Bayesian Inference for Multivariate Hierarchical Regression Models. This project will develop Bayesian methodology for analysing multivariate regression models. The distribution of each measurement can be discrete or continuous, with the dependence between measurements obtained through the correlation matrix of a Gaussian copula. Model parsimony is obtained by identifying zero elements in the correlation matrix or its inverse and by variable selection on the regression parameters. The results wi ....Bayesian Inference for Multivariate Hierarchical Regression Models. This project will develop Bayesian methodology for analysing multivariate regression models. The distribution of each measurement can be discrete or continuous, with the dependence between measurements obtained through the correlation matrix of a Gaussian copula. Model parsimony is obtained by identifying zero elements in the correlation matrix or its inverse and by variable selection on the regression parameters. The results will be applied to solve problems in finance, health management and marketing. In all these fields multiple observations are often taken per individual or time period and the models need to incorporate measures of dependence and uncertainty.Read moreRead less
Nano-Rheology and Nano-Tribology: Atomistic Simulation of Boundary Lubrication. Manufacturing in atomic level is going to transform the efficiency level in many important applications. As molecular biology transformed medical and biological sciences,so molecular level material design and the techniques involved are going to significantly affect the engineering applications and manufacturing in coming decades. We have no doubt the benefits will flow from the project to many disciplines that are c ....Nano-Rheology and Nano-Tribology: Atomistic Simulation of Boundary Lubrication. Manufacturing in atomic level is going to transform the efficiency level in many important applications. As molecular biology transformed medical and biological sciences,so molecular level material design and the techniques involved are going to significantly affect the engineering applications and manufacturing in coming decades. We have no doubt the benefits will flow from the project to many disciplines that are critical in manufacturing and commercialisation of nano-devices. The results will position Australia in the forefront of one of the most important leading edge technologies in the world. This not only will improve Australia's research profile in the world but also will enable it to capitalize on any future commercial outcomesRead moreRead less
Stochastic Methods for Dynamic Risk Management. In today's environment of intense competitive pressures, volatile economic conditions, rising bankruptcies, and increasing levels of consumer and commercial debt, an organization's ability to effectively monitor and manage its credit risk can mean the difference between success and survival. The improvement of dynamic risk management systems is also an essential part of the new regulatory Capital Adequacy Proposal Basel II in which risk-sensitive c ....Stochastic Methods for Dynamic Risk Management. In today's environment of intense competitive pressures, volatile economic conditions, rising bankruptcies, and increasing levels of consumer and commercial debt, an organization's ability to effectively monitor and manage its credit risk can mean the difference between success and survival. The improvement of dynamic risk management systems is also an essential part of the new regulatory Capital Adequacy Proposal Basel II in which risk-sensitive capital requirements for credit portfolios and internal models of credit risk are advocated. The goal of the project is to develop novel stochastic methods for managing of credit risk and to bring theoretical innovations developed within the project to practical implementations. Read moreRead less
Asynchronous Continuous Time Conditioning. Methodology for reasoning about Asynchronous Temporal Conditional Events (ATCE) obtains, complete with logical calculus for causal relations, reasoning about continuous time belief change, and markov chain algorithms calculating joint distributions of ATCE's.
Current techniques, including bayesian nets, are oblivious to temporal aspects; within our model they can be enhanced to recognize dynamic time changes. Ours is the first such unified model and ....Asynchronous Continuous Time Conditioning. Methodology for reasoning about Asynchronous Temporal Conditional Events (ATCE) obtains, complete with logical calculus for causal relations, reasoning about continuous time belief change, and markov chain algorithms calculating joint distributions of ATCE's.
Current techniques, including bayesian nets, are oblivious to temporal aspects; within our model they can be enhanced to recognize dynamic time changes. Ours is the first such unified model and first to link conditional objects with continuous time constraints.
