First realistic modelling of the effects of Ultra Low Frequency (ULF) wave energy in the ionosphere over the Australian region. Ultra Low Frequency (ULF) wave activity is known to produce perturbations of the ionosphere electron density. This affects technologies that involve High Frequency (HF) propagation in the ionosphere such as over-the-horizon radar (OTHR) and radio astronomy. Australia relies on OTHR for surveillance beyond our coastline using the Jindalee Operational Radar Network. Austr ....First realistic modelling of the effects of Ultra Low Frequency (ULF) wave energy in the ionosphere over the Australian region. Ultra Low Frequency (ULF) wave activity is known to produce perturbations of the ionosphere electron density. This affects technologies that involve High Frequency (HF) propagation in the ionosphere such as over-the-horizon radar (OTHR) and radio astronomy. Australia relies on OTHR for surveillance beyond our coastline using the Jindalee Operational Radar Network. Australia is also in competition for the next generation radio telescope (the SKA). This project will develop a world first model that combines ULF and HF physics to provide advanced understanding of the generation processes of radar Doppler clutter and differential phase errors in radio astronomy interferometer telescopes.Read moreRead less
Abrupt Southern Hemisphere Climate Change: The Role Of The Southern Ocean Thermohaline Circulation. Australia's climate is extreme, with harsh droughts, severe bushfire seasons, climate change, soil loss, and salinity all posing potentially enormous socio-economic challenges over the next ten-fifty years. Research into climate change and climate variability is thus highly significant for Australia, and will underpin efforts to protect our biodiversity and ensure the nation's environmental sustai ....Abrupt Southern Hemisphere Climate Change: The Role Of The Southern Ocean Thermohaline Circulation. Australia's climate is extreme, with harsh droughts, severe bushfire seasons, climate change, soil loss, and salinity all posing potentially enormous socio-economic challenges over the next ten-fifty years. Research into climate change and climate variability is thus highly significant for Australia, and will underpin efforts to protect our biodiversity and ensure the nation's environmental sustainability. We propose to launch a major new study of the stability of the Southern Ocean's thermohaline circulation and its role in global climate. This work could have significant long-term benefits for those sectors of society sensitive to shifts in climate; including agriculture, energy, freshwater supply, health, and tourism.Read moreRead less
Coupled ocean-carbon-atmosphere feedbacks in the global climate system. The capacity of the oceans to absorb and store carbon fundamentally regulates atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Climate change is altering the flux of carbon between the ocean and atmosphere, and may reduce the capacity of the oceans to store carbon. Research into climate change and the global ocean carbon cycle is of high national significance, and will underpin efforts to protect our biodiversity and ensure Australia's env ....Coupled ocean-carbon-atmosphere feedbacks in the global climate system. The capacity of the oceans to absorb and store carbon fundamentally regulates atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Climate change is altering the flux of carbon between the ocean and atmosphere, and may reduce the capacity of the oceans to store carbon. Research into climate change and the global ocean carbon cycle is of high national significance, and will underpin efforts to protect our biodiversity and ensure Australia's environmental sustainability. We propose a major new study of the nature of coupled ocean-carbon-atmosphere feedbacks operating in the global climate system. This work will quantify how the ocean's carbon storage capacity might shift in the future, guiding policy-makers in setting future CO2 emissions targets.Read moreRead less
Modes of Pacific Ocean variability and their relationship to regional Southern Hemisphere climate. This project will provide a thorough examination of the role of the major Pacific Ocean modes in forcing variability in Australian climate. Enhancing our knowledge of the mechanisms driving natural modes of variability and how they affect Australian rainfall is fundamental for improving seasonal forecasting and long-term climate prediction. Results from this research can contribute to the underpinn ....Modes of Pacific Ocean variability and their relationship to regional Southern Hemisphere climate. This project will provide a thorough examination of the role of the major Pacific Ocean modes in forcing variability in Australian climate. Enhancing our knowledge of the mechanisms driving natural modes of variability and how they affect Australian rainfall is fundamental for improving seasonal forecasting and long-term climate prediction. Results from this research can contribute to the underpinning sciences that inform on the risks associated with climate extremes and climate change. This is extremely beneficial to Australia, as it can have implications for adaptation strategies, assisting the socio-economic sectors dependant on climate forecasting, including agriculture, natural resources, bushfire control and water management.Read moreRead less
Australian climate extremes and predictability in a changing CO2 world: the unique role of the Southern Hemisphere extratropical ocean-atmosphere. Australia's climate is extreme, with harsh droughts, severe bushfire seasons, climate change, soil loss, and salinity all posing potentially enormous socio-economic challenges over the next fifty years. Research into climate variability, extremes, and predictability is thus highly significant for Australia, and will underpin efforts to protect our bio ....Australian climate extremes and predictability in a changing CO2 world: the unique role of the Southern Hemisphere extratropical ocean-atmosphere. Australia's climate is extreme, with harsh droughts, severe bushfire seasons, climate change, soil loss, and salinity all posing potentially enormous socio-economic challenges over the next fifty years. Research into climate variability, extremes, and predictability is thus highly significant for Australia, and will underpin efforts to protect our biodiversity and ensure the nation's environmental sustainability. We propose to launch a major new initiative in extratropical climate analysis. This work will have significant benefits for the many sectors of society reliant on interseasonal-interannual climate prediction. Prominent examples include agriculture, energy, freshwater supply, bushfire control, air quality, health, and tourism.Read moreRead less
