Improving Outcomes And Cost Of Systemic Sclerosis Related Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$645,205.00
Summary
My research program aims to improve the outcomes for those living with systemic sclerosis related pulmonary arterial hypertension (SSc-PAH) and reduce its associated societal burden through the evaluation and implementation of a novel PAH screening algorithm; the use of risk stratification tools in therapeutic decisions; and the development of a more streamlined management approach. My research will initiate collaboration across multiple medical disciplines and sites nationally.
The Impact Of The Environment And Pollution On Cognitive Health (EPOCH): Building The Knowledge Base Through International Collaboration
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$681,240.00
Summary
Neighbourhood environments can impact on the health of their residents. However, not much is known about their effects on cognitive decline in late life. This project will link environmental data to existing studies on ageing to examine how the neighbourhood built environment (e.g., access to services), natural environment, air pollution and noise may impact on cognitive decline and the risk of dementia in older adults and whether these effects differ in the United Kingdom and Australia.
Built Environments And Child Health In WalEs And AuStralia (BEACHES)
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$797,256.00
Summary
A better understanding of how the built environment drives obesity in children will inform evidence-based planning policy and practice strategies to prevent the rise in non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in future generations. We will bring together five large UK and Australian cohort studies to understand how complex and interacting built environment factors influence modifiable risk factors (physical inactivity, sedentary time, unhealthy diet) for NCD’s across childhood.
The Role Of Preconception And Perinatal Substance Use And Misuse In Childhood Social, Emotional And Behavioural Problems
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$1,562,250.00
Summary
This project will use perinatal and preconception data from three long-running Australian studies that have tracked the health and wellbeing of several thousand participants prior to parenthood. The aim is to understand how parental histories of substance use, and patterns of use during pregnancy, and in early life, shape offspring social, emotional and behavioural outcomes across childhood. Results will inform new approaches to preventing substance-related harms within and across generations.
China’s changing internal migration: patterns, causes, policy implications. China’s massive internal migration is no longer simply rural–urban and circular but highly diversified. The project aims to unravel that transition: its patterns, causes, and effects. Using 2020 census data and major longitudinal datasets, a China variant of Zelinsky’s classic mobility transition theory will be developed and deployed to identify underlying mechanisms. Among expected outcomes are powerful methods for asse ....China’s changing internal migration: patterns, causes, policy implications. China’s massive internal migration is no longer simply rural–urban and circular but highly diversified. The project aims to unravel that transition: its patterns, causes, and effects. Using 2020 census data and major longitudinal datasets, a China variant of Zelinsky’s classic mobility transition theory will be developed and deployed to identify underlying mechanisms. Among expected outcomes are powerful methods for assessing spatio-temporal migration patterns and causes, applicable to many economies especially in the Asia–Pacific. Benefits should include a new evidence base for migration and related urban–rural policy in China; and for Australia, policy inputs to improve prosperity through better relations with our biggest trading partner.Read moreRead less
Snapper Science Program: Theme 1 - Biology And Ecology
Funder
Fisheries Research and Development Corporation
Funding Amount
$1,982,523.00
Summary
A comprehensive understanding of the general biology and ecology of any fishery species is fundamental to determine its response to exploitation and inform appropriate fishery management. Despite the significant body of research into the biology of Snapper, there remain considerable knowledge gaps regarding the underlying factors that drive interannual variation in juvenile recruitment and the demographic processes that maintain populations. Furthermore, there is uncertainty in how these process ....A comprehensive understanding of the general biology and ecology of any fishery species is fundamental to determine its response to exploitation and inform appropriate fishery management. Despite the significant body of research into the biology of Snapper, there remain considerable knowledge gaps regarding the underlying factors that drive interannual variation in juvenile recruitment and the demographic processes that maintain populations. Furthermore, there is uncertainty in how these processes will be influenced by changing environmental conditions associated with climate change. As such, understanding drivers of recruitment variability was identified as one of the highest research priorities for Snapper at the most recent National Workshop (FRDC Project No. 2019-085; Cartwright et al. 2021). Given the strong relationship between episodic recruitment and fishery production described above for the SG/WCS and GSVS, this recommendation was also strongly endorsed by fishery researchers, managers, and industry stakeholders in SA (Drew et al. 2022).
