Ocean heat content change and its impact on sea level. This project aims to improve projections of possible sea level changes. Sea level rise is among the most significant potential impacts of transient climate change around the world. Poor understanding of the way in which heat is absorbed at the sea surface and distributed by ocean circulation is a leading source of uncertainty in projections of global surface temperature and regional sea level rise by the end of this century. This project aim ....Ocean heat content change and its impact on sea level. This project aims to improve projections of possible sea level changes. Sea level rise is among the most significant potential impacts of transient climate change around the world. Poor understanding of the way in which heat is absorbed at the sea surface and distributed by ocean circulation is a leading source of uncertainty in projections of global surface temperature and regional sea level rise by the end of this century. This project aims to apply novel observational methods, complimented by numerical modelling, to quantify the drivers of recent change. This project expects to transform our ability to predict how ocean temperature and sea level will change in the future.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE200100086
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$357,203.00
Summary
Will an improved land surface model enhance seasonal prediction of drought? This project aims to increase the predictability of seasonal droughts that cause major socio-economic losses in rural Australia. The capacity to predict drought, and in particular its impacts on the land, is currently limited by the low skill of forecast models. Using novel observations, the project expects to quantify the vulnerability of Australian agricultural lands to seasonal droughts. The new knowledge will then be ....Will an improved land surface model enhance seasonal prediction of drought? This project aims to increase the predictability of seasonal droughts that cause major socio-economic losses in rural Australia. The capacity to predict drought, and in particular its impacts on the land, is currently limited by the low skill of forecast models. Using novel observations, the project expects to quantify the vulnerability of Australian agricultural lands to seasonal droughts. The new knowledge will then be used to modify land processes in the Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal prediction system to better reflect Australian conditions. This project is expected to improve forecasts of high impact droughts, crucial to mitigate socio-economic risks, and should benefit decision-making in agriculture and other industries.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE140100952
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$394,299.00
Summary
A comprehensive understanding of Australian heat waves: past, present and future. The frequency and duration of Australian heat waves is increasing. Existing theories include natural and human influences, however the relative roles of specific heat wave drivers are undefined. Using an ensemble of contemporary climate models, this project will determine the individual and combined roles of anthropogenic activities, natural forcings and internal variability that shape heat wave manifestation. Usin ....A comprehensive understanding of Australian heat waves: past, present and future. The frequency and duration of Australian heat waves is increasing. Existing theories include natural and human influences, however the relative roles of specific heat wave drivers are undefined. Using an ensemble of contemporary climate models, this project will determine the individual and combined roles of anthropogenic activities, natural forcings and internal variability that shape heat wave manifestation. Using the ability of models to simulate the appropriate mechanistic connections, plausible future projections of heat waves will be ascertained. This will be the first comprehensive analysis of changes in heat waves, providing essential resources for the adaptation, mitigation and preparedness towards future events.Read moreRead less
ARC Centres of Excellence for Climate System Science. Our capacity to assess the threat of climate change is undermined by an unacceptable level of uncertainty in the understanding and modelling of regional climates. The Centre will undertake world-class research targeting identified weaknesses in the physical, chemical and biological components of the climate system. We will engage and nurture graduate students and postdoctoral follows through a program of graduate training and mentoring to per ....ARC Centres of Excellence for Climate System Science. Our capacity to assess the threat of climate change is undermined by an unacceptable level of uncertainty in the understanding and modelling of regional climates. The Centre will undertake world-class research targeting identified weaknesses in the physical, chemical and biological components of the climate system. We will engage and nurture graduate students and postdoctoral follows through a program of graduate training and mentoring to permanently transform our understanding of climate systems science particularly for the Australian region. The key outcome will be a dramatic enhancement in national capacity to understand and project the scale of future regional climate change.Read moreRead less
The changing relationship between the South Asian and Australian Monsoon in a warming world. The success or failure of the Australian and South Asian Monsoons can mean the difference between prosperity and severe hardship in the affected regions. This project will help to understand the causes of the monsoon variability, both natural and human-induced, and what the future might have in store.
