New methods for solving large models with rational expectations. This project aims to introduce innovative numerical methods to economic modelling to overcome computational barriers associated with the formation of expectations by households and investors. The outcome will be economic models that include sophisticated rational expectations specifications while retaining considerable industry, regional and occupational disaggregation. There will be benefits to economic policy by broadening the r ....New methods for solving large models with rational expectations. This project aims to introduce innovative numerical methods to economic modelling to overcome computational barriers associated with the formation of expectations by households and investors. The outcome will be economic models that include sophisticated rational expectations specifications while retaining considerable industry, regional and occupational disaggregation. There will be benefits to economic policy by broadening the range of questions that can be answered by detailed models and there will be benefits in the research community by providing a platform for examining dynamics in large-scale economic systems.Read moreRead less
Next generation computable general equilibrium modelling for economic policy formulation and evaluation. The aim of this project is to create the next generation of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The project will do this by introducing into the CGE framework theoretical structures and data from engineering and environmental studies as well as from modern macroeconomics, labour economics, industrial organization, monetary economics and behavioural economics. CGE models are used by ....Next generation computable general equilibrium modelling for economic policy formulation and evaluation. The aim of this project is to create the next generation of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The project will do this by introducing into the CGE framework theoretical structures and data from engineering and environmental studies as well as from modern macroeconomics, labour economics, industrial organization, monetary economics and behavioural economics. CGE models are used by governments throughout the world to assist in policy formulation. The outcome of the project will be to improve the application of CGE models in the areas of: trade; environment; energy; immigration; public finance; and macro stimulation. Read moreRead less
Improved theory and practice in econometric modelling of nonlinear spatial time series. Modern Australia faces many challenges in economic and global climate changes, which require advanced statistical technologies in modeling and forecasting of econometric spatial time series data. This project will provide flexible models and methods that enable practitioners to more accurately measure and manage economic and climatic risks.
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE170100787
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$331,000.00
Summary
Misspecification in models of economic behaviour. This project aims to develop a robust method for estimation and inference with misspecified economic models. Economic models are designed to test hypotheses about economic behaviour and to estimate key parameters, but their validity and accuracy critically depend on the assumption that the model is correctly specified, which is often doubtful. This project will reparametrize the model to allow for misspecification. The project aims to help modell ....Misspecification in models of economic behaviour. This project aims to develop a robust method for estimation and inference with misspecified economic models. Economic models are designed to test hypotheses about economic behaviour and to estimate key parameters, but their validity and accuracy critically depend on the assumption that the model is correctly specified, which is often doubtful. This project will reparametrize the model to allow for misspecification. The project aims to help modellers produce results that better inform decision-makers and help them make more reliable decisions.Read moreRead less
Robust methods for heteroscedastic regression models for time series. What is the variability of the exchange rate of the Euro to the Australian dollar? Can the use of the electrocardiogram of a patient be improved as a diagnostic tool for heart disease? A well-known limitation of the existing statistical methods for answering these types of questions is that a small proportion of extreme observations have the potential to lead to results that are more in agreement with the outliers than with bu ....Robust methods for heteroscedastic regression models for time series. What is the variability of the exchange rate of the Euro to the Australian dollar? Can the use of the electrocardiogram of a patient be improved as a diagnostic tool for heart disease? A well-known limitation of the existing statistical methods for answering these types of questions is that a small proportion of extreme observations have the potential to lead to results that are more in agreement with the outliers than with bulk of the data. As a consequence, the statistical analyses may lead to wrong conclusions. This project aims to develop new methodologies to solve this problem for a large class of studies. Applications to stock market risk, exchange rate, and diagnosis of heart diseases will illustrate the new methods.Read moreRead less
