Assimilation of trace atmospheric constituents for climate (ATACC): Linking chemical weather and climate. Changes in atmospheric ozone and carbon dioxide affect many aspects of surface climate from changes in ultraviolet radiation (ozone) to long-term changes in temperature (carbon dioxide). Better mapping of these gases will help us understand, predict and manage these changes. For ozone, it will clarify the link between ozone and surface weather. For carbon dioxide, improved knowledge of the ....Assimilation of trace atmospheric constituents for climate (ATACC): Linking chemical weather and climate. Changes in atmospheric ozone and carbon dioxide affect many aspects of surface climate from changes in ultraviolet radiation (ozone) to long-term changes in temperature (carbon dioxide). Better mapping of these gases will help us understand, predict and manage these changes. For ozone, it will clarify the link between ozone and surface weather. For carbon dioxide, improved knowledge of the impact of tropical deforestation, land clearing and changes in the southern ocean on atmospheric CO2 will support sustainable development in Australia and our region. The project hence addresses the priority goal 'Responding to climate change and variability` under the National Research Priority 'An Environmentally Sustainable Australia`.
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Improving understanding of climate change and its impacts in Australia through detection and attribution of climate change. This research will quantify the contribution to Australian regional climate change due to greenhouse gases, which will assist policymakers in reaching decisions about policies on emission reductions or adaptation to greenhouse climate change. Improved estimates of uncertainties in future regional climate changes due to increasing greenhouse gases will allow better quantifi ....Improving understanding of climate change and its impacts in Australia through detection and attribution of climate change. This research will quantify the contribution to Australian regional climate change due to greenhouse gases, which will assist policymakers in reaching decisions about policies on emission reductions or adaptation to greenhouse climate change. Improved estimates of uncertainties in future regional climate changes due to increasing greenhouse gases will allow better quantification of their likely impacts, estimation of the costs or maximising any benefits from regional climate changes. Through collaboration with the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, this research enhances Australia's capabilities in diagnostic analysis of climate variability and change, and aids the development and evaluation of new Australian climate models. Read moreRead less
Responding to the threat of climate change: identifying effective strategies for the wheat industry of south-east Australia. This project will first evaluate the probable impacts of climatic change and variability on wheat production in southern Australia and will then assess the effectiveness of actual and potential adaptive management strategies designed to mitigate these impacts. The expected outcomes will include quantified impacts of future climate change and variability on wheat productio ....Responding to the threat of climate change: identifying effective strategies for the wheat industry of south-east Australia. This project will first evaluate the probable impacts of climatic change and variability on wheat production in southern Australia and will then assess the effectiveness of actual and potential adaptive management strategies designed to mitigate these impacts. The expected outcomes will include quantified impacts of future climate change and variability on wheat production in southern Australia, identification of regions at greater risk in the future and least likely to be viable in the longer run, and identification of effective adaptive management strategies designed to cope with these risks.Read moreRead less
Improving Projections of Regional Climate Change for Australia Using Detection and Attribution Studies. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded in 2001 that "most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations" and that "anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries". This project will reduce uncertainties in projections of future climate change for Australia. We will compare model-simulate ....Improving Projections of Regional Climate Change for Australia Using Detection and Attribution Studies. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded in 2001 that "most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations" and that "anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries". This project will reduce uncertainties in projections of future climate change for Australia. We will compare model-simulated climate changes during the twentieth century with observed changes globally and in the Australian region. These comparisons will be used with statistical modelling to estimate probability distributions for future changes in Australian climate.Read moreRead less
Reengineering a dynamic vegetation model to explore the stability of Australian terrestrial carbon. Overseas models do not represent Australian biophysical processes well: our flora and fauna are unique and our soils are old and nutrient poor. In contrast, the National Carbon Accounting System (NCAS) is a world-class framework for estimating current carbon processes. By building NCAS expertise into an overseas model of soil and vegetation processes we can develop the capacity to increase our con ....Reengineering a dynamic vegetation model to explore the stability of Australian terrestrial carbon. Overseas models do not represent Australian biophysical processes well: our flora and fauna are unique and our soils are old and nutrient poor. In contrast, the National Carbon Accounting System (NCAS) is a world-class framework for estimating current carbon processes. By building NCAS expertise into an overseas model of soil and vegetation processes we can develop the capacity to increase our confidence in future projections of carbon and vegetation change. Our proposal, linking Universities, CSIRO and the Australian Greenhouse Office establishes a team that is internationally competitive. It will enhance local expertise and local model development to ensure national policy development is underpinned by world-class science.Read moreRead less
