Modelling health: Reporting behaviour and misclassification using survey data. Empirical models based on large scale survey data sets are used by health economists to inform policymakers. However, in the case of sensitive topics, a potential for survey misreporting may lead to inaccurate estimates of aberrant behaviours. To date, little work has been done analysing the extent and consequences of inaccurate reporting, especially within health economics. By addressing areas where potential for mis ....Modelling health: Reporting behaviour and misclassification using survey data. Empirical models based on large scale survey data sets are used by health economists to inform policymakers. However, in the case of sensitive topics, a potential for survey misreporting may lead to inaccurate estimates of aberrant behaviours. To date, little work has been done analysing the extent and consequences of inaccurate reporting, especially within health economics. By addressing areas where potential for misinformation is high, the overall quality of results will be enhanced. This research will be submitted to highly ranked health economics and econometrics journals to be made available to relevant policymakers intent on ensuring a healthy society.Read moreRead less
FINANCIAL (IN)SECURITY IN LATER LIFE: WOMEN, WORK , SUPERANNUATION AND AUSTRALIA'S RETIREMENT INCOME SYSTEM. An ageing population is expected to contribute to significant demographic, social and labour market shifts, which, together with fiscal stresses, will affect the future mix of state and private retirement income provisions. However, gender-based issues associated with these changes remain under-researched. Using a life-course approach qualitative methodologies will be used to explore inte ....FINANCIAL (IN)SECURITY IN LATER LIFE: WOMEN, WORK , SUPERANNUATION AND AUSTRALIA'S RETIREMENT INCOME SYSTEM. An ageing population is expected to contribute to significant demographic, social and labour market shifts, which, together with fiscal stresses, will affect the future mix of state and private retirement income provisions. However, gender-based issues associated with these changes remain under-researched. Using a life-course approach qualitative methodologies will be used to explore inter-relationships between: women's workforce participation, education, marital status, fertility, financial literacy; retirement incomes;concessions, benefits; and women's economic security in later years. The research will make a significant contribution to the development and implementation of retirement income policy and the debate on gender equity in the labour market. Read moreRead less
Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rates. Exchange rate movements are important elements of Australia's economic environment. Protectionist interests in the US and Europe, constrained by WTO trade rules, accuse East Asian economies of deliberate undervaluation. While exchange rate movements are not readily predictable in the short run, long run changes in underlying real exchange rates are amenable to economic analysis using structural models. The clearer understanding of these forces, toward ....Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rates. Exchange rate movements are important elements of Australia's economic environment. Protectionist interests in the US and Europe, constrained by WTO trade rules, accuse East Asian economies of deliberate undervaluation. While exchange rate movements are not readily predictable in the short run, long run changes in underlying real exchange rates are amenable to economic analysis using structural models. The clearer understanding of these forces, toward which this project is directed, will better guide investment in the region, including in Australia, and more importantly, it will better inform future policy debates surrounding currency movements.Read moreRead less
Designing better soil quality indexes to improve land and environmental management. This project will develop sound methods for capturing diverse soil quality attributes in summary soil quality indexes to facilitate wiser land and environmental management. The project will generate benefits through: 1) improvements in the sustainability of our agricultural industries by providing better tools for matching soils with crops and for more efficient chemical input use on farms, 3) improvements in env ....Designing better soil quality indexes to improve land and environmental management. This project will develop sound methods for capturing diverse soil quality attributes in summary soil quality indexes to facilitate wiser land and environmental management. The project will generate benefits through: 1) improvements in the sustainability of our agricultural industries by providing better tools for matching soils with crops and for more efficient chemical input use on farms, 3) improvements in environmental water quality through reductions in nonpoint source pollution from agriculture, 3) tools for monitoring the recovery of degraded agricultural or mining soil resources, and 4) better conservation contract design.Read moreRead less
The Future of Australian Mineral Exports. Australia is among the world's largest exporters of steelmaking raw materials, specifically iron ore, coking coal and manganese. This project will develop an integrated econometric model of the global steel industry to forecast future trends in global steel production and the associated demand for raw materials. The results of this research will not only assist Australian mineral exporters in achieving better outcomes in annual pricing negotiations by im ....The Future of Australian Mineral Exports. Australia is among the world's largest exporters of steelmaking raw materials, specifically iron ore, coking coal and manganese. This project will develop an integrated econometric model of the global steel industry to forecast future trends in global steel production and the associated demand for raw materials. The results of this research will not only assist Australian mineral exporters in achieving better outcomes in annual pricing negotiations by improving market knowledge, but also help focus their longer term marketing strategies. The extensive global mine database to be assembled as part of the network flow component of this model will also allow Australian mineral exporters to assess their competitive position relative to foreign producers.Read moreRead less
