A framework for model emulation and ensemble modelling. For improved water resource management there is a need for further development of appropriate hydrologic models. This project will undertake a collection of hydrologic modelling activities performed at multiple catchments in Australia. A modeling framework that is flexible, extendible and accounts for potential forecast uncertainties will be developed.
Development of a generic catchment classification framework in hydrology. Hydrologic models play a vital role in water resource planning and management, but identification of a suitable model for a given catchment remains a basic problem. This research develops a generic framework to classify catchments into groups and sub-groups, and will offer a significantly better way for hydrologic model development and application.
Water availability and demand: better forecasts, better management. This project aims to improve Australia’s capability in the provision and use of water forecasts for managing water resources. The current water forecasts are not fully utilised by water agencies as they are not sufficiently comprehensive and advanced. This project expects to achieve a step change in the uptake and utility of hydro-climate forecasts through an extensive partnership of leading researchers and operational agencies ....Water availability and demand: better forecasts, better management. This project aims to improve Australia’s capability in the provision and use of water forecasts for managing water resources. The current water forecasts are not fully utilised by water agencies as they are not sufficiently comprehensive and advanced. This project expects to achieve a step change in the uptake and utility of hydro-climate forecasts through an extensive partnership of leading researchers and operational agencies of hydro-climate forecasting, with federal, state and regional water agencies.Read moreRead less
A decadal to inter-decadal streamflow prediction system. This project will develop the first ever decadal streamflow prediction system for Australia, leading to predictions of streamflow for the next 10 years and beyond that take into account both natural climatic variability (driven by factors such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation) and changing greenhouse gas concentrations due to a warming planet.
Uncertainty quantification in terrestrial hydrologic systems. This project aims to develop a framework to simulate, quantify and analyse the uncertainty in streamflow and vegetation dynamics via approximate Bayesian computation. Water is a fundamental resource, and a difficulty in water resource management is to make predictions in a changing environment. Uncertainties in predictions of natural systems due to observational and model error make this more difficult. It is anticipated that the resu ....Uncertainty quantification in terrestrial hydrologic systems. This project aims to develop a framework to simulate, quantify and analyse the uncertainty in streamflow and vegetation dynamics via approximate Bayesian computation. Water is a fundamental resource, and a difficulty in water resource management is to make predictions in a changing environment. Uncertainties in predictions of natural systems due to observational and model error make this more difficult. It is anticipated that the results from this project will advance uncertainty analysis in hydrology and help understand how different types of data and information can inform model characterisation. This will be useful in providing vital information on the attributes and extent of uncertainty to inform water resources analysis, management and decision making.Read moreRead less
Exploring water worlds for ecohydrologic modelling of ephemeral catchments. This project aims to identify and quantify the key processes driving the generation of streamflow in ephemeral catchments with different rainfall regimes, topography, geology, and two contrasting land uses. Four ephemeral catchments in south-western Victoria will be used as a case study to identify how these catchments store and release water. Particular focus will be directed to understanding the roles of groundwater an ....Exploring water worlds for ecohydrologic modelling of ephemeral catchments. This project aims to identify and quantify the key processes driving the generation of streamflow in ephemeral catchments with different rainfall regimes, topography, geology, and two contrasting land uses. Four ephemeral catchments in south-western Victoria will be used as a case study to identify how these catchments store and release water. Particular focus will be directed to understanding the roles of groundwater and surface runoff in supplying the streams when they flow, and how rainfall is partitioned between tree water use, groundwater recharge, and streamflow. The outcomes from experimental observations will be used to improve current hydrological models to support land and water management.Read moreRead less
Forecasting drought impacts months ahead using satellite data. Skillful seasonal water and crop forecasts could do much to help cope with drought and water-related food crises. Recent advances in hydrological modelling and satellite remote sensing of surface soil moisture, landscape water storage and vegetation biomass have created a great opportunity to produce such forecasts over large areas. This project will exploit that opportunity by assimilating the satellite observations into a global wa ....Forecasting drought impacts months ahead using satellite data. Skillful seasonal water and crop forecasts could do much to help cope with drought and water-related food crises. Recent advances in hydrological modelling and satellite remote sensing of surface soil moisture, landscape water storage and vegetation biomass have created a great opportunity to produce such forecasts over large areas. This project will exploit that opportunity by assimilating the satellite observations into a global water and vegetation forecasting model. The resulting improvement in seasonal forecasts of stream flow, soil moisture and crop production will be quantified and compared to the limited forecasts that are currently available.Read moreRead less
A robust integrated streamflow forecasting framework for Australian water information and management agencies. This project aims to deliver an accurate and reliable seasonal streamflow forecasting system for Australian water users by developing a flexible rainfall-runoff modelling approach integrated into a Bayesian inference and prediction framework. These scientific developments aim to significantly advance the operational capabilities of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to deliver robust ....A robust integrated streamflow forecasting framework for Australian water information and management agencies. This project aims to deliver an accurate and reliable seasonal streamflow forecasting system for Australian water users by developing a flexible rainfall-runoff modelling approach integrated into a Bayesian inference and prediction framework. These scientific developments aim to significantly advance the operational capabilities of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to deliver robust streamflow forecasts to water agencies such as South East Queensland Water and others across Australia. Accurate predictions of future water flows are of tremendous value to urban and rural Australian communities whose economic prosperity, water security and social well-being depend on reliable estimates of water availability.Read moreRead less
Delivering robust hydrological predictions for Australia’s water challenges. This project aims to build a virtual hydrological laboratory to identify the best hydrological models that maximise predictive performance in a range of catchments, accounting for their dominant hydrological processes and data availability. New process-informed hydrological model structures will be developed using this virtual laboratory to embody our best understanding of hydrological processes and data from real catch ....Delivering robust hydrological predictions for Australia’s water challenges. This project aims to build a virtual hydrological laboratory to identify the best hydrological models that maximise predictive performance in a range of catchments, accounting for their dominant hydrological processes and data availability. New process-informed hydrological model structures will be developed using this virtual laboratory to embody our best understanding of hydrological processes and data from real catchments. The expected outcomes include major improvements in hydrological predictions for Australian catchments. This project will provide major benefits to irrigators, water authorities and engineers, who rely on hydrological predictions for sustainable water management in the highly-variable, semi-arid Australian climate.Read moreRead less
Reconstructing millennial-scale streamflow variability to assess near-future risks to water-generated renewable energy. Hydroelectric power is a key component of Australia's national renewable energy policy. The project will combine Hydro Tasmania's water supply and distribution network with historical reconstructions of streamflow variability to conduct stress tests of future water supplies and hydroelectric generating capacity for the Australian power grid.