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How do humans affect the nature and impacts of Australian heatwaves? This project aims to provide more accurate information on the human signal behind heatwaves and their impacts, by deriving a comprehensive approach of the detection and attribution of climate extremes. The project expects to generate robust estimates of the human signal behind high-impact events, and an innovative, versatile methodology that can be applied to any extreme event and its impacts. With the specific application to A ....How do humans affect the nature and impacts of Australian heatwaves? This project aims to provide more accurate information on the human signal behind heatwaves and their impacts, by deriving a comprehensive approach of the detection and attribution of climate extremes. The project expects to generate robust estimates of the human signal behind high-impact events, and an innovative, versatile methodology that can be applied to any extreme event and its impacts. With the specific application to Australian heatwave impacts on human health, key knowledge should support more targeted and accurate mitigation policies, minimising the strain on resources when future heatwaves occur. This should help in safeguarding future generations from deadly impacts of heatwaves.Read moreRead less
Ocean heat content change and its impact on sea level. This project aims to improve projections of possible sea level changes. Sea level rise is among the most significant potential impacts of transient climate change around the world. Poor understanding of the way in which heat is absorbed at the sea surface and distributed by ocean circulation is a leading source of uncertainty in projections of global surface temperature and regional sea level rise by the end of this century. This project aim ....Ocean heat content change and its impact on sea level. This project aims to improve projections of possible sea level changes. Sea level rise is among the most significant potential impacts of transient climate change around the world. Poor understanding of the way in which heat is absorbed at the sea surface and distributed by ocean circulation is a leading source of uncertainty in projections of global surface temperature and regional sea level rise by the end of this century. This project aims to apply novel observational methods, complimented by numerical modelling, to quantify the drivers of recent change. This project expects to transform our ability to predict how ocean temperature and sea level will change in the future.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE200100086
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$357,203.00
Summary
Will an improved land surface model enhance seasonal prediction of drought? This project aims to increase the predictability of seasonal droughts that cause major socio-economic losses in rural Australia. The capacity to predict drought, and in particular its impacts on the land, is currently limited by the low skill of forecast models. Using novel observations, the project expects to quantify the vulnerability of Australian agricultural lands to seasonal droughts. The new knowledge will then be ....Will an improved land surface model enhance seasonal prediction of drought? This project aims to increase the predictability of seasonal droughts that cause major socio-economic losses in rural Australia. The capacity to predict drought, and in particular its impacts on the land, is currently limited by the low skill of forecast models. Using novel observations, the project expects to quantify the vulnerability of Australian agricultural lands to seasonal droughts. The new knowledge will then be used to modify land processes in the Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal prediction system to better reflect Australian conditions. This project is expected to improve forecasts of high impact droughts, crucial to mitigate socio-economic risks, and should benefit decision-making in agriculture and other industries.Read moreRead less
Annual rainfall variability and extreme drought over the late Holocene. This project aims to understand long-term rainfall variability for Australia by developing a network of extended, high resolution rainfall records from tree rings. How anthropogenic changes to the atmosphere have influenced changing rainfall patterns across Australia is unclear. By extracting climatic information from tree growth rings across a latitudinal gradient from the subtropical north to the south coast of western Aus ....Annual rainfall variability and extreme drought over the late Holocene. This project aims to understand long-term rainfall variability for Australia by developing a network of extended, high resolution rainfall records from tree rings. How anthropogenic changes to the atmosphere have influenced changing rainfall patterns across Australia is unclear. By extracting climatic information from tree growth rings across a latitudinal gradient from the subtropical north to the south coast of western Australia, the project will extend hydroclimatic records by several centuries, to identify the frequency and extent of extreme droughts across the continent. Outcomes are expected to provide appropriate context for evaluating and adapting to climate change, allowing climate modellers, agricultural producers and other industries to improve forecasts of likely change for risk management.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE140100952
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$394,299.00
Summary
