Improved seasonal rainfall prediction for grain growers using farm level data and novel modelling. Successful grain production, a key export commodity for Australia, depends heavily on reliable seasonal forecasts. However, the highly variable climate means that for Australia’s 25,000 grain growers current forecasts lack detail in space and time. Using a combination of fuzzy classification and artificial neural networks, this project will develop a locally detailed continuously updating data-driv ....Improved seasonal rainfall prediction for grain growers using farm level data and novel modelling. Successful grain production, a key export commodity for Australia, depends heavily on reliable seasonal forecasts. However, the highly variable climate means that for Australia’s 25,000 grain growers current forecasts lack detail in space and time. Using a combination of fuzzy classification and artificial neural networks, this project will develop a locally detailed continuously updating data-driven seasonal forecast system using high density climate data from the 17,000 Grain Growers Association members and climate drivers such as sea surface temperature from the Bureau of Meteorology. After validation against observed data, the forecasts will be delivered via a web-based portal to users.Read moreRead less
Environmental impacts of climate change in the Nile basin over the past 30,000 years. There is growing international and national concern over the possible environmental, economic and social impacts of global and regional climate change. This project brings together a multi-disciplinary team of internationally recognised research leaders and the resources they command to investigate the environmental impacts of climatic changes in the Nile basin over geologically recent times. The outcome will b ....Environmental impacts of climate change in the Nile basin over the past 30,000 years. There is growing international and national concern over the possible environmental, economic and social impacts of global and regional climate change. This project brings together a multi-disciplinary team of internationally recognised research leaders and the resources they command to investigate the environmental impacts of climatic changes in the Nile basin over geologically recent times. The outcome will be a more comprehensive understanding of how a major river system responds to global and regional climate change, and will provide an enhanced conceptual basis for anticipating how drainage systems such as the Murray-Darling could respond to future change.Read moreRead less
Physical mechanisms responsible for stable isotope ratios in precipitation over southeast Australia. The project will identify the physical mechanisms which determine the stable isotopic content (specifically of 18O and deuterium) in southeast Australian precipitation events. An aim is to deduce, in a physically-based manner, relevant weather and climate information from the isotopic signals. The research will be founded on a comprehensive analysis of the three dimensional atmospheric structure ....Physical mechanisms responsible for stable isotope ratios in precipitation over southeast Australia. The project will identify the physical mechanisms which determine the stable isotopic content (specifically of 18O and deuterium) in southeast Australian precipitation events. An aim is to deduce, in a physically-based manner, relevant weather and climate information from the isotopic signals. The research will be founded on a comprehensive analysis of the three dimensional atmospheric structure in the period leading up to the precipitation events, and on the innovative use of a coupled atmosphere-ocean model which can account for much of the physical complexity of the relevant processes.Read moreRead less
Understanding the effect of climate change on runoff variability and water resource systems performance. This project aims to assess the impacts of climate changes on annual runoff variability. Understanding variability of annual runoff is important in managing water resources, in catchment and stream management, and to researchers in hydrology, stream ecology and fluvial geomorphology. Expected outcomes from this research are an estimate of impact on the variability of annual runoff from futu ....Understanding the effect of climate change on runoff variability and water resource systems performance. This project aims to assess the impacts of climate changes on annual runoff variability. Understanding variability of annual runoff is important in managing water resources, in catchment and stream management, and to researchers in hydrology, stream ecology and fluvial geomorphology. Expected outcomes from this research are an estimate of impact on the variability of annual runoff from future climate change, improvement in understanding the processes that operate on the variability of annual runoff, and an assessment of the performance of water resource systems under a changing climate.Read moreRead less
Understanding and modelling of interannual hydroclimatic variability in the context of historic streamflow. Recent persistently dry conditions in Australia have triggered water restrictions in major cities and re-emphasised the importance of water to this country. This project represents an integrated package of research that will enhance our understanding of interannual hydroclimatic variability, and its implications for land and water resources systems. The methodologies and model developed he ....Understanding and modelling of interannual hydroclimatic variability in the context of historic streamflow. Recent persistently dry conditions in Australia have triggered water restrictions in major cities and re-emphasised the importance of water to this country. This project represents an integrated package of research that will enhance our understanding of interannual hydroclimatic variability, and its implications for land and water resources systems. The methodologies and model developed here will directly lead to more informed decision making for sustainable use and management of Australia's increasingly scarce natural resources to cope with changing climate over a range of time scales. This is particularly important for Australia because of its higher interannual hydroclimate variability compared to elsewhere in the world.Read moreRead less
