Predictability of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. This project aims to improve understanding of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the world’s largest source of climate variability. ENSO’s effects are so large that knowledge of its current phase and forecasts of its future phase underpin seasonal rainfall, temperature and tropical cyclone forecasts worldwide. In Australia, ENSO cycles cause drought and floods. Using a suite of empirical observations and numerical models to analyse ENSO e ....Predictability of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. This project aims to improve understanding of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the world’s largest source of climate variability. ENSO’s effects are so large that knowledge of its current phase and forecasts of its future phase underpin seasonal rainfall, temperature and tropical cyclone forecasts worldwide. In Australia, ENSO cycles cause drought and floods. Using a suite of empirical observations and numerical models to analyse ENSO event precursors, initiation and predictability, this project intends to enhance skill in inter-seasonal climate forecasting and help those sectors reliant on accurate prediction.Read moreRead less
Ocean heat content change and its impact on sea level. This project aims to improve projections of possible sea level changes. Sea level rise is among the most significant potential impacts of transient climate change around the world. Poor understanding of the way in which heat is absorbed at the sea surface and distributed by ocean circulation is a leading source of uncertainty in projections of global surface temperature and regional sea level rise by the end of this century. This project aim ....Ocean heat content change and its impact on sea level. This project aims to improve projections of possible sea level changes. Sea level rise is among the most significant potential impacts of transient climate change around the world. Poor understanding of the way in which heat is absorbed at the sea surface and distributed by ocean circulation is a leading source of uncertainty in projections of global surface temperature and regional sea level rise by the end of this century. This project aims to apply novel observational methods, complimented by numerical modelling, to quantify the drivers of recent change. This project expects to transform our ability to predict how ocean temperature and sea level will change in the future.Read moreRead less
Unraveling ocean mixing and air-sea forcing along the Indo-Pacific exchange. This project aims to collect unprecedented observations and develop high resolution model simulations to examine changes in the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) north of Australia. This project expects to develop new knowledge of ocean-atmosphere interactions along the path of the ITF from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean, which are the powerhouse that drives changes in winds and rainfall around Australia and the entire Indo ....Unraveling ocean mixing and air-sea forcing along the Indo-Pacific exchange. This project aims to collect unprecedented observations and develop high resolution model simulations to examine changes in the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) north of Australia. This project expects to develop new knowledge of ocean-atmosphere interactions along the path of the ITF from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean, which are the powerhouse that drives changes in winds and rainfall around Australia and the entire Indo-Pacific region. Expected outcomes include a 1000-fold increase in the observations of mixing in the Indonesian seas and new understanding of the ocean-atmosphere processes that control water property change along the ITF. This should lead to strong improvement in the skill of climate forecast models in the Australian region.Read moreRead less
Australian Laureate Fellowships - Grant ID: FL150100090
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$2,770,434.00
Summary
Ocean mixing processes and innovation in oceanographic models. Ocean mixing processes and innovation in oceanographic models: This fellowship project aims to develop new oceanographic tools and thermodynamic variables to support a new generation of accurate ocean models more suitable for the prediction of changes in a warming world. The ocean’s role in the climate system is predominantly to store and to transport heat and carbon dioxide, and the ocean’s ability to do this is sensitive to the str ....Ocean mixing processes and innovation in oceanographic models. Ocean mixing processes and innovation in oceanographic models: This fellowship project aims to develop new oceanographic tools and thermodynamic variables to support a new generation of accurate ocean models more suitable for the prediction of changes in a warming world. The ocean’s role in the climate system is predominantly to store and to transport heat and carbon dioxide, and the ocean’s ability to do this is sensitive to the strength of mixing processes, which are quite uncertain. This project hopes to distinguish the vital role of vertical mixing from that of horizontal mixing by (i) developing algorithms to construct neutral density surfaces in climate models, (ii) formulating new inverse techniques to deduce the amount of vertical mixing in various ocean regions, and (iii) incorporating new approaches to ocean mixing processes and thermodynamics into ocean models.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE200100414
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$415,266.00
Summary
Ocean mixing under Antarctic sea ice: a missing climate link. The 2016 sudden decline of Antarctic sea ice after decades of growth took the research community by surprise. Leveraging international collaborations, this interdisciplinary project aims to solve the puzzle of Antarctic sea ice, by assessing the ocean's role using key observations collected with state-of-the-art technology. Expected outcomes include a better understanding of why Antarctic sea ice is changing, impacts on sea ice ecosys ....Ocean mixing under Antarctic sea ice: a missing climate link. The 2016 sudden decline of Antarctic sea ice after decades of growth took the research community by surprise. Leveraging international collaborations, this interdisciplinary project aims to solve the puzzle of Antarctic sea ice, by assessing the ocean's role using key observations collected with state-of-the-art technology. Expected outcomes include a better understanding of why Antarctic sea ice is changing, impacts on sea ice ecosystems, and improved predictions of future changes. This project addresses knowledge gaps identified by the global climate community. It will strategically position Australia with new expertise and essential context to understand changing dynamics in a region that regulates global weather and climate.Read moreRead less
