Price Discovery in Equity and Volatility Futures for Trading and Hedging. This project aims to develop a multivariate asynchronous technique to analyse the price discovery of movements in equity stock indices, volatility index futures and exchange traded products. This project expects to generate new knowledge in the area of financial econometrics using an innovative mixed frequency sampling approach to establish robust causal inferences. Expected outcomes of the project include enhanced econome ....Price Discovery in Equity and Volatility Futures for Trading and Hedging. This project aims to develop a multivariate asynchronous technique to analyse the price discovery of movements in equity stock indices, volatility index futures and exchange traded products. This project expects to generate new knowledge in the area of financial econometrics using an innovative mixed frequency sampling approach to establish robust causal inferences. Expected outcomes of the project include enhanced econometric theory and its implementation in applied finance. This should provide significant benefits in the price discovery of the equity index in Australia, including insights that will help Australian funds in hedging and trading volatility.Read moreRead less
Prior sensitivity analysis for Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo output. This project aims to develop the first set of techniques to implement an automated output sensitivity analysis for Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation methods. Computationally intense Bayesian MCMC provide a powerful alternative to classical methods for the estimation of economic models. An obstacle to their wider application is that researchers need to specify prior beliefs about model parameters that will affect t ....Prior sensitivity analysis for Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo output. This project aims to develop the first set of techniques to implement an automated output sensitivity analysis for Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation methods. Computationally intense Bayesian MCMC provide a powerful alternative to classical methods for the estimation of economic models. An obstacle to their wider application is that researchers need to specify prior beliefs about model parameters that will affect the results. The expected outcomes will enable researchers to undertake a routine assessment of the sensitivity of the results to prior inputs.Read moreRead less
Building economic development through psychosocial intervention. This project is the first study that reduces poverty and increases productivity in a post-conflict country by addressing the psychosocial problems that impede the capacity of a workforce to effectively learn and apply skills. Although conducted in Aceh, Indonesia, these findings may show how to reduce poverty in all countries affected by conflict.
Asset Market Interconnectedness and Exotic Options: The Mean Impact Surface. The project intends to develop models to price financial risk more accurately during periods of financial stress and increasing global interconnectedness. Specifically, it plans to develop a new class of latent factor models with time-varying loadings to model the interconnectedness of global financial markets during periods of financial stress. A key feature of the proposed model is the role of second-order conditional ....Asset Market Interconnectedness and Exotic Options: The Mean Impact Surface. The project intends to develop models to price financial risk more accurately during periods of financial stress and increasing global interconnectedness. Specifically, it plans to develop a new class of latent factor models with time-varying loadings to model the interconnectedness of global financial markets during periods of financial stress. A key feature of the proposed model is the role of second-order conditional moments of the underlying innovation processes in modelling asset return dynamics. The proposed model is characterised by higher order nonlinear structures which are captured graphically by the mean impact surface. The project also plans to develop a new class of tests to detect higher order dependencies among asset returns in the presence of time-varying volatility, and to investigate the implications for constructing portfolios with exotic options to hedge risk during financial crises.Read moreRead less
A New Phase and New Issues of Rural-Urban Migration in China. China’s urbanisation has come to a turning point. The large pool of rural young workers (16-25 years of age), which fed the industrialisation needs of the 1990s and 2000s, has exhausted. Future growth needs to rely on the increase in the length of stay of the existing migrants and the increase in older new migrants. Due to this shift, the institutional restrictions, which deter family migration, become the key challenge. This project ....A New Phase and New Issues of Rural-Urban Migration in China. China’s urbanisation has come to a turning point. The large pool of rural young workers (16-25 years of age), which fed the industrialisation needs of the 1990s and 2000s, has exhausted. Future growth needs to rely on the increase in the length of stay of the existing migrants and the increase in older new migrants. Due to this shift, the institutional restrictions, which deter family migration, become the key challenge. This project examines the cost of the migration restrictions (shortened labour supply and reduced human capital accumulation for the current and next generation migrants: their education, health and pro-social behaviour); and the best way to reform the restrictions on family migration and the priority for the reform.Read moreRead less
