Simulating the evolution of the Southern Ocean and Australia's Palaeo-environment over 40 million years. Our project falls in the first national research priority: an environmentally sustainable Australia and meets two of its primary goals, understanding environmental change and the evolution of biodiversity, and responding to climate change and variability. Our models will represent a major step forward in differentiating between natural processes and anthropological input to present global cli ....Simulating the evolution of the Southern Ocean and Australia's Palaeo-environment over 40 million years. Our project falls in the first national research priority: an environmentally sustainable Australia and meets two of its primary goals, understanding environmental change and the evolution of biodiversity, and responding to climate change and variability. Our models will represent a major step forward in differentiating between natural processes and anthropological input to present global climate change and will address quantitatively how Australia changed from a continent rich in freshwater to the driest inhabited continent throughout the last 40 million years.Read moreRead less
Simulation Technology for Modelling Extreme Bushfire Behaviour. Extreme fires cause immeasurable damage to communities through destruction of homes and damage to infrastructure. Large, highly intense fires reduce biodiversity, take decades for recovery, increase greenhouse gas emissions and reduce carbon storage capacity. Climate change is likely to increase the frequency of extreme fire weather increasing the need for reliable fire spread prediction under extreme conditions and to reduce impa ....Simulation Technology for Modelling Extreme Bushfire Behaviour. Extreme fires cause immeasurable damage to communities through destruction of homes and damage to infrastructure. Large, highly intense fires reduce biodiversity, take decades for recovery, increase greenhouse gas emissions and reduce carbon storage capacity. Climate change is likely to increase the frequency of extreme fire weather increasing the need for reliable fire spread prediction under extreme conditions and to reduce impact by preparedness and suppression. Incorporating an evidence-based fire spread model into a fire location forecasting system will give fire agencies early warning of potentially disastrous fires, enable early response to prevent fires and mitigate the consequence to life, property and the environment. Read moreRead less
Australia's mammalian carnivore diversity in space and time. To more effectively address the current extinction crisis we need to understand past diversity. This research program will comprehensively investigate the diversity of mammalian carnivores on three continents over geological time. Results will provide insight into whether the evolution of Australia's mammal carnivores differs fundamentally from those of other continents, as has often been suggested but not quantitatively demonstrated. ....Australia's mammalian carnivore diversity in space and time. To more effectively address the current extinction crisis we need to understand past diversity. This research program will comprehensively investigate the diversity of mammalian carnivores on three continents over geological time. Results will provide insight into whether the evolution of Australia's mammal carnivores differs fundamentally from those of other continents, as has often been suggested but not quantitatively demonstrated. Studies focused in the present are important, but often miss critical factors that can only be clarified through analyses with deep time perspectives. The findings will translate into an improved understanding of what makes Australia unique and better-informed decisions regarding wildlife management.Read moreRead less
Tectonic Reconstruction of the Evolution of the Alpine-Himalayan Orogenic Chain. This project will construct a computationally explicit model of movements in the solid Earth for the past 150 million years, to study the Earth as a complex system during the collision that produced the Alpine-Himalayan mountain belt. This is the youngest collisional mountain belt on Earth, and at times it stretched from Spain to New Zealand. Earth Scientists want to understand the processes that took place to mak ....Tectonic Reconstruction of the Evolution of the Alpine-Himalayan Orogenic Chain. This project will construct a computationally explicit model of movements in the solid Earth for the past 150 million years, to study the Earth as a complex system during the collision that produced the Alpine-Himalayan mountain belt. This is the youngest collisional mountain belt on Earth, and at times it stretched from Spain to New Zealand. Earth Scientists want to understand the processes that took place to make it, in particular the role of ribbon continents. As a result of this work ordinary Australians will be able to better perceive their interactions with their nearest neighbours.Read moreRead less
Climate change: adaptation and resilience in the face of uncertainty. Climate change poses a wide range of challenges to Australia's agricultural sector and for the management of natural ecosystems. These challenges are recognised in the National Research Priorities 1, An Environmentally Sustainable Australia, and 4, Safeguarding Australia. The potential economic costs of climate change to vital national assets such as the Murray-Darling Basin and the Great Barrier Reef, amount to billions of do ....Climate change: adaptation and resilience in the face of uncertainty. Climate change poses a wide range of challenges to Australia's agricultural sector and for the management of natural ecosystems. These challenges are recognised in the National Research Priorities 1, An Environmentally Sustainable Australia, and 4, Safeguarding Australia. The potential economic costs of climate change to vital national assets such as the Murray-Darling Basin and the Great Barrier Reef, amount to billions of dollars per year, and ecological costs are even more significant. Uncertainty about the rate at which climate change will take place and about effects in different regions is central to the problem. This project will explore adaptive management strategies that promote resilience in the face of uncertainty.
