Goal pursuit decisions under environmental and social uncertainty. This project aims to develop an integrative computational model that explains how people prioritise the allocation of resources to different goals in the face of uncertainty. The project seeks to test a new theory through a series of experiments in which participants pursue goals by themselves in unpredictable environments, or in competition against an opponent. Expected outcomes include an integrated theory that accounts for the ....Goal pursuit decisions under environmental and social uncertainty. This project aims to develop an integrative computational model that explains how people prioritise the allocation of resources to different goals in the face of uncertainty. The project seeks to test a new theory through a series of experiments in which participants pursue goals by themselves in unpredictable environments, or in competition against an opponent. Expected outcomes include an integrated theory that accounts for the effects of both environmental and social uncertainty in the pursuit of multiple goals. Intended benefits include the development of computational models that can simulate human decision making in complex environments, analyse new concepts of operation, redesign work roles, and identify factors that reduce risk in decision-making.Read moreRead less
Modelling human decision making in complex environments. The project aims to extend quantitative psychological models of simple choice tasks to decision-making with complex stimuli in complex environments. The new formal models are designed to provide a comprehensive account of behaviour, including the choices that are made, how long it takes to make them, and how choices and choice times vary within and between decision-makers. The models would explain how people adapt to changes in task demand ....Modelling human decision making in complex environments. The project aims to extend quantitative psychological models of simple choice tasks to decision-making with complex stimuli in complex environments. The new formal models are designed to provide a comprehensive account of behaviour, including the choices that are made, how long it takes to make them, and how choices and choice times vary within and between decision-makers. The models would explain how people adapt to changes in task demands when dealing with multiple stimuli or performing multiple tasks concurrently under time pressure. The project aims to provide the basic research that is needed to extend psychological models of choice to complex ‘real-world’ tasks, such air traffic control and maritime surveillance.Read moreRead less
Information seeking, cognition, and individual differences. The public now has access to vast amounts of scientific knowledge and information on the internet and in other new media. Paradoxically, this increasing availability of knowledge has been accompanied by the increasing traction of pseudoscientific misinformation. This project explores the reasons underlying those trends and seeks solutions.
The Psychology of Misinformation—Towards A Theory-driven Understanding. The project aims to develop a psychological theory of misinformation effects. Misinformation influences people’s memory, reasoning and decision-making even after corrections – it thus poses a significant challenge for science and society. Through the combination of systematic experimentation with theory-driven computational modelling, the project will strive to concurrently consider individual-level cognition and the impact ....The Psychology of Misinformation—Towards A Theory-driven Understanding. The project aims to develop a psychological theory of misinformation effects. Misinformation influences people’s memory, reasoning and decision-making even after corrections – it thus poses a significant challenge for science and society. Through the combination of systematic experimentation with theory-driven computational modelling, the project will strive to concurrently consider individual-level cognition and the impact of sociocultural context. It is anticipated that this novel integrative approach will substantially expand our understanding of misinformation effects, and that this theoretical progress will result in the formulation of specific communication strategies to reduce the impact of misinformation on society.Read moreRead less
Developing a integrated memory-based model of evaluation and choice. People's judgements and choices are unstable. This project intends to examine one potential source of this instability: the memories that come to mind when people are evaluating choices. Many of the choices we make in our everyday lives are made on the basis of remembered information, and yet theories of evaluation and choice typically do not account for the role of memory, or provide only a cursory account of its role. In the ....Developing a integrated memory-based model of evaluation and choice. People's judgements and choices are unstable. This project intends to examine one potential source of this instability: the memories that come to mind when people are evaluating choices. Many of the choices we make in our everyday lives are made on the basis of remembered information, and yet theories of evaluation and choice typically do not account for the role of memory, or provide only a cursory account of its role. In the project, people will be presented with value information, and the project plans to examine how that information is retrieved from memory and then used to evaluate options and make decisions. Expected project outcomes would provide a coherent model that provides an integrated understanding of the role of memory in judgement and choice.Read moreRead less