This research proposal has been developed to address four research priorities: • To understand the biological and environmental factors that affect recruitment of Snapper in SA and evaluate the potential influence of climate change. • Provide a contemporary understanding of stock structure for Snapper on the west coast of Eyre Peninsula to inform the appropriate spatial scale for fishery management. • Develop a contemporary series of biological parameters for each stock of Snapper in SA to be used as inputs in the stock assessment model. • Evaluate changes in the physical environment that may affect Snapper recruitment.
Consequently, Research Theme 1 – Biology and Ecology involves four projects: 1.1 Investigating recruitment variability and evaluating the potential effects of climate change for Snapper in South Australia 1.2 Contemporary demographic processes and stock structure for Snapper on the west coast of Eyre Peninsula 1.3 Review of biological parameters for Snapper in South Australia 1.4 Benthic habitat survey for Gulf St Vincent.
1.1 Investigating recruitment variability and evaluating the potential effects of climate change for Snapper in South Australia The population dynamics and fishery productivity for Snapper in SA are fundamentally driven by highly variable interannual recruitment, i.e., the number of age 0+ juveniles that enter the population each year (Fowler et al. 2017, Fowler and Jennings 2003). As such, a relative index of annual age 0+ juvenile abundance would be a powerful, fishery-independent tool to predict future trends in fishable biomass. To address this need, a recent project was undertaken to identify the most appropriate sampling methodology for age 0+ Snapper in SA’s gulfs and to develop a pre-recruit index (FRDC Project No. 2019-046). The first component of the present study involves the continuation of annual surveys for age 0+ Snapper for each stock to monitor trends in juvenile recruitment. The surveys will be repeated annually at the recognised nursery areas for each stock, i.e., northern Spencer Gulf (NSG) for the SG/WCS and northern Gulf St Vincent (NGSV) for the GSVS (Fowler et al. 2017). In addition, age 1+ juvenile Snapper will be sampled from annual fishery-independent surveys for the Spencer Gulf and Gulf St Vincent prawn fisheries, which will provide further information to determine relative year class strength.
The second component of the study involves investigating the relationships between environmental parameters and recruitment. The datasets for juvenile abundance will be considered with annual population age structures to develop a time series of recruitment for the two stocks (i.e., late 1960s to 2020s). Long-term time series of environmental parameters (e.g., temperature, salinity, productivity, wind stress) will be developed and compared to the time series of recruitment for each stock. In conjunction with the pre-recruit index, understanding the environmental influences that drive recruitment variability would provide even greater predictive capability to forecast trends in recruitment and fishable biomass, particularly under changing environmental conditions associated with climate change.
The third component of the study will investigate the potential effects of environmental change for Snapper in SA. Using the environmental datasets previously developed, a high-resolution oceanographic model for SA will be hindcast to determine the intensity of local environmental change and identify potential climate ‘hot spots’. The model will then be forecast with different climate change scenarios to predict changes in ocean conditions over the next 5, 10, and 50 years. Based on the physiological tolerance ranges for Snapper spawning and larval development, these predictions will be used to evaluate potential shifts in the availability of suitable environmental conditions for Snapper in SA. Such responses will be considered in terms of potential implications for future trends in recruitment and fishable biomass.
