New methods for small group analysis from sample surveys. National and state averages of statistics on issues such as unemployment, salinity, drought impact, and health often hide large differences between population sub-groups and between small areas. This local variation needs to be understood so that effective policies can be developed and carried out efficiently and their impact monitored. This project will provide, for the first time, robust and efficient methods for providing information o ....New methods for small group analysis from sample surveys. National and state averages of statistics on issues such as unemployment, salinity, drought impact, and health often hide large differences between population sub-groups and between small areas. This local variation needs to be understood so that effective policies can be developed and carried out efficiently and their impact monitored. This project will provide, for the first time, robust and efficient methods for providing information on these variations using data from large-scale national and state surveys. This will lead to significant improvements in the data available for small population groups and small areas, allowing better targeting of policies aimed at addressing local differences.Read moreRead less
Handling Missing Data in Complex Household Surveys. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has an extensive program of household surveys that is a key source of information on the social and economic conditions of the population. They provide statistics and data on a large range of social and economic topics, such as health, education, the labour force, income and expenditure. Analysis of household survey data by a variety of organisations underpins policy development and evaluation and the e ....Handling Missing Data in Complex Household Surveys. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has an extensive program of household surveys that is a key source of information on the social and economic conditions of the population. They provide statistics and data on a large range of social and economic topics, such as health, education, the labour force, income and expenditure. Analysis of household survey data by a variety of organisations underpins policy development and evaluation and the expenditure of billions of dollars. This project will substantially improve the cost-efficiency and reliability of Australian household survey data, by creating new approaches for handling missing data that deal with the realities of typical household surveys.Read moreRead less
Investment Approaches and Applications in Financial Markets: Evolutionary Kernel Based Subset Time-Series Using Semi-Parametric Approaches. The project will develop new investment assessments based on subset time-series modeling. Innovative evolutionary kernel smoothing algorithms using semi-parametric approaches will be introduced. The project will make three important applications of this modeling in financial markets: a) benchmarking and evaluation of inflation-indexed bonds; b) evaluation of ....Investment Approaches and Applications in Financial Markets: Evolutionary Kernel Based Subset Time-Series Using Semi-Parametric Approaches. The project will develop new investment assessments based on subset time-series modeling. Innovative evolutionary kernel smoothing algorithms using semi-parametric approaches will be introduced. The project will make three important applications of this modeling in financial markets: a) benchmarking and evaluation of inflation-indexed bonds; b) evaluation of the performance of global diversified investment funds; and c) prediction to provide early warning of the emergence of destabilising deflation or inflation. These three applications will lead to improved risk management practices and investment performance. Recursive algorithms will provide new statistical methods to study investment asset price movements and market volatility.
Read moreRead less
Investment approaches and opportunities in renewable energy and financial resource markets, using semi-parametric approaches to evolutionary subset time-series lattice-ladder modelling. The project findings will help Australian exporters and importers understand and manage energy and resource price risks more effectively. The investment community will benefit through selecting optimal asset allocations and enhancing value to investors. It will also benefit many other agencies, particularly in th ....Investment approaches and opportunities in renewable energy and financial resource markets, using semi-parametric approaches to evolutionary subset time-series lattice-ladder modelling. The project findings will help Australian exporters and importers understand and manage energy and resource price risks more effectively. The investment community will benefit through selecting optimal asset allocations and enhancing value to investors. It will also benefit many other agencies, particularly in the service industries. It is not well recognised that in developed countries, including Australia, the financial service and related sectors account for more than 60 percent of economic activity and employment, so it is critical that more sophisticated statistical methods be established, and practical applications conducted, in order to advance the understanding of complexity management in the financial service and related sectors.Read moreRead less
Bayesian methodology for analysis of genome data with focus on the livestock industry. The aim is to develop statistical methods for the design and analysis of genome data with focus on the special needs of the livestock industry. This will significantly contribute to profitability, quality, genetic improvement and genetic knowledge in a key national industry, improve Australia's international and national profile in the key research area of bioinformatics, and encourage optimisation of current ....Bayesian methodology for analysis of genome data with focus on the livestock industry. The aim is to develop statistical methods for the design and analysis of genome data with focus on the special needs of the livestock industry. This will significantly contribute to profitability, quality, genetic improvement and genetic knowledge in a key national industry, improve Australia's international and national profile in the key research area of bioinformatics, and encourage optimisation of current information. Outcomes include a toolkit of applicable statistical methods, statistically valid algorithms, marketable methods for gene discovery, technology transfer, training and publications.Read moreRead less
