SEA LEVELS, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EL NINO VARIABILITY DURING WARM INTERGLACIATIONS. Sea levels, sea surface temperatures and the variability of El Niño will be determined for previous warm interglacial periods using well dated, stratigraphically controlled fossil corals preserved in uplifted reefs. Relationships between past changes in sea level and warmer ocean temperatures will provide insights into the response of sea level to global warming. Knowledge of the frequency and amplitude o ....SEA LEVELS, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EL NINO VARIABILITY DURING WARM INTERGLACIATIONS. Sea levels, sea surface temperatures and the variability of El Niño will be determined for previous warm interglacial periods using well dated, stratigraphically controlled fossil corals preserved in uplifted reefs. Relationships between past changes in sea level and warmer ocean temperatures will provide insights into the response of sea level to global warming. Knowledge of the frequency and amplitude of El Nino events that occurred during previous interglacial warm periods will provide a better understanding of processes controlling extreme events in the climate system.Read moreRead less
Drought, El Niño and Climate Change in Queensland over the last 200,000 years: the Lynch's Crater lake record. Lynch's Crater (Queensland) provides the longest, most sensitive terrestrial record of vegetation and climate change in the low altitude tropics. A multidisciplinary approach will exploit the potential of a core collected in 2003 through high-resolution multiproxy (sedimentology, geochemistry, stable and radiogenic isotopes, pollen, charcoal and diatoms) studies. The results will contri ....Drought, El Niño and Climate Change in Queensland over the last 200,000 years: the Lynch's Crater lake record. Lynch's Crater (Queensland) provides the longest, most sensitive terrestrial record of vegetation and climate change in the low altitude tropics. A multidisciplinary approach will exploit the potential of a core collected in 2003 through high-resolution multiproxy (sedimentology, geochemistry, stable and radiogenic isotopes, pollen, charcoal and diatoms) studies. The results will contribute substantially to the resolution of current debates on the role of the tropics in global climate forcing at a variety of temporal scales, including that of the El Niño phenomenon. The reconstruction of temperature and precipitation over the past 200,000 years will improve global climate databases and prediction models.Read moreRead less
Improving understanding of climate change and its impacts in Australia through detection and attribution of climate change. This research will quantify the contribution to Australian regional climate change due to greenhouse gases, which will assist policymakers in reaching decisions about policies on emission reductions or adaptation to greenhouse climate change. Improved estimates of uncertainties in future regional climate changes due to increasing greenhouse gases will allow better quantifi ....Improving understanding of climate change and its impacts in Australia through detection and attribution of climate change. This research will quantify the contribution to Australian regional climate change due to greenhouse gases, which will assist policymakers in reaching decisions about policies on emission reductions or adaptation to greenhouse climate change. Improved estimates of uncertainties in future regional climate changes due to increasing greenhouse gases will allow better quantification of their likely impacts, estimation of the costs or maximising any benefits from regional climate changes. Through collaboration with the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, this research enhances Australia's capabilities in diagnostic analysis of climate variability and change, and aids the development and evaluation of new Australian climate models. Read moreRead less
Responding to the threat of climate change: identifying effective strategies for the wheat industry of south-east Australia. This project will first evaluate the probable impacts of climatic change and variability on wheat production in southern Australia and will then assess the effectiveness of actual and potential adaptive management strategies designed to mitigate these impacts. The expected outcomes will include quantified impacts of future climate change and variability on wheat productio ....Responding to the threat of climate change: identifying effective strategies for the wheat industry of south-east Australia. This project will first evaluate the probable impacts of climatic change and variability on wheat production in southern Australia and will then assess the effectiveness of actual and potential adaptive management strategies designed to mitigate these impacts. The expected outcomes will include quantified impacts of future climate change and variability on wheat production in southern Australia, identification of regions at greater risk in the future and least likely to be viable in the longer run, and identification of effective adaptive management strategies designed to cope with these risks.Read moreRead less
Improving Projections of Regional Climate Change for Australia Using Detection and Attribution Studies. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded in 2001 that "most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations" and that "anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries". This project will reduce uncertainties in projections of future climate change for Australia. We will compare model-simulate ....Improving Projections of Regional Climate Change for Australia Using Detection and Attribution Studies. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded in 2001 that "most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations" and that "anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries". This project will reduce uncertainties in projections of future climate change for Australia. We will compare model-simulated climate changes during the twentieth century with observed changes globally and in the Australian region. These comparisons will be used with statistical modelling to estimate probability distributions for future changes in Australian climate.Read moreRead less
