Remote forcing of Pacific Ocean variability and impacts on global climate. Variability in the Pacific Ocean has a profound impact on global climate. Recent unprecedented decadal variability in the Pacific has been linked to global temperature trends and extremes, yet little is known about what drives this variability or its impact on regional climate. This project will combine observations, advanced coupled climate models and ocean-atmosphere dynamical theory to quantify remote drivers of Pacifi ....Remote forcing of Pacific Ocean variability and impacts on global climate. Variability in the Pacific Ocean has a profound impact on global climate. Recent unprecedented decadal variability in the Pacific has been linked to global temperature trends and extremes, yet little is known about what drives this variability or its impact on regional climate. This project will combine observations, advanced coupled climate models and ocean-atmosphere dynamical theory to quantify remote drivers of Pacific Ocean variability on interannual-decadal time-scales. This project aims to enhance our understanding of the modes of variability operating in this region and their impact on global and Australian climate. This will have significant benefits for the many sectors of society reliant on interseasonal-decadal climate prediction.Read moreRead less
Ocean heat content change and its impact on sea level. This project aims to improve projections of possible sea level changes. Sea level rise is among the most significant potential impacts of transient climate change around the world. Poor understanding of the way in which heat is absorbed at the sea surface and distributed by ocean circulation is a leading source of uncertainty in projections of global surface temperature and regional sea level rise by the end of this century. This project aim ....Ocean heat content change and its impact on sea level. This project aims to improve projections of possible sea level changes. Sea level rise is among the most significant potential impacts of transient climate change around the world. Poor understanding of the way in which heat is absorbed at the sea surface and distributed by ocean circulation is a leading source of uncertainty in projections of global surface temperature and regional sea level rise by the end of this century. This project aims to apply novel observational methods, complimented by numerical modelling, to quantify the drivers of recent change. This project expects to transform our ability to predict how ocean temperature and sea level will change in the future.Read moreRead less
Australian Laureate Fellowships - Grant ID: FL100100214
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$2,918,382.00
Summary
Future risks associated with ocean surface warming: impacts on climate, rainfall, carbon, and circulation. Climate change is already affecting Australia, with harsh drought, more intense bushfire seasons, increased monsoon rains, heatwaves, and warmer temperatures all a feature of the past few decades. Climate change is expected to accelerate in the future, warming the oceans at an increased rate. This will affect ocean circulation, carbon uptake and ocean-atmosphere modes, such as El Nino, with ....Future risks associated with ocean surface warming: impacts on climate, rainfall, carbon, and circulation. Climate change is already affecting Australia, with harsh drought, more intense bushfire seasons, increased monsoon rains, heatwaves, and warmer temperatures all a feature of the past few decades. Climate change is expected to accelerate in the future, warming the oceans at an increased rate. This will affect ocean circulation, carbon uptake and ocean-atmosphere modes, such as El Nino, with unknown intensity. This project will improve our preparedness for climate change by better quantifying the risks that ocean warming will transform Australia's climate, rainfall, and sea level; as well as the ocean's uptake of carbon and the global ocean circulation. This will benefit sectors including agriculture, water management, fisheries, and tourism.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE230100315
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$450,042.00
Summary
How will Pacific climate variability impact Australia in a warming world? Temperature variability in the Pacific Ocean is characterised by El Niño and La Niña (year-to-year variations) and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (decadal variations). These phenomena are primary drivers of Australian temperature and rainfall. Leveraging new tools and methods, including Single Model Initial-Condition Large Ensembles, this project will investigate drivers of these phenomena, and their impacts on Austr ....How will Pacific climate variability impact Australia in a warming world? Temperature variability in the Pacific Ocean is characterised by El Niño and La Niña (year-to-year variations) and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (decadal variations). These phenomena are primary drivers of Australian temperature and rainfall. Leveraging new tools and methods, including Single Model Initial-Condition Large Ensembles, this project will investigate drivers of these phenomena, and their impacts on Australia in a warming world. Outcomes include the quantification of how these climate phenomena modulate extreme weather events, and an understanding of how Indian and Atlantic Ocean warming affects the Pacific region. This will improve the prediction of extreme events, which is critical for preparation for their impacts.Read moreRead less
Evaluating the weather in climate models - the relationship of dynamics and rainfall over Australia in current and future climates. Climate change will be experienced by society as a change in the day-to-day weather. This project will investigate the capabilities of modern climate models in simulating the weather with a particular focus on rainfall, and will provide guidance to the use of these models in projections of the future of Australia's climate.
