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Has rainfall become more variable or extreme? The trends and variability of global daily rainfall are uncertain. By tackling data shortcomings and the scaling issues that exist between observations and models, this project aims to produce the first well-constrained long-term assessment of the variability and trends in daily rainfall over land. Using extreme value analysis on the resulting data would allow the exploration of the sensitivity of rainfall extremes to grid resolution, interpolation m ....Has rainfall become more variable or extreme? The trends and variability of global daily rainfall are uncertain. By tackling data shortcomings and the scaling issues that exist between observations and models, this project aims to produce the first well-constrained long-term assessment of the variability and trends in daily rainfall over land. Using extreme value analysis on the resulting data would allow the exploration of the sensitivity of rainfall extremes to grid resolution, interpolation method and order of operation on an unprecedented grand scale. Ultimately, this means that improved return period estimates could be calculated for the types of events that could lead to flooding. Understanding how, where and why it rains is vital for enabling sound decisions to be made by our planners and policy-makers.Read moreRead less
What caused abrupt climate change events in the past and what can they tell us about the future? This project will improve our understanding of abrupt climate change in the past, present and future. It will dramatically enhance Australia's capacity to use climate models to assess the probability and associated consequences of abrupt climate change in the future.
How will climate change affect sub-daily precipitation? This project will examine changes in sub-daily precipitation due to climate change. It will improve our understanding of the mechanisms that cause the changes at regional and local scales. Regional climate change projections produced will be freely available, and at a spatial and temporal scales suitable for impacts and adaptation studies.
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE170100367
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$342,924.00
Summary
Decadal climate variability: Mechanisms, interactions and effects. This project aims to study the processes underlying decadal climate variability, through increasingly complex models, underpinned by observations. Climate variations on time scales of years, decades and longer affect Australia, with potentially devastating effects on agriculture, water supply, bushfires and health. Improved climate prediction on decadal time scales is urgently needed, but limited understanding of the system’s nat ....Decadal climate variability: Mechanisms, interactions and effects. This project aims to study the processes underlying decadal climate variability, through increasingly complex models, underpinned by observations. Climate variations on time scales of years, decades and longer affect Australia, with potentially devastating effects on agriculture, water supply, bushfires and health. Improved climate prediction on decadal time scales is urgently needed, but limited understanding of the system’s natural variability hampers progress. This knowledge will reduce uncertainty in near term climate projections, allowing more informed decision making about adaptation on the regional scale, particularly for sectors such as agriculture, health, water and ecosystem management (including bushfire control).Read moreRead less
Beyond the linear dynamics of the El Nino Southern Oscillation. This project will pioneer new climate models of the El Nino natural mode of climate variability, which will ultimately enable us to better predict seasonal weather fluctuation for Australia and improve our understanding of climate change in the tropical regions.
Cyclones, storm tracks and precipitation over the globe, and their sensitivity to climate change. The project will explore in detail the intimate connection across the globe between storms, storm tracks and precipitation and the changes in these key aspects of weather and climate. Expected outcomes are an improved understanding of trends and outlooks for southern Australian and European weather and precipitation.
Examining the vulnerability of ocean carbon biogeochemistry in a high CO2 world. Rising CO2 levels in the atmosphere from human activity is changing the biogeochemistry of the ocean, with large potential consequences on future atmospheric CO2. This work will explore these changes and will result in a more complete understanding of how the ocean will either accelerate or delay the increase in atmospheric CO2.