Improved theory and practice in econometric modelling of nonlinear spatial time series. Modern Australia faces many challenges in economic and global climate changes, which require advanced statistical technologies in modeling and forecasting of econometric spatial time series data. This project will provide flexible models and methods that enable practitioners to more accurately measure and manage economic and climatic risks.
Unraveling ocean mixing and air-sea forcing along the Indo-Pacific exchange. This project aims to collect unprecedented observations and develop high resolution model simulations to examine changes in the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) north of Australia. This project expects to develop new knowledge of ocean-atmosphere interactions along the path of the ITF from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean, which are the powerhouse that drives changes in winds and rainfall around Australia and the entire Indo ....Unraveling ocean mixing and air-sea forcing along the Indo-Pacific exchange. This project aims to collect unprecedented observations and develop high resolution model simulations to examine changes in the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) north of Australia. This project expects to develop new knowledge of ocean-atmosphere interactions along the path of the ITF from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean, which are the powerhouse that drives changes in winds and rainfall around Australia and the entire Indo-Pacific region. Expected outcomes include a 1000-fold increase in the observations of mixing in the Indonesian seas and new understanding of the ocean-atmosphere processes that control water property change along the ITF. This should lead to strong improvement in the skill of climate forecast models in the Australian region.Read moreRead less
Coupling tropical cyclone and climate physics with ocean waves. It is argued that without accounting for the wave effects directly, the physics of large-scale air-sea interactions is inaccurate and incomplete. The project will introduce explicit coupling of large-scale atmospheric and oceanic phenomena with the physics of surface waves which should lead to improved predictions of tropical cyclones and climate.
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE150100985
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$390,000.00
Summary
Entrainment and interface dynamics of turbulent flows. Patches of turbulent flow such as in clouds, volcanic or bushfire plumes grow with time because they draw or entrain non-turbulent fluid through their boundaries. The quantity of fluid entrained, and why it entrains this amount, is poorly understood. This is a major bottleneck in our ability to predict how these natural phenomena evolve in time. This project aims to employ idealised laboratory models of these natural phenomena, and utilise h ....Entrainment and interface dynamics of turbulent flows. Patches of turbulent flow such as in clouds, volcanic or bushfire plumes grow with time because they draw or entrain non-turbulent fluid through their boundaries. The quantity of fluid entrained, and why it entrains this amount, is poorly understood. This is a major bottleneck in our ability to predict how these natural phenomena evolve in time. This project aims to employ idealised laboratory models of these natural phenomena, and utilise high quality measurement techniques and theoretical tools to quantify and understand the physical basis of the entrainment mechanism. The project aims to create better climate models and more accurate predictions of natural disasters associated with bushfires and volcanos.Read moreRead less
Testing a new explanation of cloud feedback on global climate. A new analysis suggests that the sensitivity of global climate to greenhouse gases is largely controlled by the upward transport of water vapour in the lower troposphere, but the analysis did not examine clouds, which must be involved for the mechanism to be valid. The aim of the proposed project is to determine whether variations in cloud implied by this new explanation are supported by observations and process models. If the explan ....Testing a new explanation of cloud feedback on global climate. A new analysis suggests that the sensitivity of global climate to greenhouse gases is largely controlled by the upward transport of water vapour in the lower troposphere, but the analysis did not examine clouds, which must be involved for the mechanism to be valid. The aim of the proposed project is to determine whether variations in cloud implied by this new explanation are supported by observations and process models. If the explanation is confirmed, then for the first time in over 30 years of intense research it will be possible to determine the long-term severity of global warming by examining the present-day atmosphere. The expected outcome of this research is to clarify how and why low clouds change in altered climates.Read moreRead less
New insights into abrupt climate change using isotope model-data fusion. There have been several episodes in the past 60,000 years during which carbon dioxide was released into the atmosphere causing significant and rapid warming. This project aims to determine the source of the carbon responsible for these warming events. This project is significant because it will increase our understanding of the processes underlying abrupt past, and potential future changes. These processes are currently und ....New insights into abrupt climate change using isotope model-data fusion. There have been several episodes in the past 60,000 years during which carbon dioxide was released into the atmosphere causing significant and rapid warming. This project aims to determine the source of the carbon responsible for these warming events. This project is significant because it will increase our understanding of the processes underlying abrupt past, and potential future changes. These processes are currently underestimated or missing in climate models. The expected outcomes include a better understanding of the non-linear responses in the climate system. This should provide significant benefits, such as an assessment of whether the smooth climate changes currently projected through to year 2100 are misleading.Read moreRead less
The dynamics of subtropical anticyclones and the connection to drought, heatwaves and bushfires in southern Australia. The aim of the project is to understand the dynamics of anticyclones (high pressure systems) in the region of southern Australia. The study of anticyclones in the region is important because of their very strong connection to rainfall in the winter, and heatwaves and bushfires in the summer, and because so little work has been done on understanding what is the defining feature o ....The dynamics of subtropical anticyclones and the connection to drought, heatwaves and bushfires in southern Australia. The aim of the project is to understand the dynamics of anticyclones (high pressure systems) in the region of southern Australia. The study of anticyclones in the region is important because of their very strong connection to rainfall in the winter, and heatwaves and bushfires in the summer, and because so little work has been done on understanding what is the defining feature of the climate of southern Australia. Understanding what controls the location and strength of these features will go a long way to explaining how the climate of southern Australia will change in a warmer world.Read moreRead less
The weather-climate connection in Australian climate change. This project aims to uncover the key links in Australia's weather-climate connection by identifying the role weather features play in influencing the slowly varying climate and how changes in one might affect changes in the other. Better describing the two-way connection between weather and climate through an innovative combination of research techniques usually applied to only one of weather or climate will allow for a more insightful ....The weather-climate connection in Australian climate change. This project aims to uncover the key links in Australia's weather-climate connection by identifying the role weather features play in influencing the slowly varying climate and how changes in one might affect changes in the other. Better describing the two-way connection between weather and climate through an innovative combination of research techniques usually applied to only one of weather or climate will allow for a more insightful assessment of climate model quality. This assessment will support the identification of the most reliable climate models and, by using them, reduce uncertainties in future predictions. Improved predictions of climate in turn will enable better decision making in all sectors of society.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE130101571
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$375,000.00
Summary
Assimilation of ocean wave interactions with sea ice into climate models. Contemporary climate models do not accurately portray ocean or atmosphere interactions where the open ocean meets the expanses of floating sea ice within the polar regions, as they lack a component to determine the size of ice floes. This project will tackle the omission directly, developing from modelling advances made in recent years.
Local climate changes caused by large bushfire burnt areas. This project aims to quantify the impact on local climate produced by large burnt areas after extreme bushfires. This project expects to generate new knowledge on these previously unexplored fire-scar induced changes to local climate. It will extend an innovative approach that combines satellite based earth observation with very high resolution regional climate modelling to quantify the impacts on land-atmosphere feedbacks and local cli ....Local climate changes caused by large bushfire burnt areas. This project aims to quantify the impact on local climate produced by large burnt areas after extreme bushfires. This project expects to generate new knowledge on these previously unexplored fire-scar induced changes to local climate. It will extend an innovative approach that combines satellite based earth observation with very high resolution regional climate modelling to quantify the impacts on land-atmosphere feedbacks and local climate. Expected outcomes of this project include enhanced methods to quantify local climate changes after extreme fires and their effect on vegetation recovery. This should provide significant benefits to the planning for, and management of, vegetation recovery after extreme fires.Read moreRead less