Complexity in climate impact assessment: a methodology to address extremes. It is something of a truism that the events and states of the changing environment that affect society tend to fall in the extremes. My goal is to develop a model-based methodology to characterize the extremes that are not usually predicted by climate models. Key extremes of importance to stakeholders in Australia and around the world include coastal flooding and fire. These events, in the context of regional climate var ....Complexity in climate impact assessment: a methodology to address extremes. It is something of a truism that the events and states of the changing environment that affect society tend to fall in the extremes. My goal is to develop a model-based methodology to characterize the extremes that are not usually predicted by climate models. Key extremes of importance to stakeholders in Australia and around the world include coastal flooding and fire. These events, in the context of regional climate variation, will act as test cases for the methodology. From this work, the likelihood of policy-relevant events in the future can be evaluated, with a robust assessment of the uncertainty.Read moreRead less
Climate and health benefits of restoring tropical peat swamp forests. This project aims to investigate the climate and health benefits of restoring the tropical peat swamp forests. The project will integrate novel, field-based paleo-reconstruction of the historical conditions, satellite observations of temperature and rainfall, and high-resolution modelling of the regional climate processes under different restoration scenarios. It will use this information to determine how restoration activitie ....Climate and health benefits of restoring tropical peat swamp forests. This project aims to investigate the climate and health benefits of restoring the tropical peat swamp forests. The project will integrate novel, field-based paleo-reconstruction of the historical conditions, satellite observations of temperature and rainfall, and high-resolution modelling of the regional climate processes under different restoration scenarios. It will use this information to determine how restoration activities affect the regional climate, how changes in climate affect peatland fires and regional smoke haze, and how changes to regional climate and smoke haze affect human respiratory health and heat stress.Read moreRead less
Predicting soil loss from wind erosion, using an integrated, high resolution, land surface data assimilation-modelling system. Australia is an ancient, dry, continent. Soil losses from wind erosion are practically irreversible. Prevention of wind erosion, especially in agricultural areas, is a major challenge to agricultural communities and land management organisations. For continental and regional scale assessment of wind erosion potential, the high-resolution integrated wind erosion modelling ....Predicting soil loss from wind erosion, using an integrated, high resolution, land surface data assimilation-modelling system. Australia is an ancient, dry, continent. Soil losses from wind erosion are practically irreversible. Prevention of wind erosion, especially in agricultural areas, is a major challenge to agricultural communities and land management organisations. For continental and regional scale assessment of wind erosion potential, the high-resolution integrated wind erosion modelling system developed here is a powerful tool. The system will identify areas prone to soil erosion and provide a solid scientific basis for strategic and practical measures for wind erosion prevention. The proposal allows the CIs to continue to play a leading international role in this National Research Priority area.Read moreRead less
The capacity of forests to protect regional climate under global warming. The project plans to develop a new understanding of the capacity of forests to increase moisture recycling, which enhances cloud and precipitation processes and exerts a cooling influence on the land surface. Deforestation and climate change are major global challenges. The role of forests in the carbon cycle is well recognised. Less attention is given to their role in the energy and water cycles, and their capacity to reg ....The capacity of forests to protect regional climate under global warming. The project plans to develop a new understanding of the capacity of forests to increase moisture recycling, which enhances cloud and precipitation processes and exerts a cooling influence on the land surface. Deforestation and climate change are major global challenges. The role of forests in the carbon cycle is well recognised. Less attention is given to their role in the energy and water cycles, and their capacity to regulate regional climate. The project plans to apply an innovative land use-climate scenario modelling to quantify the impacts of deforestation and afforestation on the climate of northern Australia and south-east Asia under global warming. It also plans to evaluate the capacity of restoring forests to offset regional climate change, to inform regional land use planning and climate mitigation and adaptation.Read moreRead less