The Objects of Probabilities. Probabilities impact almost every aspect of our lives. Actuaries calculate probabilities of property loss due to bushfires, while climatologists warn that such probabilities will increase alarmingly. Probabilities abound in engineering, medicine, the law, the sciences and social sciences, and much philosophy. Yet we lack a proper understanding of the kinds of things that receive probabilities: the objects of probabilities. This project will provide such understandin ....The Objects of Probabilities. Probabilities impact almost every aspect of our lives. Actuaries calculate probabilities of property loss due to bushfires, while climatologists warn that such probabilities will increase alarmingly. Probabilities abound in engineering, medicine, the law, the sciences and social sciences, and much philosophy. Yet we lack a proper understanding of the kinds of things that receive probabilities: the objects of probabilities. This project will provide such understanding. It will rethink the foundations of probability and decision theory, with potential ramifications for the philosophy, science, and public policy that are based on these theories. It thus aims to strengthen Australia's research profile and international standing in these areas.Read moreRead less
Investment Approaches and Applications in Financial Markets: Evolutionary Kernel Based Subset Time-Series Using Semi-Parametric Approaches. The project will develop new investment assessments based on subset time-series modeling. Innovative evolutionary kernel smoothing algorithms using semi-parametric approaches will be introduced. The project will make three important applications of this modeling in financial markets: a) benchmarking and evaluation of inflation-indexed bonds; b) evaluation of ....Investment Approaches and Applications in Financial Markets: Evolutionary Kernel Based Subset Time-Series Using Semi-Parametric Approaches. The project will develop new investment assessments based on subset time-series modeling. Innovative evolutionary kernel smoothing algorithms using semi-parametric approaches will be introduced. The project will make three important applications of this modeling in financial markets: a) benchmarking and evaluation of inflation-indexed bonds; b) evaluation of the performance of global diversified investment funds; and c) prediction to provide early warning of the emergence of destabilising deflation or inflation. These three applications will lead to improved risk management practices and investment performance. Recursive algorithms will provide new statistical methods to study investment asset price movements and market volatility.
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The improvement of climate change investigations by developing and applying innovative evolutionary subset time series modelling using semi-parametric sparse-patterned approaches. With an estimated US$6.98 trillion loss indicated in the Stern review, severe climate change will make world climate conditions harsher and more likely include large natural climate disasters. The health of the Australian economy is critically dependent on decisions of environmental managers. However, most problems of ....The improvement of climate change investigations by developing and applying innovative evolutionary subset time series modelling using semi-parametric sparse-patterned approaches. With an estimated US$6.98 trillion loss indicated in the Stern review, severe climate change will make world climate conditions harsher and more likely include large natural climate disasters. The health of the Australian economy is critically dependent on decisions of environmental managers. However, most problems of complexity arising in climate change involve issues on which we do not possess a deep understanding. This project draws upon a set of inter-disciplinary concepts and models centred in neural networks that enable us to advance our understanding of complexity, leading to superior quantitative tools and models to allow for improved environmental decision-making.
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Investment approaches and opportunities in renewable energy and financial resource markets, using semi-parametric approaches to evolutionary subset time-series lattice-ladder modelling. The project findings will help Australian exporters and importers understand and manage energy and resource price risks more effectively. The investment community will benefit through selecting optimal asset allocations and enhancing value to investors. It will also benefit many other agencies, particularly in th ....Investment approaches and opportunities in renewable energy and financial resource markets, using semi-parametric approaches to evolutionary subset time-series lattice-ladder modelling. The project findings will help Australian exporters and importers understand and manage energy and resource price risks more effectively. The investment community will benefit through selecting optimal asset allocations and enhancing value to investors. It will also benefit many other agencies, particularly in the service industries. It is not well recognised that in developed countries, including Australia, the financial service and related sectors account for more than 60 percent of economic activity and employment, so it is critical that more sophisticated statistical methods be established, and practical applications conducted, in order to advance the understanding of complexity management in the financial service and related sectors.Read moreRead less
The improvement of investment approaches by developing and applying bootstrap methods to innovative evolutionary kernel-based subset time-series modelling. With over $1 trillion of investors' monies in the hands of fund managers, the importance of efficient investment decisions across all industry sectors is self evident. Even if the modest target of systematically improving decision making by 1 or 2 % is set, the aggregate economic benefit achieved, given the compounding effects will be enormou ....The improvement of investment approaches by developing and applying bootstrap methods to innovative evolutionary kernel-based subset time-series modelling. With over $1 trillion of investors' monies in the hands of fund managers, the importance of efficient investment decisions across all industry sectors is self evident. Even if the modest target of systematically improving decision making by 1 or 2 % is set, the aggregate economic benefit achieved, given the compounding effects will be enormous. Any developed or developing country will profit from such advanced decision-making approaches. Therefore it is critical that more sophisticated statistical methods be established, and practical applications conducted, in order to advance the understanding of complexity management in the financial investment and other relevant sectors.Read moreRead less
