Mining venture risk: novel econometric methods to integrate joint financial and geological uncertainty into dynamic risk forecasting measures. The mining industry is nationally important: it contributed $33,927M to Australia's GDP in 2002-3. This project's outcomes - sophisticated statistical and econometric tools - will significantly improve capability for forecasting overall risk to mining projects requiring vast upfront, irreversible investments, and contribute to its efficiency and internati ....Mining venture risk: novel econometric methods to integrate joint financial and geological uncertainty into dynamic risk forecasting measures. The mining industry is nationally important: it contributed $33,927M to Australia's GDP in 2002-3. This project's outcomes - sophisticated statistical and econometric tools - will significantly improve capability for forecasting overall risk to mining projects requiring vast upfront, irreversible investments, and contribute to its efficiency and international competitiveness. Innovative methods driven by data from complex financial and geological systems will integrate price volatility risk and orebody uncertainty in a real options framework, providing holistic, rigorous measurement of mining venture risk. Xstrata Queensland Ltd will strongly support and participate in research training of an identified candidate to deliver discoveries to the wider industry.Read moreRead less
Supply-side dynamics in the private rental housing market. Demographic and socio-economic trends, along with changes in housing policy, have resulted in increased reliance on the private rental sector. This has led to growing concerns about its capacity to respond. Our understanding of the supply dynamics of this tenure, and particularly that of low rent housing, is underdeveloped. This gap in our knowledge is due to lack of data and to methodological difficulties. Recent advances in econometric ....Supply-side dynamics in the private rental housing market. Demographic and socio-economic trends, along with changes in housing policy, have resulted in increased reliance on the private rental sector. This has led to growing concerns about its capacity to respond. Our understanding of the supply dynamics of this tenure, and particularly that of low rent housing, is underdeveloped. This gap in our knowledge is due to lack of data and to methodological difficulties. Recent advances in econometric techniques, in conjunction with the assembly of a unique data set, will be used to examine previously untested explanations, including microlevel filtering, behavioural,hazard function and spatial analyses.Read moreRead less
New approaches for testing in nonlinear models. The outcome of this project is a new econometric methodology that will be particularly useful for developing our understanding of Australian (and global) financial markets. Specific benefits are that (i) our value-at-risk models will enhance national and international awareness of issues relating to financial risk management; (ii) our exchange rate pass through model will aid the development of Australian trade and pricing policies and (iii) our du ....New approaches for testing in nonlinear models. The outcome of this project is a new econometric methodology that will be particularly useful for developing our understanding of Australian (and global) financial markets. Specific benefits are that (i) our value-at-risk models will enhance national and international awareness of issues relating to financial risk management; (ii) our exchange rate pass through model will aid the development of Australian trade and pricing policies and (iii) our duration models for trade in Australian stocks will lead to a better understanding of the microstructure of the Australian stock market.Read moreRead less
Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of stochastic differential equations. The primary objective of this project is to develop efficient algorithms for estimating the parameters of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) by simulated and exact maximum likelihood. The research will draw on both parametric and non-parametric analysis in novel ways to construct estimation procedures that are computationally feasible. These methods will then be applied in the area of finance and used to ....Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of stochastic differential equations. The primary objective of this project is to develop efficient algorithms for estimating the parameters of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) by simulated and exact maximum likelihood. The research will draw on both parametric and non-parametric analysis in novel ways to construct estimation procedures that are computationally feasible. These methods will then be applied in the area of finance and used to estimate the parameters of stochastic-volatility models, thus contributing to knowledge in a prominent area of complex systems, namely financial risk. The execution of this collaborative project will deliver quality research training in the topical area of mathematical finance and produce high-calibre postgraduates.