Towards a superannuation system fit for the future. Towards a superannuation system fit for the future. This project aims to develop a stochastic superannuation model and propose alternative post retirement solutions, using data-led understanding of savings habits. Funding for the increasing cost of the growing older population will, if not modelled, forecast and managed adequately, swamp all other welfare and state funded costs. To manage older age costs adequately, governments need to encourag ....Towards a superannuation system fit for the future. Towards a superannuation system fit for the future. This project aims to develop a stochastic superannuation model and propose alternative post retirement solutions, using data-led understanding of savings habits. Funding for the increasing cost of the growing older population will, if not modelled, forecast and managed adequately, swamp all other welfare and state funded costs. To manage older age costs adequately, governments need to encourage people to save and provide ways people can save—but need to better understand how people save money for their old age. This research is expected to enable the “superannuation change“ necessary for the superannuation system to remain sustainable and fund retirees to live well.Read moreRead less
Financing aged care in Australia: Mitigating fiscal gaps and maintaining intergenerational equity. Aged care has been identified as a significant contributor to the growing fiscal problems predicted for Australian government finances during the next 10 to 20 years. This project will develop the cutting-edge modelling tools needed to allow Australia to make informed decisions about possible reforms in aged care financing. It will create significant national benefits by allowing detailed assessmen ....Financing aged care in Australia: Mitigating fiscal gaps and maintaining intergenerational equity. Aged care has been identified as a significant contributor to the growing fiscal problems predicted for Australian government finances during the next 10 to 20 years. This project will develop the cutting-edge modelling tools needed to allow Australia to make informed decisions about possible reforms in aged care financing. It will create significant national benefits by allowing detailed assessment of the distributional impact of a wide range of possible reforms, including how the outcomes of any policy change will affect disadvantaged sections of our society, whether different generations will be fairly treated, and the impact by gender.Read moreRead less
Economic impact and policy implications of assisted reproductive technologies in Australia. Assisted reproductive technology (ART) is now a large scale economic activity in Australia, provided almost exclusively by private clinics. The outcome of ART programs, involving the birth of one in 30 children, has a profound effect on the health of the nation. Policy and funding frameworks influence how ART is practiced and the subsequent health outcomes of ART children, yet there is a lack of evidence ....Economic impact and policy implications of assisted reproductive technologies in Australia. Assisted reproductive technology (ART) is now a large scale economic activity in Australia, provided almost exclusively by private clinics. The outcome of ART programs, involving the birth of one in 30 children, has a profound effect on the health of the nation. Policy and funding frameworks influence how ART is practiced and the subsequent health outcomes of ART children, yet there is a lack of evidence to guide government and providers about effective, equitable and safe approaches to funding ART. This research will address that need, thereby fostering a healthy start to life and preventative healthcare; supporting the National Research Priority, promoting and maintaining good health, for ART children, their families and the community.Read moreRead less
Forecasting when model stability is uncertain. Forecasts of macroeconomic and financial variables play a crucial role in forward planning undertaken by government and financial institutions, but the predictability of these series is often context and time specific, making standard forecasting techniques unreliable. This project aims to develop new modelling and forecasting techniques that can adapt to structural changes in the model soon after they occur. It aims to derive relevant econometric t ....Forecasting when model stability is uncertain. Forecasts of macroeconomic and financial variables play a crucial role in forward planning undertaken by government and financial institutions, but the predictability of these series is often context and time specific, making standard forecasting techniques unreliable. This project aims to develop new modelling and forecasting techniques that can adapt to structural changes in the model soon after they occur. It aims to derive relevant econometric theory, use simulations to study the properties of the proposed techniques, as well as apply these new techniques to observed data.Read moreRead less
Understanding the sources of secular stagnation. This project aims to examine why long-run projections of output, inflation, and interest rates have become lower for many economies in recent years resulting in a phenomenon often referred to as secular stagnation. The project intends to develop new econometric tools to account for sources of structural breaks and stochastic trends in order to quantify the roles of productivity growth, financial shocks, demographics, and inflation expectations in ....Understanding the sources of secular stagnation. This project aims to examine why long-run projections of output, inflation, and interest rates have become lower for many economies in recent years resulting in a phenomenon often referred to as secular stagnation. The project intends to develop new econometric tools to account for sources of structural breaks and stochastic trends in order to quantify the roles of productivity growth, financial shocks, demographics, and inflation expectations in driving secular stagnation. Expected outcomes include findings that will help guide macroeconomic policy responses to stagnation and new econometric tools that will support future applied research on changes in the behaviour of macroeconomic variables.Read moreRead less