Storm activity in the Arctic and implications for rapid climate change in polar regions. Australia's weather and climate is influenced in a myriad of ways by Antarctica and its environs. The complex manners in which weather systems interact with polar processes are fundamental in understanding these links. The dramatic changes which the Arctic has undergone in recent years present a very valuable environmental framework for understanding how the complex polar weather - climate connections change ....Storm activity in the Arctic and implications for rapid climate change in polar regions. Australia's weather and climate is influenced in a myriad of ways by Antarctica and its environs. The complex manners in which weather systems interact with polar processes are fundamental in understanding these links. The dramatic changes which the Arctic has undergone in recent years present a very valuable environmental framework for understanding how the complex polar weather - climate connections change during a period of rapid change. This is of great national and community benefit in that it will lead to a fuller understanding of the polar regions, and present a broader context in which precipitation and other changes over southern Australia can be understood.Read moreRead less
Extratropical cyclone trends in current and future climate and associations with southern Australia rainfall. A sophisticated cyclone locating and tracking scheme will be applied to the NCEP-2 global atmospheric reanalysis (1979-2003) to derive new and comprehensive compilations of Southern Hemisphere synoptic activity at all tropospheric levels up to 300 hPa. Trends in cyclone behaviour will be identified and related to changes in precipitation over southern Australia. The approach will be exte ....Extratropical cyclone trends in current and future climate and associations with southern Australia rainfall. A sophisticated cyclone locating and tracking scheme will be applied to the NCEP-2 global atmospheric reanalysis (1979-2003) to derive new and comprehensive compilations of Southern Hemisphere synoptic activity at all tropospheric levels up to 300 hPa. Trends in cyclone behaviour will be identified and related to changes in precipitation over southern Australia. The approach will be extended to results from a simulation of future climate under enhanced greenhouse conditions. The extent to which extreme cyclone and precipitation events become more numerous in a warmer world will be determined and the links between them established.Read moreRead less
Global objective identification and tracking of atmospheric fronts and the role of fronts in climate change. Fronts, particularly those in the Indian and Southern Oceans, have a very strong impact on day-to-day weather over a vast proportion of Australia. Frontal systems are associated with a broad range of weather and climate parameters which affect people directly. These include precipitation, temperature, wind and a variety of extremes. The quality global climatology of fronts to be compiled ....Global objective identification and tracking of atmospheric fronts and the role of fronts in climate change. Fronts, particularly those in the Indian and Southern Oceans, have a very strong impact on day-to-day weather over a vast proportion of Australia. Frontal systems are associated with a broad range of weather and climate parameters which affect people directly. These include precipitation, temperature, wind and a variety of extremes. The quality global climatology of fronts to be compiled in this project will allow reliable assessments of how frontal systems have changed, and may be expected to change in the next century. Great community benefit will derive from understanding how these are linked with changes in Australian weather and climate extremes, and to decreases in rainfall over southern Australia in recent decades.Read moreRead less
Tropical and mid- and high latitude cyclones in a time of climate change: New insights and integration. Significant national and community benefits will be derived. Australian weather and climate variability, particularly with respect to rainfall, is influenced dramatically by meteorological features in the tropics and the extratropics. Enhanced understanding of these and their interactions will lead to increased comprehension of the causes of Australian rainfall variability and trends. There ar ....Tropical and mid- and high latitude cyclones in a time of climate change: New insights and integration. Significant national and community benefits will be derived. Australian weather and climate variability, particularly with respect to rainfall, is influenced dramatically by meteorological features in the tropics and the extratropics. Enhanced understanding of these and their interactions will lead to increased comprehension of the causes of Australian rainfall variability and trends. There are also benefits in that the project's timing is very opportune and will be able to derive benefit for Australia by participation in a number of large international programs. The personnel and students will derive considerable profit from expose to these.Read moreRead less
Australian climate extremes and predictability in a changing CO2 world: the unique role of the Southern Hemisphere extratropical ocean-atmosphere. Australia's climate is extreme, with harsh droughts, severe bushfire seasons, climate change, soil loss, and salinity all posing potentially enormous socio-economic challenges over the next fifty years. Research into climate variability, extremes, and predictability is thus highly significant for Australia, and will underpin efforts to protect our bio ....Australian climate extremes and predictability in a changing CO2 world: the unique role of the Southern Hemisphere extratropical ocean-atmosphere. Australia's climate is extreme, with harsh droughts, severe bushfire seasons, climate change, soil loss, and salinity all posing potentially enormous socio-economic challenges over the next fifty years. Research into climate variability, extremes, and predictability is thus highly significant for Australia, and will underpin efforts to protect our biodiversity and ensure the nation's environmental sustainability. We propose to launch a major new initiative in extratropical climate analysis. This work will have significant benefits for the many sectors of society reliant on interseasonal-interannual climate prediction. Prominent examples include agriculture, energy, freshwater supply, bushfire control, air quality, health, and tourism.Read moreRead less
