Tipping points and early warning signals in complex ecosystems. This project aims to create a theory of early warning that uses spatial data available on system state, connectivity and environmental stress, and to create tools to infer the risk of ecosystem collapse. Many ecosystems have irreversible tipping points. Since their locations are often unknown, metrics may provide an early warning of collapse but are difficult to apply because they need long time series which are usually lacking. Thi ....Tipping points and early warning signals in complex ecosystems. This project aims to create a theory of early warning that uses spatial data available on system state, connectivity and environmental stress, and to create tools to infer the risk of ecosystem collapse. Many ecosystems have irreversible tipping points. Since their locations are often unknown, metrics may provide an early warning of collapse but are difficult to apply because they need long time series which are usually lacking. This project will use the Great Barrier Reef as a testbed because it has both long time series (standard approach) and rich spatial data (new approach), and exhibits early warning signs. We will use these tools to gauge whether symptoms on the Great Barrier Reef predict local collapse and to develop intervention plans.Read moreRead less
Impact of increased sediment and nutrient discharges on the long-term sustainability of the Great Barrier Reef. The Great Barrier Reef, one of Australia's greatest natural assets, is under increasing threat from extreme climatic events caused by global warming and from land-based pollution. This research will identify the main sources of sediment and nutrient pollution caused by river runoff and by how much this has increased above 'natural levels'. We will discover how the very sensitive offsho ....Impact of increased sediment and nutrient discharges on the long-term sustainability of the Great Barrier Reef. The Great Barrier Reef, one of Australia's greatest natural assets, is under increasing threat from extreme climatic events caused by global warming and from land-based pollution. This research will identify the main sources of sediment and nutrient pollution caused by river runoff and by how much this has increased above 'natural levels'. We will discover how the very sensitive offshore coral reefs have responded to increased pollution and whether this is the cause of the very devastating crown-of-thorn-starfish infestations. Understanding the long-term effects of land-based pollution on the ecology of coral reefs in the GBR will thus provide a scientific basis to help ensure that it has a sustainable future.Read moreRead less
Linking phytoplankton to fisheries using zooplankton size spectra. This project aims to develop innovative numerical methods to understand the dynamics, carbon export, and trophic structure of zooplankton. The trophic links between phytoplankton, zooplankton and fisheries are unknown. The size- frequency distribution of zooplankton (size spectrum) is an innovative method for estimating their growth, predation and production as food for fish. Analysis of a global synthesis of zooplankton size dis ....Linking phytoplankton to fisheries using zooplankton size spectra. This project aims to develop innovative numerical methods to understand the dynamics, carbon export, and trophic structure of zooplankton. The trophic links between phytoplankton, zooplankton and fisheries are unknown. The size- frequency distribution of zooplankton (size spectrum) is an innovative method for estimating their growth, predation and production as food for fish. Analysis of a global synthesis of zooplankton size distributions from tropical to polar environments are expected to reveal these vital rates of pelagic ecosystems. The zooplankton rates will reveal, for the first time, the link between phytoplankton and fisheries, and will significantly improve ecosystem models and global assessments of environmental change.Read moreRead less
THE CORAL RECORD OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS IN THE GREAT BARRIER REEF:QUANTIFICATION OF ANTHROPOGENIC FLUXES. The objective of this proposal is to quantify the environmental impacts of enhanced terrestrial fluxes and climate change on the coral reefs in the Great Barrier Reef. This will be achieved by using an integrated approach based on coral proxy records of river plumes and sea surface temperatures that are preserved in carbonate skeletons of the long-lived (200-400 year old) Porites coral. ....THE CORAL RECORD OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS IN THE GREAT BARRIER REEF:QUANTIFICATION OF ANTHROPOGENIC FLUXES. The objective of this proposal is to quantify the environmental impacts of enhanced terrestrial fluxes and climate change on the coral reefs in the Great Barrier Reef. This will be achieved by using an integrated approach based on coral proxy records of river plumes and sea surface temperatures that are preserved in carbonate skeletons of the long-lived (200-400 year old) Porites coral. This will be integrated with monitoring and process studies of river flood plumes and coral reefs and provide a scientific basis to ensure the long-term sustainability of the GBR.Read moreRead less