Abrupt Southern Hemisphere Climate Change: The Role Of The Southern Ocean Thermohaline Circulation. Australia's climate is extreme, with harsh droughts, severe bushfire seasons, climate change, soil loss, and salinity all posing potentially enormous socio-economic challenges over the next ten-fifty years. Research into climate change and climate variability is thus highly significant for Australia, and will underpin efforts to protect our biodiversity and ensure the nation's environmental sustai ....Abrupt Southern Hemisphere Climate Change: The Role Of The Southern Ocean Thermohaline Circulation. Australia's climate is extreme, with harsh droughts, severe bushfire seasons, climate change, soil loss, and salinity all posing potentially enormous socio-economic challenges over the next ten-fifty years. Research into climate change and climate variability is thus highly significant for Australia, and will underpin efforts to protect our biodiversity and ensure the nation's environmental sustainability. We propose to launch a major new study of the stability of the Southern Ocean's thermohaline circulation and its role in global climate. This work could have significant long-term benefits for those sectors of society sensitive to shifts in climate; including agriculture, energy, freshwater supply, health, and tourism.Read moreRead less
Coupled ocean-carbon-atmosphere feedbacks in the global climate system. The capacity of the oceans to absorb and store carbon fundamentally regulates atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Climate change is altering the flux of carbon between the ocean and atmosphere, and may reduce the capacity of the oceans to store carbon. Research into climate change and the global ocean carbon cycle is of high national significance, and will underpin efforts to protect our biodiversity and ensure Australia's env ....Coupled ocean-carbon-atmosphere feedbacks in the global climate system. The capacity of the oceans to absorb and store carbon fundamentally regulates atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Climate change is altering the flux of carbon between the ocean and atmosphere, and may reduce the capacity of the oceans to store carbon. Research into climate change and the global ocean carbon cycle is of high national significance, and will underpin efforts to protect our biodiversity and ensure Australia's environmental sustainability. We propose a major new study of the nature of coupled ocean-carbon-atmosphere feedbacks operating in the global climate system. This work will quantify how the ocean's carbon storage capacity might shift in the future, guiding policy-makers in setting future CO2 emissions targets.Read moreRead less
Modes of Pacific Ocean variability and their relationship to regional Southern Hemisphere climate. This project will provide a thorough examination of the role of the major Pacific Ocean modes in forcing variability in Australian climate. Enhancing our knowledge of the mechanisms driving natural modes of variability and how they affect Australian rainfall is fundamental for improving seasonal forecasting and long-term climate prediction. Results from this research can contribute to the underpinn ....Modes of Pacific Ocean variability and their relationship to regional Southern Hemisphere climate. This project will provide a thorough examination of the role of the major Pacific Ocean modes in forcing variability in Australian climate. Enhancing our knowledge of the mechanisms driving natural modes of variability and how they affect Australian rainfall is fundamental for improving seasonal forecasting and long-term climate prediction. Results from this research can contribute to the underpinning sciences that inform on the risks associated with climate extremes and climate change. This is extremely beneficial to Australia, as it can have implications for adaptation strategies, assisting the socio-economic sectors dependant on climate forecasting, including agriculture, natural resources, bushfire control and water management.Read moreRead less
Narrowing the scatter and assessing the uncertainty of climate change projections of Australian river flows. Recent prolonged dry conditions in south-eastern Australia have triggered water restrictions in major cities, zero irrigation allocations in the Murray-Darling region and highlighted the importance of water to this country. This project represents an integrated package of research that will enhance our understanding of the uncertainty of future annual river flows, leading to more informed ....Narrowing the scatter and assessing the uncertainty of climate change projections of Australian river flows. Recent prolonged dry conditions in south-eastern Australia have triggered water restrictions in major cities, zero irrigation allocations in the Murray-Darling region and highlighted the importance of water to this country. This project represents an integrated package of research that will enhance our understanding of the uncertainty of future annual river flows, leading to more informed decision making for the sustainable management of Australia’s increasingly scarce water resources. The outcomes from this project are highly relevant to the national research priority “An Environmentally Sustainable Australia”, particularly priority goals “Water - a critical resource” and “Responding to climate change and variability”.Read moreRead less
The Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation: New observations of vertical mixing. The Southern Ocean and Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) play profound roles in Australian and global climate. However, we know little about how they will be affected by global warming. New velocity observations will tell us how the vertical mixing that contributes to the meridional overturning circulation, and ACC strength, change with the seasons and from year to year. The observations will also gi ....The Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation: New observations of vertical mixing. The Southern Ocean and Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) play profound roles in Australian and global climate. However, we know little about how they will be affected by global warming. New velocity observations will tell us how the vertical mixing that contributes to the meridional overturning circulation, and ACC strength, change with the seasons and from year to year. The observations will also give us a better understanding of the oceanic and atmospheric processes that drive these changes. This new information will allow climate models to be better constrained so they can more accurately predict changes to Australian and global climate.Read moreRead less