Risks of rapid ocean warming at the Antarctic continental margin. This project aims to comprehensively understand the interconnected processes by which oceanic heat is circulated towards Antarctica. The risk of rapid ocean warming at the Antarctic margin is profound, with change already detected via deep ocean warming, land-ice melt, and ice shelf collapse. Yet this region remains poorly understood, with only limited observations due to both a harsh environment and a lack of standard data stream ....Risks of rapid ocean warming at the Antarctic continental margin. This project aims to comprehensively understand the interconnected processes by which oceanic heat is circulated towards Antarctica. The risk of rapid ocean warming at the Antarctic margin is profound, with change already detected via deep ocean warming, land-ice melt, and ice shelf collapse. Yet this region remains poorly understood, with only limited observations due to both a harsh environment and a lack of standard data streams. This project will use high-resolution global and regional ocean/sea-ice models to examine mechanisms for rapid warming of Antarctic continental shelf waters via both large-scale drivers and fine-scale processes, including mesoscale eddies, tide-topography interactions, and bottom boundary flows. This work will better constrain future rates of ice melt around Antarctica by providing vital knowledge of the ocean processes, dynamics, and feedbacks relating to warm water intrusion onto the Antarctic continental shelf.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE210100749
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$434,030.00
Summary
Machine learning of subgrid ocean physics for global ocean models. Climate projections require simulations with ocean-climate models for hundreds of years. Computational resources limit the resolution of our models for such long runs, meaning that some key physical processes remain unresolved and must be parameterised. This project uses machine learning to find new parameterisations for unresolved ocean processes. These new parameterisations will be implemented into computationally cheaper coars ....Machine learning of subgrid ocean physics for global ocean models. Climate projections require simulations with ocean-climate models for hundreds of years. Computational resources limit the resolution of our models for such long runs, meaning that some key physical processes remain unresolved and must be parameterised. This project uses machine learning to find new parameterisations for unresolved ocean processes. These new parameterisations will be implemented into computationally cheaper coarse-resolution ocean models, thereby enhancing these models' representation of the ocean circulation. This project expects to reveal the dynamics of unresolved processes, to improve the accuracy of climate projections and to provide a proof-of-concept for how machine learning can be used in ocean and climate science.Read moreRead less
Spanning ten billion scales from millimetre turbulence to global circulation. This project aims to explain the role of convection in the ocean. Convection is a key climate process yet it remains one of the most poorly understood mechanisms in the ocean and is crudely represented in climate models, leading to uncertainties in predictions of heat transport, climate change, polar ice loss and sea level rise. Using a unique turbulence-resolving approach and high-performance computing, the project wi ....Spanning ten billion scales from millimetre turbulence to global circulation. This project aims to explain the role of convection in the ocean. Convection is a key climate process yet it remains one of the most poorly understood mechanisms in the ocean and is crudely represented in climate models, leading to uncertainties in predictions of heat transport, climate change, polar ice loss and sea level rise. Using a unique turbulence-resolving approach and high-performance computing, the project will determine both the global role of buoyancy-driven convection in the broad ocean circulation and the local turbulence controls on melting rates of Antarctic ice-shelves. This will contribute to the formulation of better climate models and keep Australia at the forefront of oceanography and environmental fluid dynamics.Read moreRead less
The Antarctic Slope Current in a warming climate. Melting Antarctic ice sheets are responsible for 28% of global sea level rise in recent decades, and can contribute more than 1 metre of sea level rise by year 2100, and a staggering 15 metres by 2500. Increased glacial melt rates are best understood by studying changes in the circulation of water around the Antarctic coastline. The combination of physical processes that must be resolved in this region places a high demand on ocean observations a ....The Antarctic Slope Current in a warming climate. Melting Antarctic ice sheets are responsible for 28% of global sea level rise in recent decades, and can contribute more than 1 metre of sea level rise by year 2100, and a staggering 15 metres by 2500. Increased glacial melt rates are best understood by studying changes in the circulation of water around the Antarctic coastline. The combination of physical processes that must be resolved in this region places a high demand on ocean observations and modelling systems. This project uses a series of high-resolution ocean and ice experiments, cross-validated with observations, to provide a deeper understanding of how waters at the Antarctic margin respond to both anthropogenic and natural climate forcing.Read moreRead less
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes. This Centre aims to transform understanding of past and present climate extremes and revolutionise Australia’s capability to predict them into the future. Climate extremes cost Australia up to $4 billion a year and will intensify over coming decades. This Centre’s blue-sky research will discover processes that explain the behaviour of present and future climate extremes. It will use its researchers, data, modelling, collaboration, graduate programme ....ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes. This Centre aims to transform understanding of past and present climate extremes and revolutionise Australia’s capability to predict them into the future. Climate extremes cost Australia up to $4 billion a year and will intensify over coming decades. This Centre’s blue-sky research will discover processes that explain the behaviour of present and future climate extremes. It will use its researchers, data, modelling, collaboration, graduate programme and early career researcher mentoring to transform Australia’s capacity to predict climate extremes. This research is expected to make Australia more resilient to climate extremes and minimise risks from climate extremes to the Australian environment, society and economy.Read moreRead less