Non- and Semi-Parametric Panel Data Econometrics: Theory and Applications. This project proposes to tackle several very important and difficult issues in modelling general climatological, economic and financial panel data that involve possible trending components. This project seeks to establish some general asymptotic theory for model estimation and specification technologies that are suited to such general nonlinear panel data that may be stochastically non-stationary and endogenous. The resea ....Non- and Semi-Parametric Panel Data Econometrics: Theory and Applications. This project proposes to tackle several very important and difficult issues in modelling general climatological, economic and financial panel data that involve possible trending components. This project seeks to establish some general asymptotic theory for model estimation and specification technologies that are suited to such general nonlinear panel data that may be stochastically non-stationary and endogenous. The research outcomes of this project are expected to be applicable in evaluating and improving empirical model building and forecasting from better models in climatology, economics and finance with possible endogeneity and nonlinearity and non-stationarity.Read moreRead less
Improving likelihood estimators: theory and applications to analysing productivity and efficiency and forecasting of probability of economic recession. This project aims to improve one of the most popular statistical methods to empower applied researchers with a more reliable analytical tool. This project will develop mathematical theory and use it to analyse patterns of economic growth, productivity and efficiency of countries. This can be used to forecast probability of entering economic reces ....Improving likelihood estimators: theory and applications to analysing productivity and efficiency and forecasting of probability of economic recession. This project aims to improve one of the most popular statistical methods to empower applied researchers with a more reliable analytical tool. This project will develop mathematical theory and use it to analyse patterns of economic growth, productivity and efficiency of countries. This can be used to forecast probability of entering economic recession, with a focus on Australia.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE120101106
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$375,000.00
Summary
Economic rise and decline - as seen from space. This research evaluates the accuracy of night-light based measures of local economic change. Satellite images of night-light cover the entire inhabited regions of the world, thus establishing whether these data can be used to supplement traditional measures of economic activity in countries with weak statistical systems would be a global public good.
Large dynamic time-varying models for structural macroeconomic inference. This project aims to broaden the range of macroeconomic models that have an integrated capacity for both greater realism and efficiency in analysis. This approach will be applied to two contexts at the forefront of current macroeconomic research, the effects of noisy productivity signals on business cycles and the effects of fiscal policy shocks. Flexible macro-econometric models underpin accurate inference by economists ....Large dynamic time-varying models for structural macroeconomic inference. This project aims to broaden the range of macroeconomic models that have an integrated capacity for both greater realism and efficiency in analysis. This approach will be applied to two contexts at the forefront of current macroeconomic research, the effects of noisy productivity signals on business cycles and the effects of fiscal policy shocks. Flexible macro-econometric models underpin accurate inference by economists and policymakers and the project outputs should provide widespread and significant benefits by improving policy and boosting Australia’s comparative advantage.Read moreRead less
Macroeconomic and Financial Modelling in an Era of Extremes. This project aims to develop methods to allow workhorse models in economics and finance to better reflect tail events--low probability extreme events, such as the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. It intends to address fundamental technical challenges in the estimation of such models, develop a coherent framework for counterfactual analysis of these models and propose methods to apply these models in a big-data environ ....Macroeconomic and Financial Modelling in an Era of Extremes. This project aims to develop methods to allow workhorse models in economics and finance to better reflect tail events--low probability extreme events, such as the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. It intends to address fundamental technical challenges in the estimation of such models, develop a coherent framework for counterfactual analysis of these models and propose methods to apply these models in a big-data environment. Expected outcomes include new insights into the transmission of tail risks in the global economic and financial system. This should provide significant benefits, including guidance to Australian and international policymakers charged with maintaining stability in the face of extreme events.Read moreRead less
