Representing low-frequency variability in hydro-climatic simulations for water resources planning and management in a changing climate. Simulating local hydro-climatology under likely climate change allows risk assessment of existing and future water infrastructure, along with the planning protocols needed to adapt to the changes ahead. This study aims to develop the tools needed to simulate local hydro-climatology, providing a basis for securing water for the generations to come.
Australian Laureate Fellowships - Grant ID: FL120100050
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$3,079,069.00
Summary
Sea level change and climate sensitivity. This project will aim to improve understanding of climate and sea-level change on timescales relevant to longer-term planning, by characterising the relationship between past sea-level/ice-volume change and other key climate factors such as temperature and greenhouse gases, and by quantifying how rapidly sea level may adjust to climate change.
A Fourier approach to address low-frequency variability bias in hydrology. This project aims to develop a mathematical framework to better simulate the occurrence of sustained anomalies, such as droughts and long periods of flooding, into the future. These events increase water insecurity and result in loss of revenue, livelihoods and lives. Hydrological planning requires knowledge of how such sustained extremes will change in the future. Current alternatives for simulating such changes for futu ....A Fourier approach to address low-frequency variability bias in hydrology. This project aims to develop a mathematical framework to better simulate the occurrence of sustained anomalies, such as droughts and long periods of flooding, into the future. These events increase water insecurity and result in loss of revenue, livelihoods and lives. Hydrological planning requires knowledge of how such sustained extremes will change in the future. Current alternatives for simulating such changes for future climates are inadequate for catchment-scale planning to proceed. The project proposes a strategy for post-processing hydrological simulations of the future using an elegant frequency-domain approach. It expects to provide the tools needed to develop hydrologic infrastructure, such as water supply reservoirs, that secure our water resources for the generations to come.Read moreRead less
Understanding total long-term sea-level consequences. This project addresses the urgency in long-term infrastructure planning to understand the long-term "equilibrium" sea-level-change consequences from today’s exceptionally rapid climate change. Understanding this requires detailed sea-level reconstructions back to warm periods with similar CO2 levels to today (~3.5 million years ago), but these remain insufficiently defined. To advance, the project will deliver a next-generation, multi-million ....Understanding total long-term sea-level consequences. This project addresses the urgency in long-term infrastructure planning to understand the long-term "equilibrium" sea-level-change consequences from today’s exceptionally rapid climate change. Understanding this requires detailed sea-level reconstructions back to warm periods with similar CO2 levels to today (~3.5 million years ago), but these remain insufficiently defined. To advance, the project will deliver a next-generation, multi-million-year sea-level reconstruction that includes dynamically evolving (time-dependent) interactions between critical climate factors. This will then be applied with other palaeoclimate data to reconstruct equilibrium relationships between sea level, temperature, and CO2 at currently unattainable precision. Read moreRead less
Utilizing the geological record to constrain the response of marine ecosystems and global carbon cycling to warming and de-oxygenation. Earth history is punctuated by a huge variety of transitions and perturbations in climate, biogeochemical cycling, and ecosystems, some of which may hold direct future-relevant information. In the oceans, these are closely linked in a complex web of feedbacks, as well as to the oxygenation of the ocean and the ultimate geological fate of excessive carbon release ....Utilizing the geological record to constrain the response of marine ecosystems and global carbon cycling to warming and de-oxygenation. Earth history is punctuated by a huge variety of transitions and perturbations in climate, biogeochemical cycling, and ecosystems, some of which may hold direct future-relevant information. In the oceans, these are closely linked in a complex web of feedbacks, as well as to the oxygenation of the ocean and the ultimate geological fate of excessive carbon released into the atmosphere – burial of carbon in sediments. This project will develop a computer model representation of this coupled carbon-climate-life system and test this against the geological record, explore the causes and consequences of carbon release events and extinctions as well as how the ocean floor delivery and preservation of organic carbon responds.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE130100668
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$351,805.00
Summary
The further back we look, the further forward we can see: 1,000 years of past climate to help predict future climate change in Australia. Reconstructing 1,000 years of Australia's past climate will greatly extend our understanding of natural climate variability currently estimated from weather observations. For the first time, Australian climate variations over the last millennium will be used to assess the accuracy of climate model simulations for our region.
Quantitative reconstructions of Australian climates since the last Interglacial. A crucial test of the models used to project future climate is how well they reproduce past climates. The project will reconstruct Australian regional climates, from vegetation, fire and runoff records, and use these for climate-model evaluation - helping to provide a more solid basis for management of Australian resources in the future.
Past to future changes in ocean dynamics and biogeochemistry. This project aims to understand the impact of changes in ocean circulation on marine biogeochemistry, climate and ultimately the Antarctic ice-sheet by combining transient simulations of the last glacial cycle performed with an Earth system model incorporating the compilation of paleoproxy records. The oceanic circulation has varied over the last glacial cycle (~140,000 years) and is expected to change over the coming centuries due t ....Past to future changes in ocean dynamics and biogeochemistry. This project aims to understand the impact of changes in ocean circulation on marine biogeochemistry, climate and ultimately the Antarctic ice-sheet by combining transient simulations of the last glacial cycle performed with an Earth system model incorporating the compilation of paleoproxy records. The oceanic circulation has varied over the last glacial cycle (~140,000 years) and is expected to change over the coming centuries due to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide. The project will measure future changes in oceanic circulation on ocean acidification and oxygen content with a state-of-the-art high-resolution ocean carbon cycle model. This will lead to improved understanding of processes and feedbacks within the Earth system.Read moreRead less
Past climate and environmental impacts on Great Barrier Reef paleoecology. This project aims to investigate the interconnected processes that led to past reef growth and demise. The iconic Great Barrier Reef and reefs globally are under threat. Yet reefs appear to have undergone cycles of death and recovery, though the causes are poorly understood. This project will reconstruct past climate, rainfall, water quality, coral bleaching and reef ecology feedbacks across Great Barrier Reef death event ....Past climate and environmental impacts on Great Barrier Reef paleoecology. This project aims to investigate the interconnected processes that led to past reef growth and demise. The iconic Great Barrier Reef and reefs globally are under threat. Yet reefs appear to have undergone cycles of death and recovery, though the causes are poorly understood. This project will reconstruct past climate, rainfall, water quality, coral bleaching and reef ecology feedbacks across Great Barrier Reef death events to establish which environmental stressors and paleoclimate variations are most critical for reef health. The outcomes will better constrain long term coral reef dynamics and provide significant benefits to those who manage reefs globally, since the Great Barrier Reef covers the full range of reef environments.Read moreRead less
The evolution of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in southeast Australia. El Niño events starve southeast Australia of rainfall, resulting in droughts and wildfires. El Niño activity is projected to amplify as global temperatures rise, heralding a serious threat to Australia's water security and the incidence and magnitude of wildfires. The key to understanding the potential effects of future changes in El Niño activity lies in the past. El Niño activity has varied substantially over the last 12 ....The evolution of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in southeast Australia. El Niño events starve southeast Australia of rainfall, resulting in droughts and wildfires. El Niño activity is projected to amplify as global temperatures rise, heralding a serious threat to Australia's water security and the incidence and magnitude of wildfires. The key to understanding the potential effects of future changes in El Niño activity lies in the past. El Niño activity has varied substantially over the last 12,000 years. This project will reconstruct the response of southeast Australian climate, vegetation and fire activity to changes in El Niño activity over this period using lake sediments located in El Niño sensitive locations in Tasmania.Read moreRead less