New Bayesian methodology for understanding complex systems using hidden Markov models and expert opinion, environmental, robotics and genomics applications. This project aims to merge four areas of intense international interest in describing complex systems: hidden Markov models and mixtures, semi-parametric and nonparametric approaches, true combination of expert opinion with data, and new Bayesian computational methods based on perfect sampling and particle sampling. The project will signific ....New Bayesian methodology for understanding complex systems using hidden Markov models and expert opinion, environmental, robotics and genomics applications. This project aims to merge four areas of intense international interest in describing complex systems: hidden Markov models and mixtures, semi-parametric and nonparametric approaches, true combination of expert opinion with data, and new Bayesian computational methods based on perfect sampling and particle sampling. The project will significantly contribute to statistical methodology and its ability to inform about real-world problems. A strong focus on applications to genomics, robotics and environmental modelling will bring immediate research and monetary benefit for industry. Expected outcomes include enhanced cross-disciplinary and international linkages, publications, industry-funded projects and highly trained graduates.Read moreRead less
Large dynamic time-varying models for structural macroeconomic inference. This project aims to broaden the range of macroeconomic models that have an integrated capacity for both greater realism and efficiency in analysis. This approach will be applied to two contexts at the forefront of current macroeconomic research, the effects of noisy productivity signals on business cycles and the effects of fiscal policy shocks. Flexible macro-econometric models underpin accurate inference by economists ....Large dynamic time-varying models for structural macroeconomic inference. This project aims to broaden the range of macroeconomic models that have an integrated capacity for both greater realism and efficiency in analysis. This approach will be applied to two contexts at the forefront of current macroeconomic research, the effects of noisy productivity signals on business cycles and the effects of fiscal policy shocks. Flexible macro-econometric models underpin accurate inference by economists and policymakers and the project outputs should provide widespread and significant benefits by improving policy and boosting Australia’s comparative advantage.Read moreRead less
Understanding macroeconomic fluctuations with unobserved networks. Whilst empirical evidence suggests that firm-level shocks can have large aggregate effects, via network connections, macroeconomic policies have mostly an aggregate nature. This project aims to build a new framework to disentangle aggregate shocks from shocks to individual units. The major innovations are i) to infer the network from the data and ii) to jointly estimate aggregate factors and network effects. Expected outcomes are ....Understanding macroeconomic fluctuations with unobserved networks. Whilst empirical evidence suggests that firm-level shocks can have large aggregate effects, via network connections, macroeconomic policies have mostly an aggregate nature. This project aims to build a new framework to disentangle aggregate shocks from shocks to individual units. The major innovations are i) to infer the network from the data and ii) to jointly estimate aggregate factors and network effects. Expected outcomes are i) measures of systemic risk and ii) a theoretical framework to study the optimality of aggregate versus sectoral stabilization policies. Benefits include a better understanding of macroeconomic fluctuations in Australia and proposed economic policies to mitigate large and persistent declines in employment and GDP.Read moreRead less
Identification of causal variants for complex traits. The aim of this project is to identify causal variants for complex traits in cattle and humans. Although most important traits in agriculture, medicine and evolution are complex traits, very few of the genetic variants affecting these traits are known and this undermines our understanding of how genetic variants affect a trait and practical uses of this knowledge. Huge datasets of individuals with genome sequence and phenotypes and new statis ....Identification of causal variants for complex traits. The aim of this project is to identify causal variants for complex traits in cattle and humans. Although most important traits in agriculture, medicine and evolution are complex traits, very few of the genetic variants affecting these traits are known and this undermines our understanding of how genetic variants affect a trait and practical uses of this knowledge. Huge datasets of individuals with genome sequence and phenotypes and new statistical methods provide the opportunity to close this gap. The outcome will be identification of many genomic variants causing variation in complex traits. This will benefit scientific understanding of complex traits and the ability to predict traits for individuals from their genome sequence.Read moreRead less