Econometric model building and estimation. This project aims to tackle issues in econometric model building and estimation under cross sectional dependence, heterogeneity and nonlinearity. This project will seek to establish flexible econometric models associated with estimation methods and user-friendly computational techniques to try to solve real world problems. The research outcomes are expected to be useful to empirical researchers in evaluating and improving model building and forecasting ....Econometric model building and estimation. This project aims to tackle issues in econometric model building and estimation under cross sectional dependence, heterogeneity and nonlinearity. This project will seek to establish flexible econometric models associated with estimation methods and user-friendly computational techniques to try to solve real world problems. The research outcomes are expected to be useful to empirical researchers in evaluating and improving model building and forecasting from better models in climatology, demography, economics, environment, finance, machine learning and neural networks.Read moreRead less
Natural resources and ecosystem services in productivity measurement. This project aims to understand sources of productivity growth through addressing theoretical and practical problems in the economics of natural resources and ecosystem services. It will study the valuation of non-renewable resources and ecosystem services, acknowledging their contributions to economic activity and the effect on national income from their depletion and degradation. It will develop approaches to incorporating n ....Natural resources and ecosystem services in productivity measurement. This project aims to understand sources of productivity growth through addressing theoretical and practical problems in the economics of natural resources and ecosystem services. It will study the valuation of non-renewable resources and ecosystem services, acknowledging their contributions to economic activity and the effect on national income from their depletion and degradation. It will develop approaches to incorporating natural resource depletion and degradation into productivity analysis with the aim of better informing environmental, innovation and industry policy.Read moreRead less
Productivity Measurement, Drivers and Trends: A New Analytical Framework. Significant problems exist in the measurement of productivity and hence its understanding, impeding informed policy formulation. This project aims to advance new concepts and methods for productivity measurement that have the potential to improve policy and national welfare, with special attention to: productivity in the mining industry, which has been a particular problem for Australia; the increased holding of precaution ....Productivity Measurement, Drivers and Trends: A New Analytical Framework. Significant problems exist in the measurement of productivity and hence its understanding, impeding informed policy formulation. This project aims to advance new concepts and methods for productivity measurement that have the potential to improve policy and national welfare, with special attention to: productivity in the mining industry, which has been a particular problem for Australia; the increased holding of precautionary cash balances by firms during financial crises, representing underutilised resources; examination of firm productivity dynamics, without assuming the possibility of disappearing technology capability that is used in standard models; and a more realistic approach to capitalisation of research and development and other intangible investments.Read moreRead less
The Economic Measurement of Property Markets: Prices, Bubbles, Economic Growth and Productivity. In collaboration with property fund manager and investor CorVal, and with the participation of the industry leader in benchmarking, property research and metrics, IPD Australia and New Zealand, this project aims to examine the economic measurement of property markets. Mathematical and statistical models aim to be developed for exploiting a large quantity of data made available at aggregate (economy w ....The Economic Measurement of Property Markets: Prices, Bubbles, Economic Growth and Productivity. In collaboration with property fund manager and investor CorVal, and with the participation of the industry leader in benchmarking, property research and metrics, IPD Australia and New Zealand, this project aims to examine the economic measurement of property markets. Mathematical and statistical models aim to be developed for exploiting a large quantity of data made available at aggregate (economy wide) and disaggregate (local area government) levels. The findings aim to contribute to an improved understanding of property price bubbles, concepts of market disequilibrium, and the role of the property market as a source of economic growth and productivity.Read moreRead less
Understanding the sources of secular stagnation. This project aims to examine why long-run projections of output, inflation, and interest rates have become lower for many economies in recent years resulting in a phenomenon often referred to as secular stagnation. The project intends to develop new econometric tools to account for sources of structural breaks and stochastic trends in order to quantify the roles of productivity growth, financial shocks, demographics, and inflation expectations in ....Understanding the sources of secular stagnation. This project aims to examine why long-run projections of output, inflation, and interest rates have become lower for many economies in recent years resulting in a phenomenon often referred to as secular stagnation. The project intends to develop new econometric tools to account for sources of structural breaks and stochastic trends in order to quantify the roles of productivity growth, financial shocks, demographics, and inflation expectations in driving secular stagnation. Expected outcomes include findings that will help guide macroeconomic policy responses to stagnation and new econometric tools that will support future applied research on changes in the behaviour of macroeconomic variables.Read moreRead less