The Mathematical and Philosophical Foundations of Probability. We find probability wherever we find uncertainty: virtually everywhere in our lives. Probability is essential to almost every technology. High-stakes decisions are routinely made on the basis of probability judgments and risk assessment-for example, in engineering, medicine, agriculture, environmental management, urban planning, public policy, public health, the law, and in our national defence. And some of those decisions have been ....The Mathematical and Philosophical Foundations of Probability. We find probability wherever we find uncertainty: virtually everywhere in our lives. Probability is essential to almost every technology. High-stakes decisions are routinely made on the basis of probability judgments and risk assessment-for example, in engineering, medicine, agriculture, environmental management, urban planning, public policy, public health, the law, and in our national defence. And some of those decisions have been made badly because of poor probability estimates-witness the 1986 space shuttle disaster. Our current methodologies for using probability are inadequate. This project will make an important contribution to the collective enterprise of enhancing our understanding of probability and its myriad applications.Read moreRead less
Optimal Control Computation and Analysis of Switched Systems with State and Control Constraints. DC/DC converters are widely used in power supply systems and hybrid power systems generate cleaner energy. Achieving optimum performance in these applications has high commercial and environmental impacts. New optimal control problems for such practical problems will be formulated and new unified optimization theory and methods for these optimal control problems will be obtained. The outcomes will en ....Optimal Control Computation and Analysis of Switched Systems with State and Control Constraints. DC/DC converters are widely used in power supply systems and hybrid power systems generate cleaner energy. Achieving optimum performance in these applications has high commercial and environmental impacts. New optimal control problems for such practical problems will be formulated and new unified optimization theory and methods for these optimal control problems will be obtained. The outcomes will enhance Australia's reputation in this cutting edge research, and contribute to achieving optimal performance of high commercial and environmental value applications. It will also facilitate international collaboration, and provide an excellent opportunity for research training.Read moreRead less
Investment Approaches and Applications in Financial Markets: Evolutionary Kernel Based Subset Time-Series Using Semi-Parametric Approaches. The project will develop new investment assessments based on subset time-series modeling. Innovative evolutionary kernel smoothing algorithms using semi-parametric approaches will be introduced. The project will make three important applications of this modeling in financial markets: a) benchmarking and evaluation of inflation-indexed bonds; b) evaluation of ....Investment Approaches and Applications in Financial Markets: Evolutionary Kernel Based Subset Time-Series Using Semi-Parametric Approaches. The project will develop new investment assessments based on subset time-series modeling. Innovative evolutionary kernel smoothing algorithms using semi-parametric approaches will be introduced. The project will make three important applications of this modeling in financial markets: a) benchmarking and evaluation of inflation-indexed bonds; b) evaluation of the performance of global diversified investment funds; and c) prediction to provide early warning of the emergence of destabilising deflation or inflation. These three applications will lead to improved risk management practices and investment performance. Recursive algorithms will provide new statistical methods to study investment asset price movements and market volatility.
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The improvement of climate change investigations by developing and applying innovative evolutionary subset time series modelling using semi-parametric sparse-patterned approaches. With an estimated US$6.98 trillion loss indicated in the Stern review, severe climate change will make world climate conditions harsher and more likely include large natural climate disasters. The health of the Australian economy is critically dependent on decisions of environmental managers. However, most problems of ....The improvement of climate change investigations by developing and applying innovative evolutionary subset time series modelling using semi-parametric sparse-patterned approaches. With an estimated US$6.98 trillion loss indicated in the Stern review, severe climate change will make world climate conditions harsher and more likely include large natural climate disasters. The health of the Australian economy is critically dependent on decisions of environmental managers. However, most problems of complexity arising in climate change involve issues on which we do not possess a deep understanding. This project draws upon a set of inter-disciplinary concepts and models centred in neural networks that enable us to advance our understanding of complexity, leading to superior quantitative tools and models to allow for improved environmental decision-making.
