Economic growth and globalisation: identifying costs and benefits. Globalisation provides opportunities to stimulate economic development and growth, but it may also impose costs on national economies. This project will utilise economic theory and econometric analysis to identify the principal sources and the magnitude of such benefits and costs. It will focus on three areas: trade in consumer goods; trade in capital goods; and the importation of knowledge and technology. The results will in ....Economic growth and globalisation: identifying costs and benefits. Globalisation provides opportunities to stimulate economic development and growth, but it may also impose costs on national economies. This project will utilise economic theory and econometric analysis to identify the principal sources and the magnitude of such benefits and costs. It will focus on three areas: trade in consumer goods; trade in capital goods; and the importation of knowledge and technology. The results will inform national policy-making in the areas of trade policy, industry policy, education and R&D.Read moreRead less
Economic modelling for Australia and the USA: forecasts, policy analysis and comparative studies of technology and labour market adjustment. This project involves: a fundamental overhaul of MONASH, a widely used detailed dynamic model of the Australian economy; the creation of MONASH-USA for the United States; and several model-based Australia/US comparisons. MONASH's database and parameters will be updated, and its theoretical specification improved. MONASH-USA will be an advance over existing ....Economic modelling for Australia and the USA: forecasts, policy analysis and comparative studies of technology and labour market adjustment. This project involves: a fundamental overhaul of MONASH, a widely used detailed dynamic model of the Australian economy; the creation of MONASH-USA for the United States; and several model-based Australia/US comparisons. MONASH's database and parameters will be updated, and its theoretical specification improved. MONASH-USA will be an advance over existing US models and will generate policy results of interest both in the United States and Australia. MONASH-USA will have an excellent database and is likely to produce insights on parameter estimation. These will be applicable in Australia. Together, MONASH and MONASH-USA will facilitate comparative studies of technology and labour-market performance.Read moreRead less
Economic policy when interest rates are zero. This Project studies economic policy when interest rates are zero. Low interest rate environments constrain monetary policy because central banks cannot lower rates to raise demand. We exploit recent international experience with zero rates to understand why new policies have had mixed success. We argue different outcomes across countries arise because of different degrees of credibility and familiarity with new policy initiatives. We provide empiric ....Economic policy when interest rates are zero. This Project studies economic policy when interest rates are zero. Low interest rate environments constrain monetary policy because central banks cannot lower rates to raise demand. We exploit recent international experience with zero rates to understand why new policies have had mixed success. We argue different outcomes across countries arise because of different degrees of credibility and familiarity with new policy initiatives. We provide empirical support for this view and study the consequences of imperfectly credible policy. We characterize how monetary policy (conventional and unconventional) and fiscal policy can be used to greatest effect in low interest rate environments and quantify the welfare implications for Australia. Read moreRead less
Growth, Trade, and Economic Development in Asia. Future growth in Asia has strong implications for growth, relative wages, skill levels, human capital accumulation and trade in Australia. This project seeks to gain insight into whether the high economic growth rates experienced in Asia will continue into the future and whether low income Asian countries will take off in the future. This information will be used to simulate future demand for skills, relative wages, trade and the incentives to inv ....Growth, Trade, and Economic Development in Asia. Future growth in Asia has strong implications for growth, relative wages, skill levels, human capital accumulation and trade in Australia. This project seeks to gain insight into whether the high economic growth rates experienced in Asia will continue into the future and whether low income Asian countries will take off in the future. This information will be used to simulate future demand for skills, relative wages, trade and the incentives to invest in Australia and give insight into the effects of various policies in Australia on educational decision, skill composition, relative wages, trade and growth.Read moreRead less
Time-consistent macroeconomic policy in nonlinear models. Efforts to use fiscal policy for macro-stabilisation have led to elevated debt levels and possible default in many countries. This project examines the appropriate design of fiscal policy and its implications for debt over the business cycle.