1.2 Contemporary demographic processes and stock structure for Snapper on the west coast of Eyre Peninsula There are three recognised stocks of Snapper in SA waters: the SG/WCS, the GSVS, and the Western Victoria Stock (WVS) (Fowler 2016, Fowler et al. 2017). The population of Snapper on the West Coast of Eyre Peninsula (WC) is a regional component of the SG/WCS. It is hypothesised that in most years, the WC population is replenished by local demographic processes that maintain the population at a relatively low level. However, episodically in years of exceptionally strong recruitment in northern Spencer Gulf (i.e., 1991, 1997, and 1999), the WC population is replenished through the density dependent emigration of fish of a few years of age that disperse from northern Spencer Gulf, through southern Spencer Gulf and to the WC. These fish then remain on the WC for the remainder of their lives.
As a consequence of the prolonged period of poor recruitment in northern Spencer Gulf since 1999 and the subsequent depletion of the population in Spencer Gulf, it is unlikely that this density dependent movement from Spencer Gulf to the WC has occurred to a major extent for a number of years or will occur until the Spencer Gulf population has recovered. Furthermore, age structures for the WC developed in 2020 and 2021 showed that only a very small number of fish from the strong 1997- and 1999-year classes in northern Spencer Gulf remained in the population, and there were several other year classes in the age structures for the WC that were not present in northern Spencer Gulf (Drew et al. 2022). Consequently, there is a need to understand the relative contributions of local population processes and emigration from northern Spencer Gulf to the WC population. This is particularly important following the regionalisation of the fishery through the Marine Scalefish Fishery (MSF) Reform (Smart et al. 2022).
This study will investigate the contemporary demographic processes that maintain the population of Snapper on the WC through the regional comparison of population age structures, elemental chemistry of otoliths, and population genomics. The findings will provide insight into the relative contributions of local recruitment and emigration to the WC population, that will be compared to the existing conceptual model of stock structure for Snapper in SA (Fowler 2016, Fowler et al. 2017). The proposed study will build on several previous projects that have investigated the stock structure of Snapper in SA (i.e., FRDC Project No. 2002-001, FRDC Project No. 2012-020, ARC Linkage Project No. LP180100756).
1.3 Review of biological parameters for Snapper in South Australia The biology of Snapper in SA has been studied over the past 40 years, with particular focus on northern Spencer Gulf (e.g., Jones 1981, 1987, McGlennon 2003). Since 2000, a weekly market sampling program has been undertaken by SARDI researchers that has provided biological data for Snapper caught by commercial fishers across SA. The sampling program has been augmented with periodic trips to regional areas, research cruises, and targeted research projects. Since the closure of the SG/WCS and GSVS in November 2019, biological samples from the two stocks have been accessed through a targeted sampling program which involved contracting commercial fishers. The data collected through these projects and programs is maintained in a MS Access database which currently contains biological information (i.e., capture date, location, length, weight, sex, reproductive stage, and age) for >27,000 Snapper and length information for >75,000 individuals.
This study will investigate potential changes in the biological characteristics of Snapper throughout SA over the past 40 years in response to temporal changes in environmental conditions and stock abundance. This will involve spatial and temporal comparisons of length, age, growth rate, and length at maturity for Snapper from each region of SA. The study will also consider various approaches to estimate natural mortality. A key output of the study is a summary of contemporary biological parameters for each stock of Snapper in SA that will be incorporated into the stock assessment model (‘SnapEst’).
1.4 Benthic habitat survey for Gulf St Vincent Snapper utilise a diversity of different benthic habitats throughout its life history, ranging from soft sediments that are favoured by recently settled juveniles to high relief structures that act as aggregation sites for spawning adults. As a result of the significant interannual variation in recruitment observed for Snapper in SA and the subsequent development of a pre-recruit index, there is particular interest in the spatial distribution and relative abundance of benthic habitats that act as nursery areas for age 0+ juvenile Snapper. In order for the pre-recruit index to provide reliable estimates of annual recruitment, it is essential that the key areas which support 0+ Snapper are sampled consistently each year.