Are humans responsible for recent changes in the behaviour of tropical cyclones? Decoupling natural variability from human influence using isotopes. An increase in the frequency of intense landfalling tropical cyclones will have a major impact upon Australia's economy and the safety of its citizens and visitors. There is little doubt that global climate change will cause this increase. Understanding when this might occur and the extent of this change over and above that which could also occur na ....Are humans responsible for recent changes in the behaviour of tropical cyclones? Decoupling natural variability from human influence using isotopes. An increase in the frequency of intense landfalling tropical cyclones will have a major impact upon Australia's economy and the safety of its citizens and visitors. There is little doubt that global climate change will cause this increase. Understanding when this might occur and the extent of this change over and above that which could also occur naturally will help reduce economic loss and save peoples' lives. Using isotope records of tropical cyclones and global climate models we will differentiate natural from human induced changes and ascertain the likely future impact of this hazard on Australia and its near neighbours.Read moreRead less
UPTAKE OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 IN THE OCEANS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR GLOBAL CHANGE: NEW PROXY DEVELOPMENTS. This project aims to quantify the response of the oceans to increasing atmospheric CO2 from anthropogenic production. This will be achieved by using newly developed paleoceanographic indicators in deep sea sediments, corals and coralline sponges. These will be used to evaluate changes in seawater acidity and the response of the oceans to past variations in atmospheric CO2. The capacity and role o ....UPTAKE OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 IN THE OCEANS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR GLOBAL CHANGE: NEW PROXY DEVELOPMENTS. This project aims to quantify the response of the oceans to increasing atmospheric CO2 from anthropogenic production. This will be achieved by using newly developed paleoceanographic indicators in deep sea sediments, corals and coralline sponges. These will be used to evaluate changes in seawater acidity and the response of the oceans to past variations in atmospheric CO2. The capacity and role of the oceans to buffer the rise of atmospheric of CO2 will be ascertained. This will provide constraints on the impact of increased seawater acidity on coral reefs such as the Great Barrier Reef.Read moreRead less
The key role of the Southern Ocean in atmospheric CO2 sequestration. The integrated approach proposed in this study aims to quantify past changes in marine productivity and its role in controlling past atmospheric CO2 variations. This will be achieved by studying deep sea sediments from the Southern Ocean, a key area with a fundamental importance in the global ocean biological pump. This research will enhance our understanding of the linkages connecting marine biota, the ocean carbon cycle and g ....The key role of the Southern Ocean in atmospheric CO2 sequestration. The integrated approach proposed in this study aims to quantify past changes in marine productivity and its role in controlling past atmospheric CO2 variations. This will be achieved by studying deep sea sediments from the Southern Ocean, a key area with a fundamental importance in the global ocean biological pump. This research will enhance our understanding of the linkages connecting marine biota, the ocean carbon cycle and global climate, providing the basis for more reliable predictions about the impacts of the recent rapid atmospheric CO2 increase. Possible remediation solutions involving marine phytoplankton to this CO2 excess will be thoroughly assessed.Read moreRead less
Reengineering a dynamic vegetation model to explore the stability of Australian terrestrial carbon. Overseas models do not represent Australian biophysical processes well: our flora and fauna are unique and our soils are old and nutrient poor. In contrast, the National Carbon Accounting System (NCAS) is a world-class framework for estimating current carbon processes. By building NCAS expertise into an overseas model of soil and vegetation processes we can develop the capacity to increase our con ....Reengineering a dynamic vegetation model to explore the stability of Australian terrestrial carbon. Overseas models do not represent Australian biophysical processes well: our flora and fauna are unique and our soils are old and nutrient poor. In contrast, the National Carbon Accounting System (NCAS) is a world-class framework for estimating current carbon processes. By building NCAS expertise into an overseas model of soil and vegetation processes we can develop the capacity to increase our confidence in future projections of carbon and vegetation change. Our proposal, linking Universities, CSIRO and the Australian Greenhouse Office establishes a team that is internationally competitive. It will enhance local expertise and local model development to ensure national policy development is underpinned by world-class science.Read moreRead less
Complexity in climate impact assessment: a methodology to address extremes. It is something of a truism that the events and states of the changing environment that affect society tend to fall in the extremes. My goal is to develop a model-based methodology to characterize the extremes that are not usually predicted by climate models. Key extremes of importance to stakeholders in Australia and around the world include coastal flooding and fire. These events, in the context of regional climate var ....Complexity in climate impact assessment: a methodology to address extremes. It is something of a truism that the events and states of the changing environment that affect society tend to fall in the extremes. My goal is to develop a model-based methodology to characterize the extremes that are not usually predicted by climate models. Key extremes of importance to stakeholders in Australia and around the world include coastal flooding and fire. These events, in the context of regional climate variation, will act as test cases for the methodology. From this work, the likelihood of policy-relevant events in the future can be evaluated, with a robust assessment of the uncertainty.Read moreRead less