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A Stochastic Downscaling Framework for Catchment Scale Climate Change Impact Assessment. We propose a framework for climate change impact assessment at the catchment scale, that can both assess the change in catchment yield, as well as refine management policies to mitigate likely impacts. A key aim is to represent the full uncertainty in the simulated streamflow, thus enabling a risk-based comparison of current policies with those for climate change conditions. Given the importance of this rese ....A Stochastic Downscaling Framework for Catchment Scale Climate Change Impact Assessment. We propose a framework for climate change impact assessment at the catchment scale, that can both assess the change in catchment yield, as well as refine management policies to mitigate likely impacts. A key aim is to represent the full uncertainty in the simulated streamflow, thus enabling a risk-based comparison of current policies with those for climate change conditions. Given the importance of this research to the availability of water under a climate change scenario, this proposal has been listed under the ARC's Research Priority 1: 'An Environmentally Sustainable Australia', with the specific priority goals being 'Water - A Critical Resource', and 'Responding to climate change and variability'.Read moreRead less
Derivation of long-term hydroclimatic sequences for water resources engineering, management and planning. This project aims to develop in-situ reconstructions of flood and drought occurrence in the Sydney Warragamba catchment. The unique approach will utilise two complementary methods to provide robust insights into historic variability at the location of interest. The derived sequences will be used to augment the instrumental record, the sole basis for current drought risk assessment. A key out ....Derivation of long-term hydroclimatic sequences for water resources engineering, management and planning. This project aims to develop in-situ reconstructions of flood and drought occurrence in the Sydney Warragamba catchment. The unique approach will utilise two complementary methods to provide robust insights into historic variability at the location of interest. The derived sequences will be used to augment the instrumental record, the sole basis for current drought risk assessment. A key outcome will be an accurate appreciation of long-term drought occurrence. This will also provide a stronger basis for utilising climate information in guiding day-to-day reservoir and water supply management. The proxy histories are of key importance in estimating future flood and drought risk assessments for water resources management and planning.Read moreRead less
Active-passive microwave soil moisture remote sensing: Towards sustainable land and water management from space. Soil moisture is a highly critical resource for the Australian agricultural economy which is stressed by climate change. Daily monitoring of paddock scale soil moisture from space represents a powerful tool to inform land management, allowing accurate crop yield and pasture growth predictions. At the continental scale, soil moisture information will result in better weather, climate a ....Active-passive microwave soil moisture remote sensing: Towards sustainable land and water management from space. Soil moisture is a highly critical resource for the Australian agricultural economy which is stressed by climate change. Daily monitoring of paddock scale soil moisture from space represents a powerful tool to inform land management, allowing accurate crop yield and pasture growth predictions. At the continental scale, soil moisture information will result in better weather, climate and extreme flood prediction skill and the ability to assess the effects of future climate change on Australia. It is therefore imperative that active-passive soil moisture retrieval algorithms be developed specifically for the Australian environment in order to take full advantage of the SMAP remote sensing mission when it is launched in 2012.Read moreRead less
High resolution mapping of surface and root zone soil moisture. Knowledge of the spatial and temporal variation of surface and root zone soil moisture content at high spatial resolution is critical to achieving more efficient water utilisation practices in agriculture. Australia's main river basins are under mounting pressure to satisfy a wide range of competing economic, social and environmental needs for water, particularly in terms of environmental flows and efficient irrigation. A better u ....High resolution mapping of surface and root zone soil moisture. Knowledge of the spatial and temporal variation of surface and root zone soil moisture content at high spatial resolution is critical to achieving more efficient water utilisation practices in agriculture. Australia's main river basins are under mounting pressure to satisfy a wide range of competing economic, social and environmental needs for water, particularly in terms of environmental flows and efficient irrigation. A better understanding of the soil moisture distribution at sub-farm scales will allow farmers to better utilise both the moisture in their soil and their limited allocation for irrigation. This will help alleviate soil moisture related problems in some of the nation's key catchments, such as the Murray Darling Basin.Read moreRead less
A Generalized Flood Frequency Framework for Prediction of the Effects of Multi-Scale Hydroclimatic Variability. The proposed project aims to investigate the effects of natural, multi-scale variability in climatic inputs, especially precipitation inputs -- intra-annual (seasonal), inter-annual and inter-decadal -- on the estimation of frequency of flooding. It will investigate the propagation of these natural variabilities through the catchment system, through simple models that can enable the e ....A Generalized Flood Frequency Framework for Prediction of the Effects of Multi-Scale Hydroclimatic Variability. The proposed project aims to investigate the effects of natural, multi-scale variability in climatic inputs, especially precipitation inputs -- intra-annual (seasonal), inter-annual and inter-decadal -- on the estimation of frequency of flooding. It will investigate the propagation of these natural variabilities through the catchment system, through simple models that can enable the estimation of probability distributions of soil moisture, runoff generation and flood peaks, and elucidate the underlying process controls. In this way, it will help develop a new framework for the incorporation of these multi-scale variabilities in flood estimation practice in Australia.Read moreRead less