In the recent project to develop a pre-recruit index (i.e., FRDC 2019-046), sampling for 0+ juvenile Snapper was targeted at the hypothesised nursery areas for each stock, i.e., northern Spencer Gulf (NSG) for the SG/WCS and northern Gulf St Vincent (NGSV) for the GSVS (Fowler et al. 2017). For NSG, the sampling design was informed by the results of annual surveys in the region from 2000 to 2010, which identified a strong relationship between the spatial distribution and abundance of 0+ Snapper and localised areas of soft, silty benthic substrate (Fowler and Jennings 2003, Fowler et al. 2010). There were no previous surveys for 0+ Snapper in NGSV, and therefore sampling locations were determined by the presence of suitable benthic substrate from existing habitat studies (Shepherd and Sprigg 1976, Tanner 2002). However, from 2021 to 2023, the catches of age 0+ Snapper in NGSV were very low in each annual survey and it cannot be determined if this reflected poor juvenile recruitment in these years, or if key nursery areas were not adequately sampled.
The aim of this study is to quantify the spatial distribution and relative abundance of benthic habitats in GSV, with particular emphasis on localised areas of soft substrate that may support age 0+ juvenile Snapper. The study will use towed underwater video and particle size analysis of sediment samples to quantify habitat types at ~150 sites throughout GSV following the methods recently applied in Spencer Gulf (FRDC 2020-002; Grammer et al. in prep.). The spatial distribution and relative abundance of benthic habitat types identified in this study will be compared to previous surveys in 1964-69 (Shepherd and Sprigg 1976) and 2000-01 (FRDC Project No. 1998-208; Tanner 2002) to assess changes in benthic habitats in GSV over the past 50 years, and how such changes may relate to trends in recruitment and stock abundance for Snapper over this time.
Objectives: 1. Quantify the abundance of age 0+ Snapper in northern Spencer Gulf and Gulf St Vincent to provide relative estimates of recruitment for 2024, 2025, and 2026. Examine the otoliths of these fish to improve the understanding of early life history processes. 2. Evaluate the relationships between environmental parameters and recruitment variability for Snapper in South Australia and evaluate the potential effects of environmental change on spawning and recruitment. 3. Determine the contemporary demographic processes that maintain Snapper populations on the west coast of Eyre Peninsula, i.e., local recruitment vs. emigration from adjacent regional populations, and to use this information to assess stock structure. 4. Assess possible changes in key biological parameters of Snapper for each stock in South Australia in response to temporal changes in environmental conditions and stock abundance. 5. Quantify the spatial distribution and relative abundance of benthic habitats utilised by juvenile Snapper in Gulf St Vincent and assess potential changes over the past 50 years. Read moreRead less
Asian Migration in the 21st Century: An Integrated Account . Migration is a defining issue of the 21st Century. Despite its significance, migration is poorly understood because different types of movement are conceptualised, measured and studied separately. This project aims to develop an integrated understanding of multiple forms of population movement in Asia incorporating both internal and international migration and temporary and permanent moves. It will establish the intensity, spatial patt ....Asian Migration in the 21st Century: An Integrated Account . Migration is a defining issue of the 21st Century. Despite its significance, migration is poorly understood because different types of movement are conceptualised, measured and studied separately. This project aims to develop an integrated understanding of multiple forms of population movement in Asia incorporating both internal and international migration and temporary and permanent moves. It will establish the intensity, spatial patterns and interaction between the different forms of migration for countries in Asia, and its impacts at origins and at destinations. The results are expected to provide significant benefits including a strong evidence base for the formulation of national and international migration policy in the 21st Century.Read moreRead less
Comparative Effectiveness Of Breast Tomosynthesis And Mammography In Real-world Population Screening: Evidence To Underpin And Improve Breast Cancer Screening
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$1,851,430.00
Summary
This research addresses key evidence gaps in breast cancer screening by investigating tomosynthesis (3D mammography) versus standard 2D mammography screening to establish the effectiveness of tomosynthesis in Australia and internationally, including impact on cancers not detected at screening that progress clinically. Large-scale studies will be done in real world screening services including a prospective comparative study planned collaboratively with BreastScreen to guide screening policy.