Unraveling ocean mixing and air-sea forcing along the Indo-Pacific exchange. This project aims to collect unprecedented observations and develop high resolution model simulations to examine changes in the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) north of Australia. This project expects to develop new knowledge of ocean-atmosphere interactions along the path of the ITF from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean, which are the powerhouse that drives changes in winds and rainfall around Australia and the entire Indo ....Unraveling ocean mixing and air-sea forcing along the Indo-Pacific exchange. This project aims to collect unprecedented observations and develop high resolution model simulations to examine changes in the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) north of Australia. This project expects to develop new knowledge of ocean-atmosphere interactions along the path of the ITF from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean, which are the powerhouse that drives changes in winds and rainfall around Australia and the entire Indo-Pacific region. Expected outcomes include a 1000-fold increase in the observations of mixing in the Indonesian seas and new understanding of the ocean-atmosphere processes that control water property change along the ITF. This should lead to strong improvement in the skill of climate forecast models in the Australian region.Read moreRead less
ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century. ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century. This Centre aims to determine how Australia’s weather is being reshaped by climate change. Through a fusion of innovative analyses of observations and fundamental science advances, alongside the development of ultra-high resolution climate models, the Centre looks to address climate science’s grand challenge in anticipating the likely weather patterns of a warmer world. The ....ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century. ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century. This Centre aims to determine how Australia’s weather is being reshaped by climate change. Through a fusion of innovative analyses of observations and fundamental science advances, alongside the development of ultra-high resolution climate models, the Centre looks to address climate science’s grand challenge in anticipating the likely weather patterns of a warmer world. The Centre strives to transform climate research by focussing on what matters most to making critical adaptation and mitigation decisions – weather change. The Centre aspires to provide Australia with the knowledge, technology, and human capital for robust evidence-based decision-making in response to future weather changes in our region and to harness weather as a resource.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE140100952
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$394,299.00
Summary
A comprehensive understanding of Australian heat waves: past, present and future. The frequency and duration of Australian heat waves is increasing. Existing theories include natural and human influences, however the relative roles of specific heat wave drivers are undefined. Using an ensemble of contemporary climate models, this project will determine the individual and combined roles of anthropogenic activities, natural forcings and internal variability that shape heat wave manifestation. Usin ....A comprehensive understanding of Australian heat waves: past, present and future. The frequency and duration of Australian heat waves is increasing. Existing theories include natural and human influences, however the relative roles of specific heat wave drivers are undefined. Using an ensemble of contemporary climate models, this project will determine the individual and combined roles of anthropogenic activities, natural forcings and internal variability that shape heat wave manifestation. Using the ability of models to simulate the appropriate mechanistic connections, plausible future projections of heat waves will be ascertained. This will be the first comprehensive analysis of changes in heat waves, providing essential resources for the adaptation, mitigation and preparedness towards future events.Read moreRead less
The puzzle of landfast sea ice: ‘Fast’ ice and near-term climate impacts. Sea ice which is held motionless against the Antarctic coastline (so-called landfast, or 'fast' ice) is hugely important for global climate and Southern Ocean ecosystems but its extent has recently plummeted. This project will address major knowledge gaps by providing novel satellite-based mapping and analysis of fast ice extent, towards enabling incorporation of fast ice into Australia’s new sea ice-ocean Earth system mod ....The puzzle of landfast sea ice: ‘Fast’ ice and near-term climate impacts. Sea ice which is held motionless against the Antarctic coastline (so-called landfast, or 'fast' ice) is hugely important for global climate and Southern Ocean ecosystems but its extent has recently plummeted. This project will address major knowledge gaps by providing novel satellite-based mapping and analysis of fast ice extent, towards enabling incorporation of fast ice into Australia’s new sea ice-ocean Earth system model for the first time – to allow assessment of its impacts on global ocean circulation and ice shelf melt. Outcomes also include new automated capability for monitoring fast ice extent, analysis of its variability and drivers, and first maps of its thickness and roughness.Read moreRead less
ARC Centres of Excellence for Climate System Science. Our capacity to assess the threat of climate change is undermined by an unacceptable level of uncertainty in the understanding and modelling of regional climates. The Centre will undertake world-class research targeting identified weaknesses in the physical, chemical and biological components of the climate system. We will engage and nurture graduate students and postdoctoral follows through a program of graduate training and mentoring to per ....ARC Centres of Excellence for Climate System Science. Our capacity to assess the threat of climate change is undermined by an unacceptable level of uncertainty in the understanding and modelling of regional climates. The Centre will undertake world-class research targeting identified weaknesses in the physical, chemical and biological components of the climate system. We will engage and nurture graduate students and postdoctoral follows through a program of graduate training and mentoring to permanently transform our understanding of climate systems science particularly for the Australian region. The key outcome will be a dramatic enhancement in national capacity to understand and project the scale of future regional climate change.Read moreRead less