Forecasting Risk Thresholds for Portfolio Management and Regulation. The project will develop new models and methods for dynamic risk modelling, assessment of portfolio risk, and forecasting of portfolio risk thresholds. These novel methods will have extensive applications across investment portfolios for banks and financial institutions globally. The techniques will feature a dynamic updating of risk estimates, and more accurate forecasting of portfolio risk, the correlations of portfolio asset ....Forecasting Risk Thresholds for Portfolio Management and Regulation. The project will develop new models and methods for dynamic risk modelling, assessment of portfolio risk, and forecasting of portfolio risk thresholds. These novel methods will have extensive applications across investment portfolios for banks and financial institutions globally. The techniques will feature a dynamic updating of risk estimates, and more accurate forecasting of portfolio risk, the correlations of portfolio asset classes, and Value at Risk (VaR) thresholds. The innovative methods and models will permit both financial institutions and regulatory authorities to model VaR thresholds more accurately, and enable investment managers to regulate and benchmark their portfolios more effectively against international best practice.
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Analysing global consumption patterns with a large number of commodities. This project provides estimates of the income and price sensitivities of consumption, for a large number of finely distinguished goods, across most countries. These, together with new ways of enhancing economic data (by recognising quality improvements of goods and uncertainty), will be of value to researchers, government and business.
Modelling non-linear price dynamics of primary commodities that are affected by seasonality, significant storage costs, and slow adjustment. Australia's economy relies substantially on exports of commodities. However, recent volatility of commodity prices has created tremendous uncertainties for traders, producers and consumers of those commodities. This adversely affects our national economy through the disruption of agricultural and mining production, and also more broadly impacts on investmen ....Modelling non-linear price dynamics of primary commodities that are affected by seasonality, significant storage costs, and slow adjustment. Australia's economy relies substantially on exports of commodities. However, recent volatility of commodity prices has created tremendous uncertainties for traders, producers and consumers of those commodities. This adversely affects our national economy through the disruption of agricultural and mining production, and also more broadly impacts on investment, employment and gross domestic income. This research will model more accurately the complex dynamics of primary commodity prices and their inter-market linkages, which will allow traders, producers and consumers to better forecast commodity price movements and protect themselves through inventory management, hedging and long-run production planning.Read moreRead less
Economic Aspects of Wool in Western Australia. Over the past 15 years, the wool industry in WA has gone from bust to boom.. This project develops a general equilibrium model to analyse the impact of the world economic conditions on the wool industry and the WA economy in general. We will also investigate the reasons for the systematically lower wool prices in Fremantle and the interactions between Australian wool prices and exchange rates. The results will enhance understanding of the industry, ....Economic Aspects of Wool in Western Australia. Over the past 15 years, the wool industry in WA has gone from bust to boom.. This project develops a general equilibrium model to analyse the impact of the world economic conditions on the wool industry and the WA economy in general. We will also investigate the reasons for the systematically lower wool prices in Fremantle and the interactions between Australian wool prices and exchange rates. The results will enhance understanding of the industry, and offer insights as to how it might be made less volatile in the future by providing valuable information to woolgrowers and policy makers.Read moreRead less
Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices in a Volatile Business Environment. In recent years, many Australian companies have been hurt by the large movements in the value of the Australian dollar, by their inability to forecast these movements, and by deficiencies of their hedging strategies to deal with foreign-exchange risk. This project will develop an alternative way of forecasting the $A in real time using a new methodology, based on purchasing power parity, that shows much promise. Additional ....Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices in a Volatile Business Environment. In recent years, many Australian companies have been hurt by the large movements in the value of the Australian dollar, by their inability to forecast these movements, and by deficiencies of their hedging strategies to deal with foreign-exchange risk. This project will develop an alternative way of forecasting the $A in real time using a new methodology, based on purchasing power parity, that shows much promise. Additionally, an innovative way to analyse gold prices will be further developed, which when combined with the $A forecasts, offers a potentially valuable method of hedging foreign exchange and commodity price risk faced by Australian gold producers.Read moreRead less