Can Spatial Fishery-dependent Data Be Used To Determine Abalone Stock Status In A Spatially Structured Fishery?
Funder
Fisheries Research and Development Corporation
Funding Amount
$562,128.00
Summary
With the advent of the Status of Australian Fish Stocks (SAFS) process, there is now a requirement to provide a stock ‘status’ determination in addition to the annual TACC determination. The ‘status’ reflects changes in the overall biomass, the fishing mortality, or in their proxies. This has led to disagreements among researchers, managers and industry, largely due to uncertainty around how best to derive a meaningful overall stock status indicator to meet the requirements of the SAFS reporting ....With the advent of the Status of Australian Fish Stocks (SAFS) process, there is now a requirement to provide a stock ‘status’ determination in addition to the annual TACC determination. The ‘status’ reflects changes in the overall biomass, the fishing mortality, or in their proxies. This has led to disagreements among researchers, managers and industry, largely due to uncertainty around how best to derive a meaningful overall stock status indicator to meet the requirements of the SAFS reporting process. These higher-level reporting processes are an important demonstration of sustainable management of Australian fisheries, but only if stock status determinations are accurate and defensible.
Australian abalone fisheries primarily use harvest control rules based around CPUE (Kg/Hr) to set TACC. However, with abalone, stable catch-rates may not indicate stable biomass and/or stable density. Catch-rates are frequently criticised because the effort needed to take a quantity of catch may be influenced by density but also by density independent factors such as conditions at the time of fishing, experience, and the ability of fishers to adjust their fishing strategy to maintain catch rates (diver behaviour driven hyper-stability). While there are many issues with the assumption that CPUE is a reliable proxy for abundance, it is assumed to be so despite the absence of robust data to validate use of CPUE in this way. In some jurisdictions CPUE is supplemented by sparse fishery-dependent size and density data. There is an urgent need to review common assumptions, methods and interpretations of CPUE as a primary indicator, and to determine whether inclusion of spatial fishery data could provide a ‘global’ indicator of stock status for abalone fisheries.
Objectives: 1. Characterise the statistical properties, coherence, interpretability and assumptions of spatial and classic indicators of fishery performance 2. Develop methods for inclusion of fine-scale spatial data in CPUE standardisations 3. Identify methods for detecting hyper-stability in CPUE 4. Determine feasibility of spatial data based stock status determination in spatially structured fisheries Read moreRead less
Laying The Foundation For Mulloway Stock Recovery Through Filling Critical Knowledge Gaps And Modelling.
Funder
Fisheries Research and Development Corporation
Funding Amount
$1,299,348.50
Summary
Critical knowledge gaps identified by the cross-sectoral harvest strategy working group are encapsulated within three priority areas for mulloway in NSW:
1) Information on the spatial extent of population structure
Whilst mulloway in NSW have been shown to be part of a single genetic stock along the east coast (Barnes et al. 2015), which is managed at the jurisdictional level (Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria – Earl et al. 2021), the overall general small scales of movemen ....Critical knowledge gaps identified by the cross-sectoral harvest strategy working group are encapsulated within three priority areas for mulloway in NSW:
1) Information on the spatial extent of population structure
Whilst mulloway in NSW have been shown to be part of a single genetic stock along the east coast (Barnes et al. 2015), which is managed at the jurisdictional level (Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria – Earl et al. 2021), the overall general small scales of movement and connectivity (Hughes et al. 2022), and spatial variation in otolith chemistry (Russell et al. 2021), suggest the potential for fine-scale population structuring within the broader stock. Such population structuring may occur over various time scales (e.g. evolutionary, generational or lifetime) relevant to management of the species. Identifying the spatial extent of population structure is therefore critical to inform the potential utility of spatially structured monitoring, assessment, and management of the species in NSW, including the potential need for cross-jurisdictional collaboration with Queensland and Victoria.