Exploring Behavioural Responses of Motorists to Exposure-Based Charging Mechanisms. Our continued reliance on cars is estimated to cost the Australian economy around $50 billion per year in accidents, congestion and air pollution. This project delivers a new approach to reduce these externalities, in which charges are levied on drivers based on their accident history, the kilometres driven and the circumstances under which these kilometres are driven. In addition to the safety and congestion ben ....Exploring Behavioural Responses of Motorists to Exposure-Based Charging Mechanisms. Our continued reliance on cars is estimated to cost the Australian economy around $50 billion per year in accidents, congestion and air pollution. This project delivers a new approach to reduce these externalities, in which charges are levied on drivers based on their accident history, the kilometres driven and the circumstances under which these kilometres are driven. In addition to the safety and congestion benefits, the outcomes of the project will be of importance to those charged with raising revenue to support infrastructure maintenance and development, and the insurance industry as a basis for reducing risks in driving and making premiums more equitable.Read moreRead less
Helping Central Banks Measure Unobserved Variables Using Real-time Forecasts. The project addresses structural measurement problems confronted routinely by central bankers. The techniques developed, and the estimates provided, will aid directly the Partner Organisations (the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank) and other central banks in formulating monetary policy. The analysis will allow interest rates in Australia and elsewhere to be set with greater pre ....Helping Central Banks Measure Unobserved Variables Using Real-time Forecasts. The project addresses structural measurement problems confronted routinely by central bankers. The techniques developed, and the estimates provided, will aid directly the Partner Organisations (the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank) and other central banks in formulating monetary policy. The analysis will allow interest rates in Australia and elsewhere to be set with greater precision. The techniques developed in this project will facilitate the understanding and communication of monetary policy within the central banks concerned, and enhance communication of monetary policy strategy to the public.Read moreRead less
Seasonal adjustment using disaggregated short time span data. Seasonally adjusted economic and social times series are vital information used by governments and businesses in decision making. This project will develop statistical methods to estimate and remove seasonal factors from economic and social time series using finely disaggregated data for a relatively small number of time periods. This will enable better and quicker estimation of seasonal factors when new series are introduced or there ....Seasonal adjustment using disaggregated short time span data. Seasonally adjusted economic and social times series are vital information used by governments and businesses in decision making. This project will develop statistical methods to estimate and remove seasonal factors from economic and social time series using finely disaggregated data for a relatively small number of time periods. This will enable better and quicker estimation of seasonal factors when new series are introduced or there a major changes to existing series, improving the analysis of such series and the decisions based on them.Read moreRead less
The long term causal effects of Vietnam War era conscription on economic and social outcomes for Australian conscripts. The project will inform veterans' compensation, military and retirement income policies. A perennial policy issue is how best to re-integrate veterans into society. Our preliminary analysis suggests very different effects of conscription in Australia to the USA, particularly on employment. This may reflect different systems of benefits, which we will investigate. A greater unde ....The long term causal effects of Vietnam War era conscription on economic and social outcomes for Australian conscripts. The project will inform veterans' compensation, military and retirement income policies. A perennial policy issue is how best to re-integrate veterans into society. Our preliminary analysis suggests very different effects of conscription in Australia to the USA, particularly on employment. This may reflect different systems of benefits, which we will investigate. A greater understanding of the effects of conscription will also inform policy makers of the full cost to society of military service and participation in conflict. Since veterans are entitled to retirement pensions earlier than non-veterans, we also investigate the effects of benefit eligibility on employment outcomes amongst older men.Read moreRead less
The importance of price and perceived quality to the demand for fresh fruits and vegetables. It is estimated that the direct and indirect cost of diet-related diseases to Australia is between $2-3 billion per annum. One of the most important things that can be done to prevent diet-related disease is to encourage the population to eat more fruits and vegetables. The aim of this project is to examine the effect of price and perceived quality on the type and quantity of fruits and vegetables cons ....The importance of price and perceived quality to the demand for fresh fruits and vegetables. It is estimated that the direct and indirect cost of diet-related diseases to Australia is between $2-3 billion per annum. One of the most important things that can be done to prevent diet-related disease is to encourage the population to eat more fruits and vegetables. The aim of this project is to examine the effect of price and perceived quality on the type and quantity of fruits and vegetables consumed, especially among low-income households. The project will employ modelling techniques that are novel to this product group and that will provide valuable insights to the constraints and opportunities for increasing fruits and vegetables intake, as well as benchmarks for future research.Read moreRead less