Risky Futures: Toward a Computational Process Model of Risky Inter-Temporal Choice. A lot is known about people’s preferences. People like their rewards now. Most would prefer $10 today than $20 in one month. Risk is also unattractive; a certain $10 is more attractive than a 50 per cent chance of receiving $25. Surprisingly, much less is known about the interaction between delay and risk. That is, relatively little is known about whether people prefer $10 now, or a 50 per cent chance of $50 in ....Risky Futures: Toward a Computational Process Model of Risky Inter-Temporal Choice. A lot is known about people’s preferences. People like their rewards now. Most would prefer $10 today than $20 in one month. Risk is also unattractive; a certain $10 is more attractive than a 50 per cent chance of receiving $25. Surprisingly, much less is known about the interaction between delay and risk. That is, relatively little is known about whether people prefer $10 now, or a 50 per cent chance of $50 in one month. This project will use a combination of experiments and cognitive modelling to examine all three types of choice. The outcome will be a novel computational model that will elucidate the complex interaction between delay and risk, thereby answering an enduring question in the literature: are risk and delay psychologically equivalent?Read moreRead less
Learning and choosing in a complex world. How do people make choices in a complex world? Making good choices requires expertise, but people must often forego rewards in order to acquire this knowledge. This is the essence of an "explore-exploit dilemma": to maximise rewards across a long time frame, people must take the time to explore and learn now. Empirically, this project aims to unify much of the existing psychological literature and extend it to cover richer, more complex problems. Theoret ....Learning and choosing in a complex world. How do people make choices in a complex world? Making good choices requires expertise, but people must often forego rewards in order to acquire this knowledge. This is the essence of an "explore-exploit dilemma": to maximise rewards across a long time frame, people must take the time to explore and learn now. Empirically, this project aims to unify much of the existing psychological literature and extend it to cover richer, more complex problems. Theoretically, the project aims to use tools from machine learning to compare human decision making to optimal planning models.Read moreRead less
A new approach to understanding decision making. Mathematical theories of decision-making have helped us understand many aspects of psychology (such as ageing, gambling, psychological disorders and consumer decisions). This project will extend these theories to a new level of finer-grained analysis, opening up new possibilities for understanding cognition and behaviour.
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE140101181
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$384,183.00
Summary
How Do Our Past Decisions Affect Our Present Decisions? – An Innovative Model. Decisions under time pressure made in the past have a tendency to affect our current decisions. This phenomenon is often termed ‘sequential effects’. Typically, sequential effects are explained by positing the existence of a psychological mechanism that is specifically aimed at resolving conflicting information. The aim of this project is to develop a computational model that produces sequential effects naturally. Inn ....How Do Our Past Decisions Affect Our Present Decisions? – An Innovative Model. Decisions under time pressure made in the past have a tendency to affect our current decisions. This phenomenon is often termed ‘sequential effects’. Typically, sequential effects are explained by positing the existence of a psychological mechanism that is specifically aimed at resolving conflicting information. The aim of this project is to develop a computational model that produces sequential effects naturally. Innovatively, this model would remove the need for an explicit conflict monitoring mechanism. This project is significant because it progresses our understanding of how humans deal with conflict. The expected outcome is a comprehensive, quantitative account of sequential effects in human decision making.Read moreRead less
How strong inference has failed psychology, and an updated approach. There are so many quantitative theories of cognition that it can be difficult to see the forest for the trees. This project will contend that this is caused by suboptimal model selection. Comprehensive data sets and modern statistical techniques will be used to evaluate competing accounts in five paradigms, thinning the trees to reveal the forest.
The value of time during decisions. This project aims to investigate how people value time during decision making. Using an innovative combination of carefully designed experiments and state-of-the-art mathematical cognitive models, this project expects to generate new knowledge regarding how efficiently people allocate time when making decisions, the factors that allow people to perform optimally and those that lead to suboptimal performance. The anticipated outcome of the project is a new fram ....The value of time during decisions. This project aims to investigate how people value time during decision making. Using an innovative combination of carefully designed experiments and state-of-the-art mathematical cognitive models, this project expects to generate new knowledge regarding how efficiently people allocate time when making decisions, the factors that allow people to perform optimally and those that lead to suboptimal performance. The anticipated outcome of the project is a new framework for understanding the optimality of human decision making. This outcome has the potential benefit of providing insight into decision mechanisms across a range of contexts, particularly ageing and models of applied decision making.Read moreRead less
The Psychology of Misinformation—Towards A Theory-driven Understanding. The project aims to develop a psychological theory of misinformation effects. Misinformation influences people’s memory, reasoning and decision-making even after corrections – it thus poses a significant challenge for science and society. Through the combination of systematic experimentation with theory-driven computational modelling, the project will strive to concurrently consider individual-level cognition and the impact ....The Psychology of Misinformation—Towards A Theory-driven Understanding. The project aims to develop a psychological theory of misinformation effects. Misinformation influences people’s memory, reasoning and decision-making even after corrections – it thus poses a significant challenge for science and society. Through the combination of systematic experimentation with theory-driven computational modelling, the project will strive to concurrently consider individual-level cognition and the impact of sociocultural context. It is anticipated that this novel integrative approach will substantially expand our understanding of misinformation effects, and that this theoretical progress will result in the formulation of specific communication strategies to reduce the impact of misinformation on society.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE130100129
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$374,943.00
Summary
A model based approach to investigating short-term memory: exploiting response time distributions. Working memory is one of the most fundamental and well studied aspects of human cognition. The project plans to develop and test a computational modelling framework into which fundamental theories of short-term memory can be placed. This unique approach will offer a deeper understanding of the underlying components of working memory.
Rapid decisions: from neuroscience to complex cognitions. A succession of rapid decisions supports our daily life - run or walk? Fish or steak? This project will integrate three different approaches to understanding these decisions, from neuroscience, mathematical psychology and experimental psychology. This research will provide insights about normal human functioning, and problems such as occur in healthy ageing.
The psychology of not wanting to know. This project aims to deliver insights into paradoxical decision-making behaviours of humans who pursue either useless information or deliberate ignorance. The project intends to shed new light on why these conflicting states of information preference exist by building on significant recent advances in understanding how reinforcement learning, anticipation and discounting combine to determine when people do and do not want to know. Intended benefits include ....The psychology of not wanting to know. This project aims to deliver insights into paradoxical decision-making behaviours of humans who pursue either useless information or deliberate ignorance. The project intends to shed new light on why these conflicting states of information preference exist by building on significant recent advances in understanding how reinforcement learning, anticipation and discounting combine to determine when people do and do not want to know. Intended benefits include maintaining and enhancing the excellent status of Australian psychological and cognitive science. The downstream benefits include elucidating the development of anxiety disorders and problem gambling.Read moreRead less