Need for structures we propose arises in diagnostic reasoning, bayesian learning, temporal databases, and time-dependent data mining. Several commercial products (like Microsoft Office Assistant)could apply them forthwith.Read moreRead less
Novel time-frequency techniques for analysing and modeling non-stationary physical and engineering data. This project addresses an issue of fundamental importance in science and technology, where non-stationary data (which have time-varying statistics) are ubiquitous. Therefore, the development of time-frequency tools to model and analyse non-stationary data has great potential for impact in a wide range of areas reaching from seismic data analysis to biomedical signal processing to sonar and ra ....Novel time-frequency techniques for analysing and modeling non-stationary physical and engineering data. This project addresses an issue of fundamental importance in science and technology, where non-stationary data (which have time-varying statistics) are ubiquitous. Therefore, the development of time-frequency tools to model and analyse non-stationary data has great potential for impact in a wide range of areas reaching from seismic data analysis to biomedical signal processing to sonar and radar. Employing techniques to be developed in this proposal, we expect to be able to classify and detect features of non-stationary data that were unrecognisable using hitherto known methods.Read moreRead less
CO2 sequestration in deformable, chemically interactive, double porosity media. Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) level is emerging as one of the most serious issues affecting humanity. Models, theories and relationships derived from this research will have a direct and immediate impact on the design, construction, maintenance, management and risk assessment of sequestration systems in Australia and overseas, and will assist Australia and Australian community to meet its target reducti ....CO2 sequestration in deformable, chemically interactive, double porosity media. Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) level is emerging as one of the most serious issues affecting humanity. Models, theories and relationships derived from this research will have a direct and immediate impact on the design, construction, maintenance, management and risk assessment of sequestration systems in Australia and overseas, and will assist Australia and Australian community to meet its target reductions in CO2 emission. The work will also benefit Australia and the Australian research community through the development of a new expertise in Australia, which will have a significant potential for export to other countries.Read moreRead less
Efficient and Robust Prediction at Ungauged Catchments. Hydrological models are an integral part of virtually all environmental models formulated at the catchment scale. They are used in the planning, design and operation of water infrastructure. Despite the importance of these models limited rainfall and streamflow gauging forces these models to be routinely applied at ungauged locations where predictive power is poorly understood and almost always unsatisfactory. This project will directly ben ....Efficient and Robust Prediction at Ungauged Catchments. Hydrological models are an integral part of virtually all environmental models formulated at the catchment scale. They are used in the planning, design and operation of water infrastructure. Despite the importance of these models limited rainfall and streamflow gauging forces these models to be routinely applied at ungauged locations where predictive power is poorly understood and almost always unsatisfactory. This project will directly benefit model users by providing (a) robust framework for quantifying uncertainty and (b) improved predictions at ungauged basins. This will provide more realistic guidance for design engineers and policy makers and be of significant benefit to a large range of Australian water users.Read moreRead less
Mass transport in high entropy alloys. This project aims to understand mass transport in high entropy alloys. Alloys of 5 to 13 components have technologically attractive mechanical properties. A knowledge of mass transport could control their stabilities and optimise their properties. This project will develop an atomistic theory and a phenomenological method for rapidly performing experiments, and experiment on two key high entropy alloys. The outcome of this research will be an in-depth under ....Mass transport in high entropy alloys. This project aims to understand mass transport in high entropy alloys. Alloys of 5 to 13 components have technologically attractive mechanical properties. A knowledge of mass transport could control their stabilities and optimise their properties. This project will develop an atomistic theory and a phenomenological method for rapidly performing experiments, and experiment on two key high entropy alloys. The outcome of this research will be an in-depth understanding of mass transport that is expected to fast-track these alloys to commercial uptake.Read moreRead less
Integrity analysis of advanced composites after lightning strike. Lightning strike presents a great threat to various engineered structures made of fibre-reinforced polymer composites. This project aims to develop fundamentals for a framework of integrity analysis for such composites after lightning strike. This involves mechanistic models for coupled electrical-thermal-mechanical analysis and experimental characterisation, addressing intensive resistant-heat generation, pyrolysis of matrices an ....Integrity analysis of advanced composites after lightning strike. Lightning strike presents a great threat to various engineered structures made of fibre-reinforced polymer composites. This project aims to develop fundamentals for a framework of integrity analysis for such composites after lightning strike. This involves mechanistic models for coupled electrical-thermal-mechanical analysis and experimental characterisation, addressing intensive resistant-heat generation, pyrolysis of matrices and ablation of fibres, pore gas explosion, shock stresses and prediction of residual strength. The expected outcomes of the project are critical for the development of procedures for enhanced structural integrity assessment, driving down maintenance costs and extending the life-span of engineered composite structures.Read moreRead less
Investigation of Delay Propagation in Airline Schedules and the Impact on Network Reliability. This project will investigate the phenomenon of delay propagation in airline schedules and potential ways to mitigate the impact on network reliability. This project will improve our understanding of the complex behaviour of airline schedule systems in dealing with delay propagation and significantly enhance airlines' ability of controlling schedule delays. Australian airlines and passengers will benef ....Investigation of Delay Propagation in Airline Schedules and the Impact on Network Reliability. This project will investigate the phenomenon of delay propagation in airline schedules and potential ways to mitigate the impact on network reliability. This project will improve our understanding of the complex behaviour of airline schedule systems in dealing with delay propagation and significantly enhance airlines' ability of controlling schedule delays. Australian airlines and passengers will benefit from this project by improving schedule reliability, reducing schedule delays and delay costs, which are estimated at a hundred million dollars per year. This saving will also benefit passengers through lower fares. Developed scheduling methodologies are applicable to all other airlines.Read moreRead less