Innovations in Bayesian inference with applications to climate extremes. Climate extremes have immense impacts on Australia and society, affecting agriculture, water supply and management, bushfire control, utilities, power, insurance, the economy and many other sectors. This project will examine possible changes in the frequency and intensity of Australian extreme rainfall, droughts, flooding and tropical cyclones using innovative Bayesian statistical methods. The project will provide valuable ....Innovations in Bayesian inference with applications to climate extremes. Climate extremes have immense impacts on Australia and society, affecting agriculture, water supply and management, bushfire control, utilities, power, insurance, the economy and many other sectors. This project will examine possible changes in the frequency and intensity of Australian extreme rainfall, droughts, flooding and tropical cyclones using innovative Bayesian statistical methods. The project will provide valuable training to Australian graduates in Bayesian computation and the statistical modelling of climate extremes. It will enhance Australia's reputation as a strong contributor to the development of Bayesian methodologies and climate research, and help foster collaborations between climate and mathematical scientists.Read moreRead less
Improving climate models through new insights on long-term inter-hemispheric climate synchronicity from speleothems. It is important that palaeoclimatologists continue to improve understanding of how the Earth responds to climate forcing, so that climate models can be rigorously validated and refined. Since the Earth responds to most of this forcing over time scales that exceed the length of instrumental weather measurements, the recovery of datable palaeoclimate archives that are highly sensiti ....Improving climate models through new insights on long-term inter-hemispheric climate synchronicity from speleothems. It is important that palaeoclimatologists continue to improve understanding of how the Earth responds to climate forcing, so that climate models can be rigorously validated and refined. Since the Earth responds to most of this forcing over time scales that exceed the length of instrumental weather measurements, the recovery of datable palaeoclimate archives that are highly sensitive to past climate changes is essential. Our project will provide important new palaeoclimate data from both hemispheres on how key regions of the Earth responded to past climate changes. This will bring improved understanding of past oceanic-atmospheric processes that can be fed into climate models, ultimately producing better forecasts to the benefit of all Australians.Read moreRead less
Untangling the links between El Nino and the changing global climate. Australia is a country of 'drought and flooding rain', and a key factor governing these cycles is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our project will provide the following benefits to the nation (i) increased understanding of ENSO variability; (ii) increased knowledge of the extremes of ENSO; (iii) insights into what causes ENSO to vary; and (iv) improved ability to forecast ENSO. Understanding ENSO is essential for anti ....Untangling the links between El Nino and the changing global climate. Australia is a country of 'drought and flooding rain', and a key factor governing these cycles is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our project will provide the following benefits to the nation (i) increased understanding of ENSO variability; (ii) increased knowledge of the extremes of ENSO; (iii) insights into what causes ENSO to vary; and (iv) improved ability to forecast ENSO. Understanding ENSO is essential for anticipating changes in drought and rain in the future. This understanding will help us to adapt Australia's valuable agricultural and farming industries to climate change, and to manage our precious water resources.Read moreRead less
Testing the hypothesis of synchronous inter-hemispheric climatic change during the Last Termination (20,000-10,000 years ago). The results generated in this project will provide a greater understanding of the sensitivity of the Australasian region to a range of different climatic conditions (far beyond that recorded in historical datasets). Focussing on climate at the end of the last ice age (20,000-10,000 years ago) we will investigate the timing, rate and magnitude of change in the Australasi ....Testing the hypothesis of synchronous inter-hemispheric climatic change during the Last Termination (20,000-10,000 years ago). The results generated in this project will provide a greater understanding of the sensitivity of the Australasian region to a range of different climatic conditions (far beyond that recorded in historical datasets). Focussing on climate at the end of the last ice age (20,000-10,000 years ago) we will investigate the timing, rate and magnitude of change in the Australasian region and test whether the variability was in phase with other records from the mid- and high-latitudes of the Southern and Northern Hemisphere. The results will provide a considerably improved context for understanding present and future climate change in Australia. Read moreRead less
Variability in El Niño frequency and intensity over the past 4000 years. Fossil corals contain a rich archive of past climate variability for tropical oceans which can extend the limited instrumental data and increase our understanding of climate sensitivity. El Niño variations in the Pacific have far-reaching impacts on Australian climate, and this project will reconstruct variations in the past in order to better forecast climate sensitivity in the future. It focuses on Christmas Island whic ....Variability in El Niño frequency and intensity over the past 4000 years. Fossil corals contain a rich archive of past climate variability for tropical oceans which can extend the limited instrumental data and increase our understanding of climate sensitivity. El Niño variations in the Pacific have far-reaching impacts on Australian climate, and this project will reconstruct variations in the past in order to better forecast climate sensitivity in the future. It focuses on Christmas Island which is the optimal site to capture El Niño variability at several different time scales, and will lead to a better understanding of atmospheric and oceanic factors that have caused climate variability.Read moreRead less