New models for predicting species' distributions. This project will deliver new and more robust methods for generating the information that underpins sound conservation and resource management decisions, with particular focus on new statistical techniques to predict species' distributions. Results will be relevant to a wide range of applications including management of rare and/or threatened species and ecosystems, setting realistic targets for species and ecosystem restoration, improved managem ....New models for predicting species' distributions. This project will deliver new and more robust methods for generating the information that underpins sound conservation and resource management decisions, with particular focus on new statistical techniques to predict species' distributions. Results will be relevant to a wide range of applications including management of rare and/or threatened species and ecosystems, setting realistic targets for species and ecosystem restoration, improved management of pest species, and sustainable harvesting of species. Emphasis will be placed on transfer of knowledge to users, fostering the development of new skills among Australian environmental and conservation managers, and contributing to the sustainable use of our biodiversity.Read moreRead less
New approach to sensitivity assessment of complex simulation models for environmental management. The aims are (1) to develop new techniques that improve and extend the capabilities of sensitivity analysis of large and complex computer models for environmental management; and (2) with the industry partners, to test these techniques on models for salinity management in the Murray-Darling Basin. The project's significance is in providing new techniques able to answer a range of model users? questi ....New approach to sensitivity assessment of complex simulation models for environmental management. The aims are (1) to develop new techniques that improve and extend the capabilities of sensitivity analysis of large and complex computer models for environmental management; and (2) with the industry partners, to test these techniques on models for salinity management in the Murray-Darling Basin. The project's significance is in providing new techniques able to answer a range of model users? questions at acceptable computational cost, for complex models with outputs measured in a wide variety of ways. The outcomes will be new sensitivity assessment tools and experience of their use in an environmental application of great importance to Australia.Read moreRead less
Biodiversity planning in the urban fringe: multiple actors, multiple conservation actions, multiple uncertainties. Accelerating urbanisation in Australia is considered one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, with over 50% of threatened species occurring in urban fringe areas. Conservation planners in the urban fringe lack tools that can simultaneously prioritize multiple conservation actions by multiple actors and reconcile complicated tradeoffs. This project addresses the important gap bet ....Biodiversity planning in the urban fringe: multiple actors, multiple conservation actions, multiple uncertainties. Accelerating urbanisation in Australia is considered one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, with over 50% of threatened species occurring in urban fringe areas. Conservation planners in the urban fringe lack tools that can simultaneously prioritize multiple conservation actions by multiple actors and reconcile complicated tradeoffs. This project addresses the important gap between conservation theory and real world practice, providing tools for managers to develop optimal strategies given real-world constraints. It will result in better theories and models for designing and evaluating conservation policy and plans to ensure good biodiversity outcomes. Results will be generalisable to any complex conservation planning scenario.Read moreRead less
Evaluating environment policy that has immediate costs but long-term gains. A fundamental challenge for environmental policies is the different timescales over which ecological and financial costs and benefits occur. For example, whilst revegetation to offset land clearing incurs immediate costs, it can take decades for it to become suitable habitat for wildlife. These long time lags can lead to inefficiencies in spending and poor environmental outcomes. This project aims to develop novel approa ....Evaluating environment policy that has immediate costs but long-term gains. A fundamental challenge for environmental policies is the different timescales over which ecological and financial costs and benefits occur. For example, whilst revegetation to offset land clearing incurs immediate costs, it can take decades for it to become suitable habitat for wildlife. These long time lags can lead to inefficiencies in spending and poor environmental outcomes. This project aims to develop novel approaches for evaluating the future impacts of environmental policies and new methods for improving their design. It is intended that the methods be tested and demonstrated in the policy context of biodiversity offsetting, which is set to play a key role in nature conservation globally.Read moreRead less
Using species distribution models to make robust conservation decisions. Species distribution models inform numerous conservation decisions, from planning reserves and managing biological invasions to assessing climate change impacts. While it is often vital to predict where suitable conditions for a species occur, many applications disregard uncertainty, leading to unexpected and potentially unacceptable outcomes. This project aims to provide a definitive guide to using species distribution mod ....Using species distribution models to make robust conservation decisions. Species distribution models inform numerous conservation decisions, from planning reserves and managing biological invasions to assessing climate change impacts. While it is often vital to predict where suitable conditions for a species occur, many applications disregard uncertainty, leading to unexpected and potentially unacceptable outcomes. This project aims to provide a definitive guide to using species distribution models in conservation decision-making by integrating ecological and statistical thinking with decision theory. It seeks to describe how to explore the sources of uncertainty and their impact, develop approaches to reducing uncertainty, and evaluate the effects of uncertainty from the decision viewpoint in order to assist more robust conservation decision making.Read moreRead less