How do humans affect the nature and impacts of Australian heatwaves? This project aims to provide more accurate information on the human signal behind heatwaves and their impacts, by deriving a comprehensive approach of the detection and attribution of climate extremes. The project expects to generate robust estimates of the human signal behind high-impact events, and an innovative, versatile methodology that can be applied to any extreme event and its impacts. With the specific application to A ....How do humans affect the nature and impacts of Australian heatwaves? This project aims to provide more accurate information on the human signal behind heatwaves and their impacts, by deriving a comprehensive approach of the detection and attribution of climate extremes. The project expects to generate robust estimates of the human signal behind high-impact events, and an innovative, versatile methodology that can be applied to any extreme event and its impacts. With the specific application to Australian heatwave impacts on human health, key knowledge should support more targeted and accurate mitigation policies, minimising the strain on resources when future heatwaves occur. This should help in safeguarding future generations from deadly impacts of heatwaves.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE160100092
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$389,742.00
Summary
What is extreme? Advancing insights into Australia’s variable rainfall. This project aims to address fundamental questions about the causes of Australia’s rainfall variability, providing crucial information about how changing climates affect the water cycle. Bringing together earth system data from ground-based and satellite observations, palaeoclimate reconstructions and climate model simulations, it plans to analyse the processes that cause change in Australia’s rainfall. The project aims to i ....What is extreme? Advancing insights into Australia’s variable rainfall. This project aims to address fundamental questions about the causes of Australia’s rainfall variability, providing crucial information about how changing climates affect the water cycle. Bringing together earth system data from ground-based and satellite observations, palaeoclimate reconstructions and climate model simulations, it plans to analyse the processes that cause change in Australia’s rainfall. The project aims to integrate these datasets using the novel analysis of water isotopes, an important diagnostic of the water cycle. This approach is expected to help evaluate how Australia’s rainfall responds to natural and anthropogenic drivers and identify the processes behind recently observed rainfall extremes.Read moreRead less
Tropical ocean interactions and implications for regional climate. This project aims to understand the complex interactions across the world’s tropical oceans and their associated climate effects. The El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO), manifesting in the Pacific Ocean, influences precipitation and temperature worldwide. Changes in the tropical Atlantic or Indian Oceans affect ENSO, generating instabilities and irregularities in the response. Understanding the interactions across the tropical ....Tropical ocean interactions and implications for regional climate. This project aims to understand the complex interactions across the world’s tropical oceans and their associated climate effects. The El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO), manifesting in the Pacific Ocean, influences precipitation and temperature worldwide. Changes in the tropical Atlantic or Indian Oceans affect ENSO, generating instabilities and irregularities in the response. Understanding the interactions across the tropical Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans can provide critical information for ENSO prognosis, thus improving long-term forecasting. Accurate seasonal and annual climate forecasting is crucial for managing Australia’s water resources, and minimising the socio-economic effects of prolonged droughts and severe wet periods.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE150100456
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$367,536.00
Summary
How far in advance can we predict extreme temperature and rainfall events? The occurrence of extreme temperature and precipitation events undergoes substantial seasonal to decadal variability, but little is known about their predictability. This project aims to examine variability and predictability of these climatic extremes and associated mechanisms. It will be the first to systematically investigate sources of predictability by incorporating the most comprehensive novel databases of both mult ....How far in advance can we predict extreme temperature and rainfall events? The occurrence of extreme temperature and precipitation events undergoes substantial seasonal to decadal variability, but little is known about their predictability. This project aims to examine variability and predictability of these climatic extremes and associated mechanisms. It will be the first to systematically investigate sources of predictability by incorporating the most comprehensive novel databases of both multi-model decadal climate simulations and observed climate extremes. This study is significant as it will lead to a vastly improved understanding of variability and predictability of climate extremes. This will enable improved climate predictions on seasonal to decadal timescales and ultimately improve longer-term projections.Read moreRead less
Has rainfall become more variable or extreme? The trends and variability of global daily rainfall are uncertain. By tackling data shortcomings and the scaling issues that exist between observations and models, this project aims to produce the first well-constrained long-term assessment of the variability and trends in daily rainfall over land. Using extreme value analysis on the resulting data would allow the exploration of the sensitivity of rainfall extremes to grid resolution, interpolation m ....Has rainfall become more variable or extreme? The trends and variability of global daily rainfall are uncertain. By tackling data shortcomings and the scaling issues that exist between observations and models, this project aims to produce the first well-constrained long-term assessment of the variability and trends in daily rainfall over land. Using extreme value analysis on the resulting data would allow the exploration of the sensitivity of rainfall extremes to grid resolution, interpolation method and order of operation on an unprecedented grand scale. Ultimately, this means that improved return period estimates could be calculated for the types of events that could lead to flooding. Understanding how, where and why it rains is vital for enabling sound decisions to be made by our planners and policy-makers.Read moreRead less