The Mathematical and Philosophical Foundations of Probability. We find probability wherever we find uncertainty: virtually everywhere in our lives. Probability is essential to almost every technology. High-stakes decisions are routinely made on the basis of probability judgments and risk assessment-for example, in engineering, medicine, agriculture, environmental management, urban planning, public policy, public health, the law, and in our national defence. And some of those decisions have been ....The Mathematical and Philosophical Foundations of Probability. We find probability wherever we find uncertainty: virtually everywhere in our lives. Probability is essential to almost every technology. High-stakes decisions are routinely made on the basis of probability judgments and risk assessment-for example, in engineering, medicine, agriculture, environmental management, urban planning, public policy, public health, the law, and in our national defence. And some of those decisions have been made badly because of poor probability estimates-witness the 1986 space shuttle disaster. Our current methodologies for using probability are inadequate. This project will make an important contribution to the collective enterprise of enhancing our understanding of probability and its myriad applications.Read moreRead less
Mathematical Methods for Next Generation Sequencing. The emergence of a new generation of high throughput genomic sequencing technologies is providing unprecedented opportunities for biological research. Hidden within the huge amounts of data generated by this technology is information about the expression and regulation of genes, and the complex functional purpose of non-coding, so called 'junk', DNA. Development of mathematical and statistical tools is essential to interpreting these data. The ....Mathematical Methods for Next Generation Sequencing. The emergence of a new generation of high throughput genomic sequencing technologies is providing unprecedented opportunities for biological research. Hidden within the huge amounts of data generated by this technology is information about the expression and regulation of genes, and the complex functional purpose of non-coding, so called 'junk', DNA. Development of mathematical and statistical tools is essential to interpreting these data. The proposed research will enhance Australia's reputation for developing novel quantitative techniques at the cutting edge of modern biology. The proposed project has a broad range of potential applications in biotechnology, particularly in the medical and agricultural industries.Read moreRead less
Studies of turbulence and coherent structures in quasi two-dimensional plasmas and fluids. One of the most celebrated but least understood complex systems in nature is turbulent flow. This cross-disciplinary project aims to contribute to basic scientific knowledge of a class of turbulent flows, known as quasi two-dimensional fluids, that typically exhibit self-organizing properties, stable sheared flow, and relatively weak dissipation. The significance lies in the proposed testing, by modelling ....Studies of turbulence and coherent structures in quasi two-dimensional plasmas and fluids. One of the most celebrated but least understood complex systems in nature is turbulent flow. This cross-disciplinary project aims to contribute to basic scientific knowledge of a class of turbulent flows, known as quasi two-dimensional fluids, that typically exhibit self-organizing properties, stable sheared flow, and relatively weak dissipation. The significance lies in the proposed testing, by modelling and simulation studies, of the well-grounded hypothesis that suppression of turbulence by sheared flow is a universal phenomenon in such fluids, and that it can be exploited to control transport of fluid constituents. Applications of this new knowledge will be developed.Read moreRead less
Parallel and Distributed Machine Learning - Smart Data Analysis in the Multicore Era. In large data centres our research will lead to reduced energy consumption by using graphics cards which have a much better computation to power ratio than traditional processors. On desktop computers, it will make machine learning practical by enabling efficient algorithms for spam filtering and content analysis. On networked systems it will lead to distributed inference, caching and collaborative filtering ap ....Parallel and Distributed Machine Learning - Smart Data Analysis in the Multicore Era. In large data centres our research will lead to reduced energy consumption by using graphics cards which have a much better computation to power ratio than traditional processors. On desktop computers, it will make machine learning practical by enabling efficient algorithms for spam filtering and content analysis. On networked systems it will lead to distributed inference, caching and collaborative filtering applications which will both reduced the bandwidth required and make the internet safer for users. Finally, it will enable rapid deployment of sensor networks for monitoring and detection, such as for environmental monitoring and safeguarding Australia's borders.Read moreRead less
The Initiation and 3D Evolution of Instabilities in the Deep Continental Lithosphere. This project is part of a new international initiative in the Geodynamics of the Australian Plate bringing together studies of the active tectonics of the boundary regions of our plate and the ancient analogues of these processes which are locked into the stable interior of the Australian continent. The proposed research is a good fit to the Identification and Extraction of Deep Earth Resources priority goal. D ....The Initiation and 3D Evolution of Instabilities in the Deep Continental Lithosphere. This project is part of a new international initiative in the Geodynamics of the Australian Plate bringing together studies of the active tectonics of the boundary regions of our plate and the ancient analogues of these processes which are locked into the stable interior of the Australian continent. The proposed research is a good fit to the Identification and Extraction of Deep Earth Resources priority goal. Detachment of the lithosphere is associated with fertile mantle being emplaced at shallow depth below the crust; an important precursory event for mineralization. The project builds upon AuScope (NCRIS 5.13) to create infrastructure for a new, smart resource exploration and extraction industry based on modelling and simulation.Read moreRead less