Resilience of eucalypts to future droughts. This project aims to examine how resilient Eucalyptus species are to future droughts by combining data synthesis, manipulative experiments and modelling. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency, magnitude and duration of future droughts, with major environmental and socio-economic consequences for Australia. Current predictive capacity is extremely limited: experiments are limited in scale and cannot capture important global change interac ....Resilience of eucalypts to future droughts. This project aims to examine how resilient Eucalyptus species are to future droughts by combining data synthesis, manipulative experiments and modelling. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency, magnitude and duration of future droughts, with major environmental and socio-economic consequences for Australia. Current predictive capacity is extremely limited: experiments are limited in scale and cannot capture important global change interactions, whilst models do not represent the functional characteristics and adaptions of eucalypts. This project will develop a strong evidence- and process-based understanding to quantify the functional behaviour of drought-adapted Eucalyptus species and leverage this insight to make future model projections.Read moreRead less
Southern Ocean aerosols: sources, sinks and impact on cloud properties. This project aims to provide fundamental process-level understanding of atmospheric aerosol processes over the Southern Ocean, a region that has a profound influence on the Australian and global climate and where climate models perform poorly. Comprehensive observations during 3 Southern Ocean voyages and land-based measurements will enhance our knowledge of aerosols and cloud formation in that region and provide much-needed ....Southern Ocean aerosols: sources, sinks and impact on cloud properties. This project aims to provide fundamental process-level understanding of atmospheric aerosol processes over the Southern Ocean, a region that has a profound influence on the Australian and global climate and where climate models perform poorly. Comprehensive observations during 3 Southern Ocean voyages and land-based measurements will enhance our knowledge of aerosols and cloud formation in that region and provide much-needed data for improving global climate models. Expected outcomes include more accurate seasonal and latitudinal representations of Southern Ocean aerosol populations, properties and sources. The main benefit includes improvements in weather forecasting and future climate projection for Australia and the Southern Hemisphere.Read moreRead less
The effect of native invasions on Australian fisheries species. This project aims to forecast climate-related changes in the diversity, distribution and abundance of fisheries species. In a changing world where many people depend on oceans for food and livelihood, predicting the future distribution of fisheries species is a challenge. Native invasions and ocean warming are stressing inshore fisheries species, but rigorous empirical data and models that can reliably forecast these effects are lac ....The effect of native invasions on Australian fisheries species. This project aims to forecast climate-related changes in the diversity, distribution and abundance of fisheries species. In a changing world where many people depend on oceans for food and livelihood, predicting the future distribution of fisheries species is a challenge. Native invasions and ocean warming are stressing inshore fisheries species, but rigorous empirical data and models that can reliably forecast these effects are lacking. This project intends to reveal the drivers of successful native invasions, evaluate their effect on fish diversity and productivity, and develop holistic models that forecast their effects on inshore fisheries species’ near-future distribution and stocks.Read moreRead less
The Southern Ocean's response to abrupt climate change. This project aims to determine how the Southern Ocean responds to abrupt climate change, through geochemical analysis of marine sediment cores. Rapid warming events of the last ice age provide an analogue to human-caused warming. Experiments using ocean climate models will evaluate the drivers and consequences of the biogeochemical response of different sectors and zones of the Southern Ocean. The intended outcome is a better understanding ....The Southern Ocean's response to abrupt climate change. This project aims to determine how the Southern Ocean responds to abrupt climate change, through geochemical analysis of marine sediment cores. Rapid warming events of the last ice age provide an analogue to human-caused warming. Experiments using ocean climate models will evaluate the drivers and consequences of the biogeochemical response of different sectors and zones of the Southern Ocean. The intended outcome is a better understanding of how and why climate change impacts ocean productivity in the ecologically significant Southern Ocean. This will lead to better representations of carbon feedbacks in climate models and more robust projections of future climate change.Read moreRead less