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Anatomy of a biodiversity hotspot: investigating the evolutionary and ecological basis of high plant diversity in southwestern Australia. Southwestern Australia - Australia's only global biodiversity hotspot - has an exceptionally rich flora but has suffered extensive habitat loss, so many rare plants are threatened with extinction. Further, this region is expected to suffer severely under projected climate change scenarios, lending urgency to efforts to describe and understand the regions plant ....Anatomy of a biodiversity hotspot: investigating the evolutionary and ecological basis of high plant diversity in southwestern Australia. Southwestern Australia - Australia's only global biodiversity hotspot - has an exceptionally rich flora but has suffered extensive habitat loss, so many rare plants are threatened with extinction. Further, this region is expected to suffer severely under projected climate change scenarios, lending urgency to efforts to describe and understand the regions plant biodiversity. This project will provide the first description and analysis of an important but hitherto little-known aspect of biodiversity, the evolutionary structure of ecological communities. This will enhance our understanding of how communities are assembled, providing a stronger scientific basis for sustainable management of the southwest's biodiversity.Read moreRead less
Modelling species distributions for a changing world. Understanding the impacts of climate change and invasive species on the distribution and persistence of species is an issue of global and national significance and concern. This project will provide tools essential for the effective management of Australia's ecosystems by delivering clear guidelines and practical methods that will substantially improve the modelling of future species distributions.
Optimal environmental monitoring under severe uncertainty. Environmental monitoring is a type of quality control that informs managers about the health of the environment and about how well their management systems are performing. Because it is a critical, but expensive, component of sustainable management, it is important to ensure value for resources spent on monitoring and that environmental impacts will be detected if they are occurring. We argue that current approaches to environmental mana ....Optimal environmental monitoring under severe uncertainty. Environmental monitoring is a type of quality control that informs managers about the health of the environment and about how well their management systems are performing. Because it is a critical, but expensive, component of sustainable management, it is important to ensure value for resources spent on monitoring and that environmental impacts will be detected if they are occurring. We argue that current approaches to environmental management ensure neither efficiency nor environmental security. The aim of the project is to develop theories and techniques to make monitoring both cost effective and reliable, thereby providing monetary savings and better environmental outcomes.Read moreRead less
Stress, virulence and bacterial disease in temperate seaweeds: the rise of the microbes. Climate change is predicted to increase the spread and virulence of pathogens, and decrease the resistance to disease via temperature stress on the hosts. Combined with other human impacts (higher nutrients, pollution), we may be facing a major rise in the effect of disease on natural communities. However, these effects are largely unstudied. We will investigate the impact of marine pathogens on kelps and ....Stress, virulence and bacterial disease in temperate seaweeds: the rise of the microbes. Climate change is predicted to increase the spread and virulence of pathogens, and decrease the resistance to disease via temperature stress on the hosts. Combined with other human impacts (higher nutrients, pollution), we may be facing a major rise in the effect of disease on natural communities. However, these effects are largely unstudied. We will investigate the impact of marine pathogens on kelps and other seaweeds when they are stressed by temperature, elevated nutrients or other anthropogenic stressors. Kelp are the 'trees of the oceans', the organisms responsible for creating much of the habitat that fishes and other organisms live in. The loss of kelp forests due to disease would radically change these environments.Read moreRead less
Density regulation as a major determinant of population persistence: advancing empirical and theoretical approaches to conserve biodiversity. Without efficient application of limited conservation resources, more species will go extinct and invasive species will continue to proliferate. With a better understanding of extinction processes, a higher benefit:cost ratio will ensure better outcomes for biodiversity. We will directly address (1) the sustainable use of Australia's biodiversity by provid ....Density regulation as a major determinant of population persistence: advancing empirical and theoretical approaches to conserve biodiversity. Without efficient application of limited conservation resources, more species will go extinct and invasive species will continue to proliferate. With a better understanding of extinction processes, a higher benefit:cost ratio will ensure better outcomes for biodiversity. We will directly address (1) the sustainable use of Australia's biodiversity by providing evidence-based support for minimum viable population size targets to avoid extinction; (2) responding to climate change by determining the species- and environmentally specific contexts leading to elevated risks of extinction; and (3) protecting Australia from invasive diseases and pests by determining density targets that maximise eradication success.Read moreRead less