Sources of phosphorus promoting cyanobacteria in subtropical reservoirs. Water managers around Australia are currently considering various strategies to deal with water shortages. Many of these management actions have potential to impact water quality, through altering the nutrient balance within reservoirs and hence affecting nutrients available for cyanobacteria. Cyanobacteria blooms pose an increasing threat to water supplies, with economic, social and environmental costs of $150M pa in Aus ....Sources of phosphorus promoting cyanobacteria in subtropical reservoirs. Water managers around Australia are currently considering various strategies to deal with water shortages. Many of these management actions have potential to impact water quality, through altering the nutrient balance within reservoirs and hence affecting nutrients available for cyanobacteria. Cyanobacteria blooms pose an increasing threat to water supplies, with economic, social and environmental costs of $150M pa in Australia. The project will provide tools to water quality managers to assess how changes to subtropical reservoirs, such as water recycling, catchment land-use changes and increased drawdown are likely to affect nutrient budgets and cyanobacteria blooms.Read moreRead less
Deeper and broader life cycle risk assessment - extending the frontier for hybrid methodologies. This project is about combining detailed and global perspectives of environmental health risk from different fields of planning practice. It aims to improve the depth and breadth of the types of information used by government regulators and the community in decisions about the development of capital works.
Disperse or die: the evolution of dispersal ability in a changing climate. Whether or not climate change will affect a species depends upon the ability of ecological communities to track climate change. Species that rapidly shift their range in response to climate change will not be unduly affected, whereas species that are stuck in one place are at extreme risk from a changing climate (they must either adapt, or perish). We need, therefore, a firm understanding of how, and how rapidly, specie ....Disperse or die: the evolution of dispersal ability in a changing climate. Whether or not climate change will affect a species depends upon the ability of ecological communities to track climate change. Species that rapidly shift their range in response to climate change will not be unduly affected, whereas species that are stuck in one place are at extreme risk from a changing climate (they must either adapt, or perish). We need, therefore, a firm understanding of how, and how rapidly, species shift their range. This project will develop a universal framework within which to model species' responses to climate change. As such, the project will contribute greatly to how we plan for, and manage, the effects of climate change.Read moreRead less
Practical, powerful and cost effective indicators of sustainable forest management for the conservation of biological diversity. Much debate about appropriate use of Australia's forests stems from uncertainty about the magnitude of impacts on abundances and distributions of forest-dependent species, a key indicator of sustainable management under the Montreal Process. An opportunity exists to develop new tools to substantially improve our ability to detect and assess change. This project will de ....Practical, powerful and cost effective indicators of sustainable forest management for the conservation of biological diversity. Much debate about appropriate use of Australia's forests stems from uncertainty about the magnitude of impacts on abundances and distributions of forest-dependent species, a key indicator of sustainable management under the Montreal Process. An opportunity exists to develop new tools to substantially improve our ability to detect and assess change. This project will develop optimal monitoring design and analysis strategies for detecting population trends against a background of natural fluctuation and observation error. It will result in templates for coherent reporting on indicators at regional and national levels. It will exploit recent findings regarding observation error in surveys, advances in statistical control processes, simulation methods, and power analysis to develop a world-class species monitoring system.Read moreRead less
Reimagining the Australian Suburb: Biodiversity planning in urban fringe landscapes. Over 40% of nationally listed threatened ecological communities occur in urban areas. Accelerating urbanisation in Australia is considered one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. This threat will increase without a more strategic approach to conservation planning in urban environments. Protection of biodiversity in urban areas brings numerous societal benefits but involves complicated tradeoffs between com ....Reimagining the Australian Suburb: Biodiversity planning in urban fringe landscapes. Over 40% of nationally listed threatened ecological communities occur in urban areas. Accelerating urbanisation in Australia is considered one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. This threat will increase without a more strategic approach to conservation planning in urban environments. Protection of biodiversity in urban areas brings numerous societal benefits but involves complicated tradeoffs between competing land uses including housing development, agricultural production and conservation. This project builds on recent advancements in ecological modelling and mathematical optimisation to develop and test tools to facilitate transparent decisions based on optimal trade-offs between competing values. It will result in a more strategic approach to planning conservation in urban environments.Read moreRead less