Monetary and Fiscal Policy under Imperfect Knowledge. This project lays out an agenda exploring the consequences of imperfect knowledge for macroeconomic dynamics and stabilisation policy. Learning dynamics are central to understanding aggregate fluctuations in periods during which agents have limited information about their environment, as has been the case during and after the Global Financial Crisis. The agenda comprises two lines of inquiry. The first develops theoretical issues relating to ....Monetary and Fiscal Policy under Imperfect Knowledge. This project lays out an agenda exploring the consequences of imperfect knowledge for macroeconomic dynamics and stabilisation policy. Learning dynamics are central to understanding aggregate fluctuations in periods during which agents have limited information about their environment, as has been the case during and after the Global Financial Crisis. The agenda comprises two lines of inquiry. The first develops theoretical issues relating to the design and implementation of monetary and fiscal policy under imperfect knowledge. The second adduces empirical evidence on the classes of possible beliefs that any macroeconomic model should account for.Read moreRead less
A Review of Work for the Dole as a Labour Market Program. The project will review the Work for the Dole program in terms of its first formal objective (to install work habits in young people)and in the wider context of giving young unemployed people the skills and confidence that will increase their chances of finding employment. The principal research tools used will be sample surveys and in-depth interviews. An independent substantial review will give a firm basis for discussions of the progr ....A Review of Work for the Dole as a Labour Market Program. The project will review the Work for the Dole program in terms of its first formal objective (to install work habits in young people)and in the wider context of giving young unemployed people the skills and confidence that will increase their chances of finding employment. The principal research tools used will be sample surveys and in-depth interviews. An independent substantial review will give a firm basis for discussions of the program, including how it can be improved and whether or not, given the political imperatives to retain it,it is desirable to increase expenditure on it.Read moreRead less
Bargaining and the price of new pharmaceuticals in Australia: An empirical analysis. The proposed research will consider whether there is a trade-off between price and access and will identify features of the regulatory framework that contribute to delays in securing access to drugs for diseases with no alternative therapy. It will provide decision makers with the necessary information to negotiate the lowest achievable price for drugs, freeing up resources for use elsewhere in the health sector ....Bargaining and the price of new pharmaceuticals in Australia: An empirical analysis. The proposed research will consider whether there is a trade-off between price and access and will identify features of the regulatory framework that contribute to delays in securing access to drugs for diseases with no alternative therapy. It will provide decision makers with the necessary information to negotiate the lowest achievable price for drugs, freeing up resources for use elsewhere in the health sector or slowing the growth in healthcare expenditure.Read moreRead less
Evaluating Research Policy in Australian Broadacre Agriculture - Accounting for Interactions between the Beef, Sheep Meat, Wool, and Grains Industries. This project studies the returns from R&D investments in Australia's broadacre agricultural industries and equity in the funding of these investments. The contribution is to explicitly recognise the interaction across cattle, sheep and cropping enterprises, while past analyses have been single industry approach. Econometric models of multi-output ....Evaluating Research Policy in Australian Broadacre Agriculture - Accounting for Interactions between the Beef, Sheep Meat, Wool, and Grains Industries. This project studies the returns from R&D investments in Australia's broadacre agricultural industries and equity in the funding of these investments. The contribution is to explicitly recognise the interaction across cattle, sheep and cropping enterprises, while past analyses have been single industry approach. Econometric models of multi-output profit function for Australian broadacre agriculture and demand systems involving these products are estimated. A multi-industry equilibrium displacement model is developed to simulate the incidence of both costs and returns of agricultural R&D, with cross-industry interaction recognised. The project is likely to contribute to the way agricultural research is administered and funded in Australia.Read moreRead less
Economic Analyses of Competitor Collaboration: Theory, Evidence, and Policy Implications. Several industries in Australia (eg. airlines, banking, telecommunications) exhibit some common characteristics: few big firms, with significant market power, selling differentiated products. Given the level of market concentration in these industries, mergers are unlikely to improve welfare. However, is the same true for collaborations on value-creating activities? What decisions, if any, should any two fi ....Economic Analyses of Competitor Collaboration: Theory, Evidence, and Policy Implications. Several industries in Australia (eg. airlines, banking, telecommunications) exhibit some common characteristics: few big firms, with significant market power, selling differentiated products. Given the level of market concentration in these industries, mergers are unlikely to improve welfare. However, is the same true for collaborations on value-creating activities? What decisions, if any, should any two firms be allowed to collaborate on? What are their effects on rival firms and consumers? The project will develop the first unifying framework to address these questions. Our research findings are expected to assist the competition policymakers in comprehensively assessing the welfare impacts of competitor collaborationsRead moreRead less