Read moreRead less
A new look at modelling population heterogeneity in econometric study. This research will advance existing quantitative techniques in economic study. New theoretical results will help enhance Australian research reputations. The innovative techniques developed in this project will be demonstrated to study labour force participation of people with disabilities in Australia. Findings of the empirical study will help governments in providing financial assistance to affected families and addressing ....A new look at modelling population heterogeneity in econometric study. This research will advance existing quantitative techniques in economic study. New theoretical results will help enhance Australian research reputations. The innovative techniques developed in this project will be demonstrated to study labour force participation of people with disabilities in Australia. Findings of the empirical study will help governments in providing financial assistance to affected families and addressing the issue of labour shortage in Australia. Furthermore the participation of a high profile international researcher will benefit the local research community and provide a research training opportunity for local postgraduate students.Read moreRead less
A Multivariate Dynamic Factor Model of the Australian Business Cycle: Specification, Estimation and Empirical Results. The project aims to extend greatly existing models of national and international business cycles by developing a general class of dynamic factor models for Australia. The project provides a significant contribution to business cycle modelling by solving the intractability problems common to existing classes of dynamic factor models. A key innovation is the development of a simul ....A Multivariate Dynamic Factor Model of the Australian Business Cycle: Specification, Estimation and Empirical Results. The project aims to extend greatly existing models of national and international business cycles by developing a general class of dynamic factor models for Australia. The project provides a significant contribution to business cycle modelling by solving the intractability problems common to existing classes of dynamic factor models. A key innovation is the development of a simulation based estimator to circumvent the statistical and computational problems associated with existing estimators. The expected outcome of the project will be a more reliable way to monitor the phases of the cycle and forecast turning points, which will be of substantial national benefit.Read moreRead less
Persistence in Economic Time Series: Interpretation, Measurement and Inference. An economic time series is said to be persistent if shocks to the series have a permanent effect. Accurate and unambiguous inferences regarding persistence are crucial to an understanding of the response of the variable to shocks, in particular to policy-induced shocks. In this project we will explore new ways of interpreting, measuring and conducting inference on persistence. The aim is to produce significant theor ....Persistence in Economic Time Series: Interpretation, Measurement and Inference. An economic time series is said to be persistent if shocks to the series have a permanent effect. Accurate and unambiguous inferences regarding persistence are crucial to an understanding of the response of the variable to shocks, in particular to policy-induced shocks. In this project we will explore new ways of interpreting, measuring and conducting inference on persistence. The aim is to produce significant theoretical and methodological advances which, when applied to empirical problems, will enable reliable conclusions to be drawn regarding the propagation of shocks and, hence, the likely impact of interventionist government policies.Read moreRead less
Modelling stock market liquidity in Australia and the Asia Pacific Region. This project will develop new methods of assessing stock market liquidity in Australia and the Asia-Pacific region. These methods will use high frequency transactions-based data provided by the industry partner, SIRCA. The data will be the basis of smart information real time algorithms for measuring market liquidity. They will incorporate generalizations and extensions of recent developments in time series econometrics, ....Modelling stock market liquidity in Australia and the Asia Pacific Region. This project will develop new methods of assessing stock market liquidity in Australia and the Asia-Pacific region. These methods will use high frequency transactions-based data provided by the industry partner, SIRCA. The data will be the basis of smart information real time algorithms for measuring market liquidity. They will incorporate generalizations and extensions of recent developments in time series econometrics, and will be calibrated and evaluated statistically. The novel methods will be crucial to market participants and to regulators, who will be able to apply them to assess market depth and liquidity, and reduce trading costs substantially.Read moreRead less
Latent variable modelling of discrete choice experiments. Discrete choice experiments and models are used to forecast consumer responses to changes in products policies and programs worldwide. Recent research suggests key model assumptions are violated because error variances covary with observed and unobserved factors. In order to address this, we will model systematic relationships between error variances and observed (eg, prices, survey length) and unobserved (eg, 'convenience', 'reputation') ....Latent variable modelling of discrete choice experiments. Discrete choice experiments and models are used to forecast consumer responses to changes in products policies and programs worldwide. Recent research suggests key model assumptions are violated because error variances covary with observed and unobserved factors. In order to address this, we will model systematic relationships between error variances and observed (eg, prices, survey length) and unobserved (eg, 'convenience', 'reputation') factors to improve model reliability and accuracy. This should lead to more accurate models/forecasts, benefitting business and government, which addresses the national priority of 'frontier technologies, promoting an innovative culture and economy'.Read moreRead less
Why poorer students are less likely to go to university: Theoretical and empirical evidence for Australia with implications for policy. This project will improve our understanding of the factors that lead to the under-representation of low income students in universities in Australia and other countries. The focus of the analysis will be the impact of a student's family and household environment and innate ability on their school performance, an essential pre-requisite for university admission, ....Why poorer students are less likely to go to university: Theoretical and empirical evidence for Australia with implications for policy. This project will improve our understanding of the factors that lead to the under-representation of low income students in universities in Australia and other countries. The focus of the analysis will be the impact of a student's family and household environment and innate ability on their school performance, an essential pre-requisite for university admission, together with the costs of university education. Identifying the relative importance of these factors in determining educational success will enable families, schools, universities and educational policy-makers to improve opportunities for high ability students from all socioeconomic backgrounds. This will in turn enhance economic growth and productivity, benefiting all Australians.Read moreRead less