Biodiversity indicators for better conservation decisions. This project aims to test, design and select biodiversity indicators to support conservation. Reliable and sensitive biodiversity indicators are critical to track progress towards conservation targets, but the ability of most biodiversity indicators to reveal trends needed by decision-makers is untested. This project will test indicators to monitor biodiversity change at local to global scales, by sampling ecosystem models to evaluate ho ....Biodiversity indicators for better conservation decisions. This project aims to test, design and select biodiversity indicators to support conservation. Reliable and sensitive biodiversity indicators are critical to track progress towards conservation targets, but the ability of most biodiversity indicators to reveal trends needed by decision-makers is untested. This project will test indicators to monitor biodiversity change at local to global scales, by sampling ecosystem models to evaluate how indicator design, data bias and environmental variability affect performance. Project outcomes are expected to ensure that that data collected to monitor and assess the state of Australia’s environment are informative, cost-effective and robust. This is expected to have implications for predicting and measuring effects of policy such as the Convention on Biological Diversity.Read moreRead less
Bioeconomic Modelling of Marine Reserves. Australian waters contain a huge range of biodiversity, but are under threat from human activities. To face this challenge and resolve the problems of depleted fisheries and habitat destruction, innovative approaches are required to integrate marine biology with fisheries economics. The research meets this immediate need by developing bioeconomic models of marine reserves to determine reserve location and size, and analyse interactions between reserves a ....Bioeconomic Modelling of Marine Reserves. Australian waters contain a huge range of biodiversity, but are under threat from human activities. To face this challenge and resolve the problems of depleted fisheries and habitat destruction, innovative approaches are required to integrate marine biology with fisheries economics. The research meets this immediate need by developing bioeconomic models of marine reserves to determine reserve location and size, and analyse interactions between reserves and harvested areas under environmental uncertainty. The models will be developed using the latest developments in economics, biology and numerical methods and will be used to conserve Australia's marine biodiversity and improve fisheries management.Read moreRead less
Adaptive economic management of Australia's urban water. This project responds to the so-called 'wicked problem' of ensuring an adequate supply of water to urban consumers at the lowest price even during long-term droughts. The project will generate, for the first time in the world, an integrated, dynamic, and adaptive supply and demand model to manage urban water optimally over time.
Enhancing biodiversity and ecosystem services in production landscapes. This project aims to develop new approaches using causal inference, optimal allocation theory, and spatial statistics to characterise impacts on a diverse suite of ecosystem services. It will endeavour to develop case studies from three continents and generalisations explicitly tested using simulated landscapes. Environmental and agricultural policies promote land sharing (biodiversity-friendly production) or land sparing (p ....Enhancing biodiversity and ecosystem services in production landscapes. This project aims to develop new approaches using causal inference, optimal allocation theory, and spatial statistics to characterise impacts on a diverse suite of ecosystem services. It will endeavour to develop case studies from three continents and generalisations explicitly tested using simulated landscapes. Environmental and agricultural policies promote land sharing (biodiversity-friendly production) or land sparing (protected areas, with yield increases elsewhere). Yet the impacts of such policies in diverse contexts and for multiple outcomes are poorly understood. The project could advance our ability to deliver sustainable outcomes and more effective as well as equitable policies for production landscapes.Read moreRead less
Quantifying the El Niño-Indian Ocean Dipole system using high-resolution coral palaeoclimate archives. The ocean surrounding Indonesia is the warmest on Earth and a major source of energy for global atmospheric circulation. Understanding the role of the Warm Pool in future climate change is of key importance, but highly controversial because the potential extent of its variability is largely unknown. To address this issue, this project will provide the first major geochemical investigation of ....Quantifying the El Niño-Indian Ocean Dipole system using high-resolution coral palaeoclimate archives. The ocean surrounding Indonesia is the warmest on Earth and a major source of energy for global atmospheric circulation. Understanding the role of the Warm Pool in future climate change is of key importance, but highly controversial because the potential extent of its variability is largely unknown. To address this issue, this project will provide the first major geochemical investigation of recently discovered ancient corals in Indonesia using state-of-the-art microanalytical techniques. Outcomes from these palaeoclimate records will advance our understanding of global climate change, rainfall variability related to the El Nino - Indian Ocean Dipole system, and Australian drought.Read moreRead less
A cross-national study of the relative impact of an oral component on PhD examination quality, language and practice. High quality doctoral degrees call for the most effective forms of assessment. This project investigates the role of oral examination in PhD assessment, common internationally but not in Australia, and is the first to compare the relative impact of oral and 'no oral' models on examination quality, language and practice.