Impact of land use on cloud formation. Large scale land clearing has the potential to significantly modify regional climates yet current climate models do not incorporate an adequate representation of the land surface. Within Western Australia the rabbit fence provides a unique environment in which the interaction between the land surface and the atmosphere can be studied without other competing influences. A combination of satellite, aircraft and ground based observations will be used to relate ....Impact of land use on cloud formation. Large scale land clearing has the potential to significantly modify regional climates yet current climate models do not incorporate an adequate representation of the land surface. Within Western Australia the rabbit fence provides a unique environment in which the interaction between the land surface and the atmosphere can be studied without other competing influences. A combination of satellite, aircraft and ground based observations will be used to relate cloud formation to land characteristics and provide a clearer insight into the climatic impact of human-induced land surface changes.Read moreRead less
Palaeoclimatic and environmental significance of major Late Quaternary drainage contributions and disruptions in the Lake Eyre basin. This study will advance our knowledge of the most remarkable floods ever known to have occurred in Australia. They were associated with a vast aquatic ecosystem in what today is the barren northern end of the Flinders Ranges, a region of desert dunes and salt lakes. Remarkably, such wet conditions appear to have coincided with episodes of megafaunal extinction and ....Palaeoclimatic and environmental significance of major Late Quaternary drainage contributions and disruptions in the Lake Eyre basin. This study will advance our knowledge of the most remarkable floods ever known to have occurred in Australia. They were associated with a vast aquatic ecosystem in what today is the barren northern end of the Flinders Ranges, a region of desert dunes and salt lakes. Remarkably, such wet conditions appear to have coincided with episodes of megafaunal extinction and with the human occupation of Australia. The results will provide valuable information with which to better understand the the main global drivers of episodes of profound wetness and dryness in Australian climate. Read moreRead less
How green were our deserts? Evidence for Late Quaternary climate change and the source of water in the Lake Eyre basin. This project addresses the National Research Priority of Environmentally Sustainable Australia by examining evidence for what has controlled climate change and variable runoff in the vast Lake Eyre basin. It will provide evidence for why Australia, presently the world's driest inhabited continent, has as recently as medieval times supported large lakes holding many cubic kilome ....How green were our deserts? Evidence for Late Quaternary climate change and the source of water in the Lake Eyre basin. This project addresses the National Research Priority of Environmentally Sustainable Australia by examining evidence for what has controlled climate change and variable runoff in the vast Lake Eyre basin. It will provide evidence for why Australia, presently the world's driest inhabited continent, has as recently as medieval times supported large lakes holding many cubic kilometres of fresh water adjacent to the now-barren Flinders Ranges. It will show if this water had a tropical or temperate source, fundamental information for understanding Australia's past climate, and allow predictions of future climate to be based on firm evidence.Read moreRead less
Using Advances in Bayesian Statistics to Estimate Australian Rainfall Variations in a Climate Change World. Modelling changes to rainfall patterns answers many important questions about changes in Australia's climate. This is essential to protecting our biodiversity and ensuring Australia's environmental sustainability. The project will address such issues as the extent to which the entire distribution of daily rainfall has changed over time, which areas of Australia have been most affected by t ....Using Advances in Bayesian Statistics to Estimate Australian Rainfall Variations in a Climate Change World. Modelling changes to rainfall patterns answers many important questions about changes in Australia's climate. This is essential to protecting our biodiversity and ensuring Australia's environmental sustainability. The project will address such issues as the extent to which the entire distribution of daily rainfall has changed over time, which areas of Australia have been most affected by this change and to what extent are these changes related to global climate indices. The latest advances in Bayesian statistics will be used to introduce flexibility and complexity into the model.Read moreRead less
Adaptation of Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) to Climate Change, Changing Transport Patterns and Urban Form. This research will (a) provide guidance on future adaptations of stormwater quality infrastructure, (b) provide better scientific understanding of pollutant movements in urban systems and (c) provide methodology to 'future proof' infrastructure design against the pressures of climate change and urban population growth. Project outputs will (a) enable water-sensitive urban designs to b ....Adaptation of Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) to Climate Change, Changing Transport Patterns and Urban Form. This research will (a) provide guidance on future adaptations of stormwater quality infrastructure, (b) provide better scientific understanding of pollutant movements in urban systems and (c) provide methodology to 'future proof' infrastructure design against the pressures of climate change and urban population growth. Project outputs will (a) enable water-sensitive urban designs to be applied reliably and (b) minimise the cost of re-building assets before the end of their design life due to climate change. The ultimate benefit is the reduction in water pollution from roadways leading to improved human and ecosystem well-being of urban communities.Read moreRead less