Developing group-based elicitation methods to improve decision making. This project aims to develop an elicitation methodology enabling multiple members of a team to contribute to the same technical problem - enabling expertise to be accurately combined while avoiding group and individual sources of bias. Good elicitation methods minimise bias in estimates and forecasts - which otherwise erode value and lead to sub-optimal decision making. Existing methods, however, ignore group structures; that ....Developing group-based elicitation methods to improve decision making. This project aims to develop an elicitation methodology enabling multiple members of a team to contribute to the same technical problem - enabling expertise to be accurately combined while avoiding group and individual sources of bias. Good elicitation methods minimise bias in estimates and forecasts - which otherwise erode value and lead to sub-optimal decision making. Existing methods, however, ignore group structures; that is that decisions made by, or on, the advice of teams have different characteristics than individual decisions and often preclude the use of methods designed to limit individuals' biases. By encoding the method into a computerised tool the project will assist public and private sector enterprises to improve group decision making.Read moreRead less
The role of episodic memory in imagining and planning for the future. For future planning we draw on past experiences. In many cases, past experiences are used to imagine novel potential scenarios yet to be experienced. This project will examine in detail the role of memory in imagining possible futures and planning for those possibilities, drawing on our contemporary understanding of memory as captured in computational models of human memory. By controlling the information that people encode in ....The role of episodic memory in imagining and planning for the future. For future planning we draw on past experiences. In many cases, past experiences are used to imagine novel potential scenarios yet to be experienced. This project will examine in detail the role of memory in imagining possible futures and planning for those possibilities, drawing on our contemporary understanding of memory as captured in computational models of human memory. By controlling the information that people encode into memory, and thus determining the building blocks from which people build simulations of the future, this project will gain valuable data that will be used to develop a detailed and precise computational model of the role of memory mechanisms and representations in imagining and planning.Read moreRead less
Modelling How Humans Adapt to Task Demands in Safety-Critical Workplaces . This project aims to explain how human operators make decisions in complex work environments that require multiple tasks to be completed under time pressure. This project expects to achieve a significant theoretical and practical advance by developing and testing a computational model of the psychological processes that allow operators to adapt to the types of workplace task demands that can increase human error and the ....Modelling How Humans Adapt to Task Demands in Safety-Critical Workplaces . This project aims to explain how human operators make decisions in complex work environments that require multiple tasks to be completed under time pressure. This project expects to achieve a significant theoretical and practical advance by developing and testing a computational model of the psychological processes that allow operators to adapt to the types of workplace task demands that can increase human error and the risk of accidents. The expected outcome is a model that can explain operator decision-making and predict the conditions where operators are more likely to make delayed responses or errors. This should provide significant benefits by informing psychological theory and potentially reducing workplace incidents and accidents.Read moreRead less
Combating Misinformation – Designing a Toolkit to Address a Global Problem. Misinformation impairs people’s cognition – their memory, reasoning and judgements – even if credible corrections are issued; it therefore poses a significant threat to evidence-based practice and policy. This project aims to develop novel psychological interventions to reduce the impact of misinformation, based on an experimental research program designed to systematically assess the effects of various types of misinfor ....Combating Misinformation – Designing a Toolkit to Address a Global Problem. Misinformation impairs people’s cognition – their memory, reasoning and judgements – even if credible corrections are issued; it therefore poses a significant threat to evidence-based practice and policy. This project aims to develop novel psychological interventions to reduce the impact of misinformation, based on an experimental research program designed to systematically assess the effects of various types of misinformation on cognition and behaviour. The expected outcome is the development of new knowledge regarding misinformation processing and communication and its translation into a toolkit for practical application. This promises to improve individual and public decision making and foster a culture of accurate information exchange.Read moreRead less
Creating a climate for change: from cognition to consensus. Climate change is a significant contemporary issue, and communicating the complexities of the terminology and the data is a major modern challenge. This project will apply principles of cognitive and social psychology to determine the most effective methods for promoting an understanding of the scientific dimensions of the issue. The research is significant because it provides a coherent theoretical framework for identifying the psychol ....Creating a climate for change: from cognition to consensus. Climate change is a significant contemporary issue, and communicating the complexities of the terminology and the data is a major modern challenge. This project will apply principles of cognitive and social psychology to determine the most effective methods for promoting an understanding of the scientific dimensions of the issue. The research is significant because it provides a coherent theoretical framework for identifying the psychological mechanisms underlying cognition and commitment at both an individual and collective level. The outcome will be a body of evidence that will inform strategies and policies for communication of complex scientific questions.Read moreRead less