Unraveling ocean mixing and air-sea forcing along the Indo-Pacific exchange. This project aims to collect unprecedented observations and develop high resolution model simulations to examine changes in the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) north of Australia. This project expects to develop new knowledge of ocean-atmosphere interactions along the path of the ITF from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean, which are the powerhouse that drives changes in winds and rainfall around Australia and the entire Indo ....Unraveling ocean mixing and air-sea forcing along the Indo-Pacific exchange. This project aims to collect unprecedented observations and develop high resolution model simulations to examine changes in the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) north of Australia. This project expects to develop new knowledge of ocean-atmosphere interactions along the path of the ITF from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean, which are the powerhouse that drives changes in winds and rainfall around Australia and the entire Indo-Pacific region. Expected outcomes include a 1000-fold increase in the observations of mixing in the Indonesian seas and new understanding of the ocean-atmosphere processes that control water property change along the ITF. This should lead to strong improvement in the skill of climate forecast models in the Australian region.Read moreRead less
Equator to Pole: Reconstructing tropical and Antarctic climate variability over the last millennium and their impacts on southern Australian rainfall. Water resource management is one of the greatest challenges facing sustainable agriculture and urban populations across southern Australia. Key players driving catastrophic droughts in southern Australia are the tropical Indian Ocean Dipole and polar Southern Annual Mode climate systems, which affect moisture availability and transport pathways. T ....Equator to Pole: Reconstructing tropical and Antarctic climate variability over the last millennium and their impacts on southern Australian rainfall. Water resource management is one of the greatest challenges facing sustainable agriculture and urban populations across southern Australia. Key players driving catastrophic droughts in southern Australia are the tropical Indian Ocean Dipole and polar Southern Annual Mode climate systems, which affect moisture availability and transport pathways. This collaborative research project draws together a uniquely-skilled research team to develop targeted coral, ice and cave reconstructions of these climate systems and their impacts on Australian rainfall through the last millennium. This fundamental new knowledge of the drivers of Australian rainfall variability will aid improved predictability of future changes in our valuable water resources. Read moreRead less
Ancient Ecology: Changes in penguin diet over ~30,000 years in Antarctica. This project proposes the first direct study of ancient ecology using a combination of second-generation DNA sequencing and targeted gene recovery. The food web of the Antarctic Ocean is a classic textbook example of energy and nutrient cycling in the marine environment. Although a great deal is known about the current status of this food web, understanding how this complex set of predator / prey relationships have change ....Ancient Ecology: Changes in penguin diet over ~30,000 years in Antarctica. This project proposes the first direct study of ancient ecology using a combination of second-generation DNA sequencing and targeted gene recovery. The food web of the Antarctic Ocean is a classic textbook example of energy and nutrient cycling in the marine environment. Although a great deal is known about the current status of this food web, understanding how this complex set of predator / prey relationships have changed over long periods of time is vital to understanding the nature of the system itself. The project intends to track changes in the diet of Adélie penguins from serially preserved ancient fecal (guano) remains dating back approximately 30,000 years. These remains are known to contain microscopic remnants of penguin prey.Read moreRead less
Quantifying sea-level trends and extremes along Australia's coastal margin. Multi-decadal changes in sea-level, and sea-level extremes, cannot be well quantified along most global coastlines, including Australia's, because the high spatial variability of sea-level is under-sampled by the sparse set of long, high quality tide gauge records. Satellite altimetry provides an alternative data source with greater spatial sampling, yet experiences contamination from land within tens of kilometres from ....Quantifying sea-level trends and extremes along Australia's coastal margin. Multi-decadal changes in sea-level, and sea-level extremes, cannot be well quantified along most global coastlines, including Australia's, because the high spatial variability of sea-level is under-sampled by the sparse set of long, high quality tide gauge records. Satellite altimetry provides an alternative data source with greater spatial sampling, yet experiences contamination from land within tens of kilometres from the coast and also suffers from regionally correlated biases. This project proposes to address these problems through re-tracking radar altimetry waveforms to derive new data in the coastal margin, enabling the production of new inferences on sea-level change and extremes at dramatically improved spatial resolution around Australia.Read moreRead less
Risks of rapid ocean warming at the Antarctic continental margin. This project aims to comprehensively understand the interconnected processes by which oceanic heat is circulated towards Antarctica. The risk of rapid ocean warming at the Antarctic margin is profound, with change already detected via deep ocean warming, land-ice melt, and ice shelf collapse. Yet this region remains poorly understood, with only limited observations due to both a harsh environment and a lack of standard data stream ....Risks of rapid ocean warming at the Antarctic continental margin. This project aims to comprehensively understand the interconnected processes by which oceanic heat is circulated towards Antarctica. The risk of rapid ocean warming at the Antarctic margin is profound, with change already detected via deep ocean warming, land-ice melt, and ice shelf collapse. Yet this region remains poorly understood, with only limited observations due to both a harsh environment and a lack of standard data streams. This project will use high-resolution global and regional ocean/sea-ice models to examine mechanisms for rapid warming of Antarctic continental shelf waters via both large-scale drivers and fine-scale processes, including mesoscale eddies, tide-topography interactions, and bottom boundary flows. This work will better constrain future rates of ice melt around Antarctica by providing vital knowledge of the ocean processes, dynamics, and feedbacks relating to warm water intrusion onto the Antarctic continental shelf.Read moreRead less