Dynamic Count Models of Financial Contagion with Applications to Global Banking and Currency Crises. An international model of contagion and interconnectedness is developed and applied using annual time series on banking and currency crises in developed and emerging countries. The model represents a new class of multivariate dynamic count models that allows for important dynamical interactions to capture the transmission of financial crises across national and international asset markets. The p ....Dynamic Count Models of Financial Contagion with Applications to Global Banking and Currency Crises. An international model of contagion and interconnectedness is developed and applied using annual time series on banking and currency crises in developed and emerging countries. The model represents a new class of multivariate dynamic count models that allows for important dynamical interactions to capture the transmission of financial crises across national and international asset markets. The properties of the models are investigated as well as the development of new estimation methods based on simulation techniques. An important implication of the approach is that it can be used as an early warning signal of future crises, thereby providing an input into the design of future policy on crisis management.Read moreRead less
An Edition of the Remaining Unpublished Writings of JM Keynes. John Maynard Keynes, one of the most influential of 20th century economists, has returned to prominence during the recent global crisis. Despite his intellectual importance, a vast quantity of his writings on economics, philosophy, politics and other subjects remains unpublished. This project aims to address this issue by publishing these writings in a twelve volume edition, commencing with necessary groundwork for the edition as a w ....An Edition of the Remaining Unpublished Writings of JM Keynes. John Maynard Keynes, one of the most influential of 20th century economists, has returned to prominence during the recent global crisis. Despite his intellectual importance, a vast quantity of his writings on economics, philosophy, politics and other subjects remains unpublished. This project aims to address this issue by publishing these writings in a twelve volume edition, commencing with necessary groundwork for the edition as a whole and preparation of the first two volumes. The expected outcomes are a prestigious international edition, deeper understandings of Keynes’s economic theories and policies and their foundations, and subsequent publications analysing the significance of these writings.Read moreRead less
The unpublished writings of JM Keynes. Our knowledge of the writings of JM Keynes, an economist to whom many policy-makers have turned in the recent global crisis, is seriously incomplete. The project addresses this issue by producing the opening volumes of a twelve volume edition that provides access to his many unpublished contributions to economics, philosophy and politics.
Farmers of the Future: the Challenges of Feminised Agriculture in India. Neoliberal economic policies are fundamentally transforming the social landscapes of rural India, causing a deep agrarian crisis. The agrarian changes accentuate the unequal consequences for poor women and men in relation to: production (labour, tenure); livelihood and food security; access to and ownership of assets such as land and water and access to agricultural innovations and institutions. This multiscalar project inv ....Farmers of the Future: the Challenges of Feminised Agriculture in India. Neoliberal economic policies are fundamentally transforming the social landscapes of rural India, causing a deep agrarian crisis. The agrarian changes accentuate the unequal consequences for poor women and men in relation to: production (labour, tenure); livelihood and food security; access to and ownership of assets such as land and water and access to agricultural innovations and institutions. This multiscalar project investigates the causes and consequences of feminisation of agriculture in India’s transitioning economy in order to understand how gender roles and relations are being re-shaped in communities and households in diverse socioeconomic and cultural contexts and agro-ecological areas.Read moreRead less
Reliability of purchasing power parities from the World Bank. This project aims to provide an econometric framework to estimate purchasing power parities (PPPs) and a method to compute standard errors associated with the World Bank’s International Comparison Programme (ICP)’s PPPs. The ICP regularly compiles and publishes estimates of PPPs of currencies and real incomes. These results are used for study of global inequality and poverty; macroeconomic analysis; the Human Development Index; and cr ....Reliability of purchasing power parities from the World Bank. This project aims to provide an econometric framework to estimate purchasing power parities (PPPs) and a method to compute standard errors associated with the World Bank’s International Comparison Programme (ICP)’s PPPs. The ICP regularly compiles and publishes estimates of PPPs of currencies and real incomes. These results are used for study of global inequality and poverty; macroeconomic analysis; the Human Development Index; and cross-country productivity comparisons. However, no estimates of ICP PPPs’ reliability are available. Results from this project are likely to improve the quality of widely used data sets including the Penn World Tables and the University of Queensland International Comparison Database relevant to banking.Read moreRead less