Spatial Simulation Modelling Of Containment Strategies For Pandemic Influenza
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$99,927.00
Summary
This research will develop a spatial simulation model to predict the spread of pandemic influenza within Australia. The resulting software program will be readily usable by disease managers, both during and prior to an outbreak, to predict the effect of various containment measures on the size, rate and location of disease spread, through a city, state or the nation. Deployed in _real time� after an outbreak has started in Australia, it will be used to predict infection spread and the containmen ....This research will develop a spatial simulation model to predict the spread of pandemic influenza within Australia. The resulting software program will be readily usable by disease managers, both during and prior to an outbreak, to predict the effect of various containment measures on the size, rate and location of disease spread, through a city, state or the nation. Deployed in _real time� after an outbreak has started in Australia, it will be used to predict infection spread and the containment effect of a range of interventions. The model would use data obtained during initial stages of the outbreak to refine the model, so allowing accuracy in daily spread prediction; similar use of spatial models occurred during the 2001 Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreak in the UK. In a pre-pandemic period the simulation model will be available to predict the containment effect of a range of response measures, such as travel restrictions, workplace and school closures, vaccination and antiviral usage. Specifically, this project will apply the simulation model to determine optimal use of limited resources such as the _when and where� targeting of antiviral drugs and initial supplies of vaccine.Read moreRead less
Assessment Of Interventions For Controlling Pandemic Influenza And Determining Data Needs To Inform These Assessments
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$183,040.00
Summary
The aim of this study is to help us prepare for a pandemic of influenza by comparing how effective the various available control strategies are at reducing transmission of the disease. The available control interventions include: reducing the number of close contacts we make with others, isolating cases after they are diagnosed, closing schools, quarantining households, quarantining individuals who are known to have been exposed to a case, and using antiviral drugs treat and protect people at ri ....The aim of this study is to help us prepare for a pandemic of influenza by comparing how effective the various available control strategies are at reducing transmission of the disease. The available control interventions include: reducing the number of close contacts we make with others, isolating cases after they are diagnosed, closing schools, quarantining households, quarantining individuals who are known to have been exposed to a case, and using antiviral drugs treat and protect people at risk of being infected. We will compare these control measures by taking due account of the ability and resources available for these interventions, and with regard to the need to maintain essential services. The comparisons will be made using mathematical models that describe the transmission of the infection. All available data and advice from experts will be used to ensure that realistic models are used for the comparisons. We will also use the models to determine the best use of the limited antiviral drugs available, until a vaccine becomes available. We will consider how the control strategy should be changed if a strain develops that is resistant to the antiviral drugs. In addition, we will determine what data need to be collected during the early stages of a pandemic to help us to determine the best use of the antiviral drugs, the best use of a new vaccine and to check on the development of resistance to the antiviral drugs.Read moreRead less
Modelling The Biology And Transmission Of Influenza Virus - Learning From 1918-19 And Other Outbreaks
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$114,222.00
Summary
In preparing for a future pandemic of influenza, it is important to learn as much as possible from what happened in the past, particularly from the devastating pandemic of 1918-19. This project will collate detailed information about the spread of influenza in past outbreaks and create a publicly accessible data-base. Mathematical methods will be used to analyse historic and contemporary data, so as to provide better understanding of the spread of influenza, and of the likely effects of social a ....In preparing for a future pandemic of influenza, it is important to learn as much as possible from what happened in the past, particularly from the devastating pandemic of 1918-19. This project will collate detailed information about the spread of influenza in past outbreaks and create a publicly accessible data-base. Mathematical methods will be used to analyse historic and contemporary data, so as to provide better understanding of the spread of influenza, and of the likely effects of social and medical measures for its control. An important theme of the project is to consolidate our knowledge about how past exposure to non-pandemic influenza could provide short-lived protection against any new pandemic, and to explore the implications of this for prevention today. Another theme is to explore the severity of influenza during pandemics, and to identify social and medical factors that might reduce the dose of virus transmitted, or otherwise reduce the severity of infection. The insights from the modeling will also help to identify gaps in knowledge and understanding about the basic biology of influenza, stimulate new research to fill those gaps, and thus offer the prospect of more effective vaccines and treatments for the future control of influenza.Read moreRead less
Modelling The Economics Of The Australian Health Care System For Policy Analysis
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$3,500,000.00
Summary
The program will build a suite of economic models capable of providing timely relevant analysis of almost any major health policy option or issue, providing expertise in government and academia to use the kind of sophisticated quantitative tools of analysis common in sectors of the economy of an equivalent size to health. Through a PhD and postdoctoral program, it will increase capacity in quantitative health economics in Australia to answer key questions in health services, health promotion and ....The program will build a suite of economic models capable of providing timely relevant analysis of almost any major health policy option or issue, providing expertise in government and academia to use the kind of sophisticated quantitative tools of analysis common in sectors of the economy of an equivalent size to health. Through a PhD and postdoctoral program, it will increase capacity in quantitative health economics in Australia to answer key questions in health services, health promotion and illness prevention, developed with partners in government, clinicians and industry.Read moreRead less