Understanding spread in sea level rise projections. This project aims to investigate changes in water properties and ocean circulation mechanisms leading to intermodel spread in sea-level projections. Sea-level rise projections for this 21st century largely disagree in magnitude and spatial changes between climate models, particularly in hotspots. The expected outcomes will contribute towards more rigorous constraints on the likelihood of future warming and sea-level rise projections, and are al ....Understanding spread in sea level rise projections. This project aims to investigate changes in water properties and ocean circulation mechanisms leading to intermodel spread in sea-level projections. Sea-level rise projections for this 21st century largely disagree in magnitude and spatial changes between climate models, particularly in hotspots. The expected outcomes will contribute towards more rigorous constraints on the likelihood of future warming and sea-level rise projections, and are aligned with scientific deliverables required to address key questions in support of Australia’s climate change policy. They are also aligned with international scientific deliverables in support of the World Climate Research Programme Grand Challenge on Regional Sea Level Change and Coastal Impacts.Read moreRead less
Future fisheries under climate change: the missing role of zooplankton. This project aims to develop the first global ecosystem model with a more realistic representation of zooplankton. Fish are the main source of protein for 3 billion people, yet fish catches are declining. Current models of future fish biomass under climate change do not consider the complex role that zooplankton play in transferring energy from phytoplankton to fish. By resolving the link between phytoplankton and fish, this ....Future fisheries under climate change: the missing role of zooplankton. This project aims to develop the first global ecosystem model with a more realistic representation of zooplankton. Fish are the main source of protein for 3 billion people, yet fish catches are declining. Current models of future fish biomass under climate change do not consider the complex role that zooplankton play in transferring energy from phytoplankton to fish. By resolving the link between phytoplankton and fish, this project will vastly improve estimates of future global fisheries production and regional variation. Such knowledge is vital for future food security in Australia and globally, and also to understand the role of zooplankton in carbon export in the ocean.Read moreRead less
How topography brakes the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. This project aims to observe and simulate the mechanisms that slow the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The Southern Ocean winds have increased over the last two decades while the transport of the world’s largest current remains steady or slightly decreasing. A possible explanation is negative feedback mechanisms between the winds and transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. This project will observe how eddies carry momentum from the ....How topography brakes the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. This project aims to observe and simulate the mechanisms that slow the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The Southern Ocean winds have increased over the last two decades while the transport of the world’s largest current remains steady or slightly decreasing. A possible explanation is negative feedback mechanisms between the winds and transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. This project will observe how eddies carry momentum from the wind down to the sea floor and accelerate the deep currents that drag against the rough bottom to put the brakes on this current. Since this current affects Australian rainfall patterns and agricultural output, findings could inform public policy.Read moreRead less
Australia's variable rainfall - how dry or wet can it really get? Australia’s rainfall is extremely variable, which means existing weather records are too short to calculate the true risk posed by droughts and floods. This project aims to quantify how naturally variable the rainfall coming from the Indo-Pacific mid-latitudes is, allowing recent rainfall extremes and future projections to be assessed in a long-term context. This project expects to produce new estimates of atmospheric moisture bud ....Australia's variable rainfall - how dry or wet can it really get? Australia’s rainfall is extremely variable, which means existing weather records are too short to calculate the true risk posed by droughts and floods. This project aims to quantify how naturally variable the rainfall coming from the Indo-Pacific mid-latitudes is, allowing recent rainfall extremes and future projections to be assessed in a long-term context. This project expects to produce new estimates of atmospheric moisture budgets between Australia and Antarctica based on a novel, 1000-year length reconstruction of moisture-bearing southern Indian Ocean storms. This new information is critically needed by water managers so that they can properly calculate (and ultimately prepare for) the worst of Australia’s rainfall-related risks.Read moreRead less
Is there a climatic tipping point for Antarctic Bottom Water formation? Antarctic Bottom Water plays an important role in global ocean circulation and climate and yet its formation is also highly sensitive to climate change. This project will analyse new seafloor, core and water samples from the understudied Cape Darnley, East Antarctica, collected on a voyage in early 2022. This new data will be used in combination with an improved high resolution regional ocean model, to understand modern and ....Is there a climatic tipping point for Antarctic Bottom Water formation? Antarctic Bottom Water plays an important role in global ocean circulation and climate and yet its formation is also highly sensitive to climate change. This project will analyse new seafloor, core and water samples from the understudied Cape Darnley, East Antarctica, collected on a voyage in early 2022. This new data will be used in combination with an improved high resolution regional ocean model, to understand modern and past Antarctic Bottom Water formation under different climate states (warmer and colder than present), to determine if there are climate tipping points for the shut down of Antarctic Bottom Water formation. The anticipated benefits include a better understanding of future climate change on this important water mass.Read moreRead less