Asymptotics in non-linear cointegrating regression: theory and applications. This project provides fundamental research in statistics, econometrics and probability. The results on martingales and nonlinear functionals of integrated stochastic processes will apply to a range of statistical, empirical finance and economic models.
Non-linear cointegrating regression with endogeneity. This project aims to develop the asymptotic theory of estimation and statistical inference in models concerned with non-linear co-integrating regression with endogeneity and long memory. This project will tackle a number of long-standing technical problems related to non-linear covariance functionals and non-linear transformation of nonstationary time series. This project is intended to provide technical tools for practitioners to study the l ....Non-linear cointegrating regression with endogeneity. This project aims to develop the asymptotic theory of estimation and statistical inference in models concerned with non-linear co-integrating regression with endogeneity and long memory. This project will tackle a number of long-standing technical problems related to non-linear covariance functionals and non-linear transformation of nonstationary time series. This project is intended to provide technical tools for practitioners to study the long-run relationship of economic variables, and could apply to a range of statistical, empirical finance and economic models, enhancing national leadership in these areas.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE200100896
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$427,008.00
Summary
How to beat model uncertainty with more information. Experience of the 2008 financial crisis exposed a weakness in our over-reliance on mathematical models. The main aim of this project is to develop mathematical tools to investigate the role of information in reducing model uncertainty. The project will undertake pressing research in robust finance, which is now one of the most active and dynamic topics in financial mathematics. It expects to quantify the value of information under uncertainty ....How to beat model uncertainty with more information. Experience of the 2008 financial crisis exposed a weakness in our over-reliance on mathematical models. The main aim of this project is to develop mathematical tools to investigate the role of information in reducing model uncertainty. The project will undertake pressing research in robust finance, which is now one of the most active and dynamic topics in financial mathematics. It expects to quantify the value of information under uncertainty in mathematical modelling. It will generate new knowledge in probability theory and stochastic processes providing a significant mathematical contribution in its own right.Read moreRead less
Frontiers of Risk Modelling: Dependence and Extremes of Levy Processes. This project plans to continue an ongoing theoretical study into continuous-time stochastic processes, concentrating on developing tools for the further analysis and understanding of extremal and multivariate phenomena with applications to portfolio analysis, value-at risk calculations and complex financial instruments, with particular emphasis on practical applications of the methodologies in the insurance and finance indus ....Frontiers of Risk Modelling: Dependence and Extremes of Levy Processes. This project plans to continue an ongoing theoretical study into continuous-time stochastic processes, concentrating on developing tools for the further analysis and understanding of extremal and multivariate phenomena with applications to portfolio analysis, value-at risk calculations and complex financial instruments, with particular emphasis on practical applications of the methodologies in the insurance and finance industries. Expected outcomes would be of direct interest to these industries as well as having significant mathematical interest.Read moreRead less
Improving risk management based on short-term stochastic forecast for financial decisions. The project targets the problems of strategy selection in the framework of mathematical finance. The aim is to find ways to reduce the impact of forecast errors in the presence of uncertainty. Related forecasting algorithms and solutions of optimization problems will be obtained.
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE130100819
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$281,600.00
Summary
Measuring the improbable: optimal Monte Carlo methods for rare event simulation of maxima of dependent random variables. Some events occurring with low frequency can have dramatic consequences: natural catastrophes, economic crises, system malfunctions. Estimating their probabilities is a very difficult problem. This project will develop new simulation methods capable of delivering the most precise and efficient estimators for the probabilities of such events.
Random network models with applications in biology. Complex biological systems consist of a large number of interacting agents or components, and so can be studied using mathematical random network models. We aim to gain deeper insights into the laws emerging as the random networks evolve in time. This can help us to deal with dangerous disease epidemics and better understand the human brain.
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE210101085
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$323,692.00
Summary
Stability of Multilateral Agreements and the Limits to Cooperation. This project aims to analyze the stability of multilateral agreements. This is expected to be done by building upon the cooperative approach in game theory that focuses on groups as the primary decision makers. Moving the unit of analysis from an individual to a group has the advantage of widening the applicability of game theoretic methods to social issues. Consequently, the project is expected to enhance our understanding of h ....Stability of Multilateral Agreements and the Limits to Cooperation. This project aims to analyze the stability of multilateral agreements. This is expected to be done by building upon the cooperative approach in game theory that focuses on groups as the primary decision makers. Moving the unit of analysis from an individual to a group has the advantage of widening the applicability of game theoretic methods to social issues. Consequently, the project is expected to enhance our understanding of how and why cooperation can be sustained in some of the most pressing challenges faced by the society today that require extensive international collaboration to overcome, such as environmental change, trade disputes, and arms-control.
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Resilient Democracy for the 21st Century. This project will establish novel foundational theoretical frameworks for the design of democratic institutions that can withstand internal and external pressure towards autocratisation. It will develop state of the art dynamic models of information manipulation and political dynamics, and analyse large-scale online survey experiments, as well as contemporary and historical data. This combination will deliver new insights into the management of sensitive ....Resilient Democracy for the 21st Century. This project will establish novel foundational theoretical frameworks for the design of democratic institutions that can withstand internal and external pressure towards autocratisation. It will develop state of the art dynamic models of information manipulation and political dynamics, and analyse large-scale online survey experiments, as well as contemporary and historical data. This combination will deliver new insights into the management of sensitive information and how to protect democracy from information manipulation. Ultimately, the project will generate a body of theoretical and empirical evidence for the design of more effective and resilient democratic institutions for a more inclusive economic development. Read moreRead less
Inductive game theory: experiential knowledge, interactions, and limited inferences in social contexts. This research project stresses the importance of limited experiences and limited inferential abilities for explaining differences observed across individuals and groups in society. The project will use inductive game theory to attack problems and conflicts between individuals and groups based on such limitations.