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Investment approaches and opportunities in renewable energy and financial resource markets, using semi-parametric approaches to evolutionary subset time-series lattice-ladder modelling. The project findings will help Australian exporters and importers understand and manage energy and resource price risks more effectively. The investment community will benefit through selecting optimal asset allocations and enhancing value to investors. It will also benefit many other agencies, particularly in th ....Investment approaches and opportunities in renewable energy and financial resource markets, using semi-parametric approaches to evolutionary subset time-series lattice-ladder modelling. The project findings will help Australian exporters and importers understand and manage energy and resource price risks more effectively. The investment community will benefit through selecting optimal asset allocations and enhancing value to investors. It will also benefit many other agencies, particularly in the service industries. It is not well recognised that in developed countries, including Australia, the financial service and related sectors account for more than 60 percent of economic activity and employment, so it is critical that more sophisticated statistical methods be established, and practical applications conducted, in order to advance the understanding of complexity management in the financial service and related sectors.Read moreRead less
The improvement of investment approaches by developing and applying bootstrap methods to innovative evolutionary kernel-based subset time-series modelling. With over $1 trillion of investors' monies in the hands of fund managers, the importance of efficient investment decisions across all industry sectors is self evident. Even if the modest target of systematically improving decision making by 1 or 2 % is set, the aggregate economic benefit achieved, given the compounding effects will be enormou ....The improvement of investment approaches by developing and applying bootstrap methods to innovative evolutionary kernel-based subset time-series modelling. With over $1 trillion of investors' monies in the hands of fund managers, the importance of efficient investment decisions across all industry sectors is self evident. Even if the modest target of systematically improving decision making by 1 or 2 % is set, the aggregate economic benefit achieved, given the compounding effects will be enormous. Any developed or developing country will profit from such advanced decision-making approaches. Therefore it is critical that more sophisticated statistical methods be established, and practical applications conducted, in order to advance the understanding of complexity management in the financial investment and other relevant sectors.Read moreRead less
Reasons and Rationality. The project explains how we assess the truth and falsehood of everyday claims about what people have reason to do. It also explains what legitimizes our practice of praising and blaming people for their success and failure at doing what we think they have reason to do. In so doing it provides a foundation for both our ordinary practice of holding people responsible, and for the more institutionalised counterpart of this ordinary practice in the law.
The scientific ape: the evolution of the animal fable after Darwin. This project will contribute to national and international debates over the understanding of human nature, the human propensity for violence towards other beings and the possibility of mutually supportive relations with our natural environment. By demonstrating literature's capacity to intervene meaningfully into conceptual debates about the literary representation of animals, it will enhance Australia's international scholarly ....The scientific ape: the evolution of the animal fable after Darwin. This project will contribute to national and international debates over the understanding of human nature, the human propensity for violence towards other beings and the possibility of mutually supportive relations with our natural environment. By demonstrating literature's capacity to intervene meaningfully into conceptual debates about the literary representation of animals, it will enhance Australia's international scholarly profile in the emerging field of animal studies. It will also contribute to the international renown of Australian scholarship in traditional literary studies by producing the first theoretically informed reassessment of the literary genre of the fable.Read moreRead less
Ethics and Formal Theories of Decision. The benefits of this project will include improved methods for making ethically-informed decisions in various practical situations. Among the more important applications are legal decisions and conservation management. The theory developed in this project will also help shed light on both the statistical and ethical issues raised in much-debated areas such as racial profiling. The project will also serve to enhance Australia's reputation in technical philo ....Ethics and Formal Theories of Decision. The benefits of this project will include improved methods for making ethically-informed decisions in various practical situations. Among the more important applications are legal decisions and conservation management. The theory developed in this project will also help shed light on both the statistical and ethical issues raised in much-debated areas such as racial profiling. The project will also serve to enhance Australia's reputation in technical philosophy and decision theory.Read moreRead less
Nonsmooth Optimization in Constrained Spline Interpolation. Traditional methods based on standard calculus may not work for optimization problems with constraints; however, such problems can be reformulated as nonsmooth problems that need special treatment. The project aims to approach several important problems in constrained spline interpolation and approximation, from the perspective of nonsmooth optimization. The research, which builds upon a recent breakthrough in the approach to the convex ....Nonsmooth Optimization in Constrained Spline Interpolation. Traditional methods based on standard calculus may not work for optimization problems with constraints; however, such problems can be reformulated as nonsmooth problems that need special treatment. The project aims to approach several important problems in constrained spline interpolation and approximation, from the perspective of nonsmooth optimization. The research, which builds upon a recent breakthrough in the approach to the convex best interpolation by the applicant and his collaborators, is expected to provide fundamental theory for Newton-type methods being used for these problems with a vast number of applications in data fitting and curve and surface design.Read moreRead less