A comprehensive understanding of Australian heat waves: past, present and future. The frequency and duration of Australian heat waves is increasing. Existing theories include natural and human influences, however the relative roles of specific heat wave drivers are undefined. Using an ensemble of contemporary climate models, this project will determine the individual and combined roles of anthropogenic activities, natural forcings and internal variability that shape heat wave manifestation. Usin ....A comprehensive understanding of Australian heat waves: past, present and future. The frequency and duration of Australian heat waves is increasing. Existing theories include natural and human influences, however the relative roles of specific heat wave drivers are undefined. Using an ensemble of contemporary climate models, this project will determine the individual and combined roles of anthropogenic activities, natural forcings and internal variability that shape heat wave manifestation. Using the ability of models to simulate the appropriate mechanistic connections, plausible future projections of heat waves will be ascertained. This will be the first comprehensive analysis of changes in heat waves, providing essential resources for the adaptation, mitigation and preparedness towards future events.Read moreRead less
Australian Laureate Fellowships - Grant ID: FL100100214
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$2,918,382.00
Summary
Future risks associated with ocean surface warming: impacts on climate, rainfall, carbon, and circulation. Climate change is already affecting Australia, with harsh drought, more intense bushfire seasons, increased monsoon rains, heatwaves, and warmer temperatures all a feature of the past few decades. Climate change is expected to accelerate in the future, warming the oceans at an increased rate. This will affect ocean circulation, carbon uptake and ocean-atmosphere modes, such as El Nino, with ....Future risks associated with ocean surface warming: impacts on climate, rainfall, carbon, and circulation. Climate change is already affecting Australia, with harsh drought, more intense bushfire seasons, increased monsoon rains, heatwaves, and warmer temperatures all a feature of the past few decades. Climate change is expected to accelerate in the future, warming the oceans at an increased rate. This will affect ocean circulation, carbon uptake and ocean-atmosphere modes, such as El Nino, with unknown intensity. This project will improve our preparedness for climate change by better quantifying the risks that ocean warming will transform Australia's climate, rainfall, and sea level; as well as the ocean's uptake of carbon and the global ocean circulation. This will benefit sectors including agriculture, water management, fisheries, and tourism.Read moreRead less
Evaluating the weather in climate models - the relationship of dynamics and rainfall over Australia in current and future climates. Climate change will be experienced by society as a change in the day-to-day weather. This project will investigate the capabilities of modern climate models in simulating the weather with a particular focus on rainfall, and will provide guidance to the use of these models in projections of the future of Australia's climate.
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE130100663
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$375,000.00
Summary
Understanding the termination of El Nino-Southern Oscillation events. Australia's climate is extreme, with significant drought and flooding events driven by cycles of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study will improve our understanding of the termination of ENSO events and lead to better inter-seasonal climate forecasting, aiding the sectors reliant on accurate climate prediction.
Remote forcing of Pacific Ocean variability and impacts on global climate. Variability in the Pacific Ocean has a profound impact on global climate. Recent unprecedented decadal variability in the Pacific has been linked to global temperature trends and extremes, yet little is known about what drives this variability or its impact on regional climate. This project will combine observations, advanced coupled climate models and ocean-atmosphere dynamical theory to quantify remote drivers of Pacifi ....Remote forcing of Pacific Ocean variability and impacts on global climate. Variability in the Pacific Ocean has a profound impact on global climate. Recent unprecedented decadal variability in the Pacific has been linked to global temperature trends and extremes, yet little is known about what drives this variability or its impact on regional climate. This project will combine observations, advanced coupled climate models and ocean-atmosphere dynamical theory to quantify remote drivers of Pacific Ocean variability on interannual-decadal time-scales. This project aims to enhance our understanding of the modes of variability operating in this region and their impact on global and Australian climate. This will have significant benefits for the many sectors of society reliant on interseasonal-decadal climate prediction.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE130100668
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$351,805.00
Summary
The further back we look, the further forward we can see: 1,000 years of past climate to help predict future climate change in Australia. Reconstructing 1,000 years of Australia's past climate will greatly extend our understanding of natural climate variability currently estimated from weather observations. For the first time, Australian climate variations over the last millennium will be used to assess the accuracy of climate model simulations for our region.