Entropic Analysis of Financial Risk and Uncertainty. The recent financial crisis has shown that the financial markets are not as stable as expected, and are at risk from a lack of knowledge about new financial products and their risks. This research provides a framework to better measure and forecast financial risks by applying a set of techniques known collectively as entropic analysis as a novel way to measure the amount of information that can be extracted from historical data. The research w ....Entropic Analysis of Financial Risk and Uncertainty. The recent financial crisis has shown that the financial markets are not as stable as expected, and are at risk from a lack of knowledge about new financial products and their risks. This research provides a framework to better measure and forecast financial risks by applying a set of techniques known collectively as entropic analysis as a novel way to measure the amount of information that can be extracted from historical data. The research will facilitate the design of policies and regulations by regulatory authorities that need to evaluate new financial products, their associated risks and their impacts on the financial markets.Read moreRead less
Modelling the APEC Digital Divide. Study of private sector motivation for the uptake of ICT is helpful in formulating regulatory and commercial responses to foster growth of competitive information-using and information-producing industries. The project will help clarify the relative benefits of production and use of ICT. Additionally, in an APEC context, analysis of the digital divide will inform policy appropriate to enhancing Australia's contribution to the region. The general purpose infor ....Modelling the APEC Digital Divide. Study of private sector motivation for the uptake of ICT is helpful in formulating regulatory and commercial responses to foster growth of competitive information-using and information-producing industries. The project will help clarify the relative benefits of production and use of ICT. Additionally, in an APEC context, analysis of the digital divide will inform policy appropriate to enhancing Australia's contribution to the region. The general purpose information technology of the Internet network is fast evolving into the enabling technology of choice for innovation and creative applications of a platform for communication and electronic transactions.Read moreRead less
Measurement and Sources of Productivity Growth under Imperfect Competition. The relative growth performance of countries using net output will free comparisons from the contentious and differing adjustments made by many statistical agencies in an attempt to take account of quality change in capital goods. Thus, Australia will have a better understanding of its relative performance in terms of growth, and thus be better positioned to make informed policy decisions. In addition, whether producti ....Measurement and Sources of Productivity Growth under Imperfect Competition. The relative growth performance of countries using net output will free comparisons from the contentious and differing adjustments made by many statistical agencies in an attempt to take account of quality change in capital goods. Thus, Australia will have a better understanding of its relative performance in terms of growth, and thus be better positioned to make informed policy decisions. In addition, whether productivity growth is mainly driven by technical progress or returns to scale, and the size of monopolistic markups, has a large bearing on how we view the performance of an economy and its potential for future growth.Read moreRead less
Mining venture risk: novel econometric methods to integrate joint financial and geological uncertainty into dynamic risk forecasting measures. The mining industry is nationally important: it contributed $33,927M to Australia's GDP in 2002-3. This project's outcomes - sophisticated statistical and econometric tools - will significantly improve capability for forecasting overall risk to mining projects requiring vast upfront, irreversible investments, and contribute to its efficiency and internati ....Mining venture risk: novel econometric methods to integrate joint financial and geological uncertainty into dynamic risk forecasting measures. The mining industry is nationally important: it contributed $33,927M to Australia's GDP in 2002-3. This project's outcomes - sophisticated statistical and econometric tools - will significantly improve capability for forecasting overall risk to mining projects requiring vast upfront, irreversible investments, and contribute to its efficiency and international competitiveness. Innovative methods driven by data from complex financial and geological systems will integrate price volatility risk and orebody uncertainty in a real options framework, providing holistic, rigorous measurement of mining venture risk. Xstrata Queensland Ltd will strongly support and participate in research training of an identified candidate to deliver discoveries to the wider industry.Read moreRead less
New Approaches to the Analysis of Count Time Series. The focus of this proposal is on the analysis of data that enumerate events over time. Occurrences of such count data abound in economics and business, examples being observations on insurance claims, loan defaults and individual product demand. This project develops a suite of innovative methods for modelling and predicting event counts. The methods explicitly accommodate both the discreteness of the data and possible complexities in its evo ....New Approaches to the Analysis of Count Time Series. The focus of this proposal is on the analysis of data that enumerate events over time. Occurrences of such count data abound in economics and business, examples being observations on insurance claims, loan defaults and individual product demand. This project develops a suite of innovative methods for modelling and predicting event counts. The methods explicitly accommodate both the discreteness of the data and possible complexities in its evolution over time. In so doing, they enable both accurate inferences regarding the dynamic structure of the data to be drawn and accurate forecasts of future event counts to be produced.Read moreRead less
Robust Productivity Measurement: An Econometric Distance Function Approach. Accurate measures of productivity are required in a range of economic analyses. For example, in the assessment of the success of microeconomic reforms, or in price-cap regulation of utility and transport infrastructure firms. In this project we investigate the use of econometric distance functions as a means of obtaining improved productivity measures. This new approach addresses the main criticisms of alternative ap ....Robust Productivity Measurement: An Econometric Distance Function Approach. Accurate measures of productivity are required in a range of economic analyses. For example, in the assessment of the success of microeconomic reforms, or in price-cap regulation of utility and transport infrastructure firms. In this project we investigate the use of econometric distance functions as a means of obtaining improved productivity measures. This new approach addresses the main criticisms of alternative approaches, such as the single output restriction in the production function approach, the optimisation assumptions embedded in both the value dual approach and the Törnqvist index approach, and the statistical noise criticism of the data envelopment analysis approach.Read moreRead less
Auctions of Standing Trees. This project is critical to the ecological well-being of Australia. Standing trees are extremely important in Australia because they prevent soil erosion and stabilize water tables; their location influences fire risks. Much timber is sold at auction. While it is possible and desirable to learn how other nations use auctions to sell standing trees, information from those locales needs to be used with care when adapting it to the Australian experience. The project ....Auctions of Standing Trees. This project is critical to the ecological well-being of Australia. Standing trees are extremely important in Australia because they prevent soil erosion and stabilize water tables; their location influences fire risks. Much timber is sold at auction. While it is possible and desirable to learn how other nations use auctions to sell standing trees, information from those locales needs to be used with care when adapting it to the Australian experience. The project will use state-of-the art theory and methods to implement novel public policy. It will also develop expertise necessary to implement modern economic methods in environmental policy settings.Read moreRead less