Genesis of Australian Climate Extremes in the Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Ocean-Atmosphere. Australia's climate is extreme, with harsh droughts, severe bushfire seasons, climate change, soil loss, and salinity all posing potentially enormous socio-economic challenges over the next fifty years. Research into climate variability, extremes, and predictability is thus highly significant for Australia, and will underpin efforts to protect our biodiversity and ensure the nation's environmental s ....Genesis of Australian Climate Extremes in the Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Ocean-Atmosphere. Australia's climate is extreme, with harsh droughts, severe bushfire seasons, climate change, soil loss, and salinity all posing potentially enormous socio-economic challenges over the next fifty years. Research into climate variability, extremes, and predictability is thus highly significant for Australia, and will underpin efforts to protect our biodiversity and ensure the nation's environmental sustainability. I propose to launch a major new initiative in extratropical climate analysis. This work will have significant benefits for the many sectors of society reliant on interseasonal-interannual climate prediction. Prominent examples include agriculture, energy, freshwater supply, bushfire control, air quality, health, and tourism.Read moreRead less
Scientific basis for improved climate predictions on seasonal and climate-change timescales. This project would lead to improved accuracy of Australian climate predictions, leading to benefits in many sectors. Increasing the accuracy of seasonal climate predictions across March-May, a crucial time for decision-making in Australian agriculture but a time when the forecasts exhibit little skill, would lead to large economic/societal benefits. Separating the factors influencing tropical cyclones is ....Scientific basis for improved climate predictions on seasonal and climate-change timescales. This project would lead to improved accuracy of Australian climate predictions, leading to benefits in many sectors. Increasing the accuracy of seasonal climate predictions across March-May, a crucial time for decision-making in Australian agriculture but a time when the forecasts exhibit little skill, would lead to large economic/societal benefits. Separating the factors influencing tropical cyclones is essential to determine whether global warming is changing Australian tropical cyclones, a crucial climate change question. Separating the influences of atmospheric circulation variations and other factors on climate changes and impacts should improve climate impact predictions, leading to enhanced economic benefits.
Read moreRead less
The dynamics of deep convective clouds and their role in the climate system. Deep convective clouds are the source of some of the largest uncertainties in climate projection models. This research will better characterise turbulence, mixing and momentum transport processes around clouds and develop new methods to include these effects in climate models, leading to more robust estimates of future climate change. An additional benefit of this work is that it will develop new guidelines for cloud-in ....The dynamics of deep convective clouds and their role in the climate system. Deep convective clouds are the source of some of the largest uncertainties in climate projection models. This research will better characterise turbulence, mixing and momentum transport processes around clouds and develop new methods to include these effects in climate models, leading to more robust estimates of future climate change. An additional benefit of this work is that it will develop new guidelines for cloud-induced turbulence avoidance for use by the aviation industry and lead to increased aviation safety.Read moreRead less
Physical mechanisms responsible for stable isotope ratios in precipitation over southeast Australia. The project will identify the physical mechanisms which determine the stable isotopic content (specifically of 18O and deuterium) in southeast Australian precipitation events. An aim is to deduce, in a physically-based manner, relevant weather and climate information from the isotopic signals. The research will be founded on a comprehensive analysis of the three dimensional atmospheric structure ....Physical mechanisms responsible for stable isotope ratios in precipitation over southeast Australia. The project will identify the physical mechanisms which determine the stable isotopic content (specifically of 18O and deuterium) in southeast Australian precipitation events. An aim is to deduce, in a physically-based manner, relevant weather and climate information from the isotopic signals. The research will be founded on a comprehensive analysis of the three dimensional atmospheric structure in the period leading up to the precipitation events, and on the innovative use of a coupled atmosphere-ocean model which can account for much of the physical complexity of the relevant processes.Read moreRead less
Fire Scar Impacts on Surface Heat and Moisture Fluxes in Australia's Tropical Savanna and Feedbacks to Local and Regional Climate. Fire burns as much as 250,000 km2 of northern Australia every year, mostly tropical savanna land. The atmospheric impacts of burning extend beyond the direct emissions of aerosol and trace gases to include the effects of land surface alteration on atmospheric circulation. Using observation and modelling, this study examines the modification of surface heat and mois ....Fire Scar Impacts on Surface Heat and Moisture Fluxes in Australia's Tropical Savanna and Feedbacks to Local and Regional Climate. Fire burns as much as 250,000 km2 of northern Australia every year, mostly tropical savanna land. The atmospheric impacts of burning extend beyond the direct emissions of aerosol and trace gases to include the effects of land surface alteration on atmospheric circulation. Using observation and modelling, this study examines the modification of surface heat and moisture fluxes to the atmosphere caused by fire scars, along with the impact of such changes on atmospheric motion and precipitation at a range of scales. This unique work is of fundamental scientific interest and significance for current and future management of this important national resource.Read moreRead less