2) Refined and updated population life-history parameters
As described above, evidence indicates the potential for fine-scale within-generation population structure of mulloway within NSW, as has been demonstrated elsewhere in Australia (Ferguson et al. 2011). For mulloway in NSW, sub-populations may be subject to variation in environmental variables (e.g. habitat, water temperature, salinity), particularly those that vary with latitude. Such population structure may therefore manifest itself in spatial variability in demographic characteristics, such as growth, size and age composition, and mortality that affect stock productivity and subsequent resilience to exploitation. Information on mulloway reproductive biology was collected in the early 2000s and established size- and age-at-maturity (Silberschneider & Gray 2005), however information on the spatial and temporal extent of spawning is not clearly defined and the body-size fecundity relationship for mulloway in NSW is not well known. An updated examination of spatial variation in size and age structures, growth, mortality and reproductive biology are therefore urgently required to underpin length- and age-based components of future stock assessments for mulloway in NSW.
3) Assessment of gear selectivity and discard/release mortality for the main fishing methods.
Despite the majority of the commercial mulloway catch (~60%) being taken using gillnets (termed ’mesh nets’) in NSW, to date there has been very little research into selectivity, bycatch, discarding and post-release mortality of mulloway caught in this gear. Research on discard (‘release’) mortality from recreational fishing has shown that the two key predictors of mortality are deep-hooking (Butcher et al. 2007) and barotrauma (Butcher et al. 2013, Hughes et al. 2019), however, most of this work was restricted to small mulloway (< 45 cm TL) and no data are available on the fate of larger angled and released conspecifics. Research into the selectivity, rates of discarding and unaccounted fishing mortality of mulloway caught in the main gears and sectors are therefore urgently required (e.g. by defining selectivity functions and rates of discarding and post-release mortality for use in future stock assessment models).
Other knowledge gaps fall under priority areas already being addressed by existing NSW DPI-Fisheries initiatives (e.g. improved fishery data from all sectors, development of fishery-independent survey methods and updated comprehensive ERA; Figure 1).
Successfully fulfilling all knowledge gaps will generate data that will underpin a fourth priority area:
4) Development of a dynamic population model.
This is the essential tool that will be developed to reduce uncertainty in the species stock assessment, service the requirements of the harvest strategy to rebuild the stock, and guide future management to maintain the stock at a level that improves access to, and use of, the resource by all sectors. Any model(s) must also support an expandable assessment approach, capable of determining stock status with reasonable confidence from limited data available during the stock rebuilding phase, but with the ability to integrate additional data sources as they become available (once the rebuilding phase is complete) and maintaining continuity with previous assessments. The role of climatic/environmental drivers on mulloway population dynamics will also be examined within the integrated assessment model(s) that will be developed.
Without the improved knowledge encapsulated in the above priority areas for research, any reasonable assessment of the status of the resource, estimation of appropriate harvest levels, harvest strategy development, and implementation of appropriate management to rebuild the resource and maintain sustainability in future, will not be possible. This will in turn directly impact the magnitude, profitability, and social outcomes derived from the resource. Funding from the FRDC is therefore needed to address these key identified knowledge gaps, representing an urgent research priority for all harvesting sectors of the resource in NSW. Objectives: 1. 1. Resolve the fine scale population structure for mulloway in south-eastern Australia (southern Queensland, New South Wales and eastern Victoria). 2. 2. Refine and update population life-history parameters (demographic and reproductive information) from across the spatial extent of the stock. 3. 3. Assess selectivity and discard/release mortality for the main gears and sectors (gillnets and angling), and develop approaches to minimise mortality. 4. 4. Integrate information generated from objectives 1–3 and data collected by existing monitoring programs, and develop a dynamic population model(s) to support future stock rebuilding strategies for the NSW mulloway population. Read moreRead less