Helping Central Banks Measure Unobserved Variables Using Real-time Forecasts. The project addresses structural measurement problems confronted routinely by central bankers. The techniques developed, and the estimates provided, will aid directly the Partner Organisations (the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank) and other central banks in formulating monetary policy. The analysis will allow interest rates in Australia and elsewhere to be set with greater pre ....Helping Central Banks Measure Unobserved Variables Using Real-time Forecasts. The project addresses structural measurement problems confronted routinely by central bankers. The techniques developed, and the estimates provided, will aid directly the Partner Organisations (the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank) and other central banks in formulating monetary policy. The analysis will allow interest rates in Australia and elsewhere to be set with greater precision. The techniques developed in this project will facilitate the understanding and communication of monetary policy within the central banks concerned, and enhance communication of monetary policy strategy to the public.Read moreRead less
Australian Real Time Data: Construction, Analysis and Implications for Real Time Policy Making. This first comprehensive macroeconomic real time database for Australia recording the actual data available to policy makers at the time of making decisions will serve as a standard reference for accurate ex post macroeconomic policy evaluation and for accurate forecasts and decision making which are robust to data revisions. The free database will be of interest to Australian researchers, economists, ....Australian Real Time Data: Construction, Analysis and Implications for Real Time Policy Making. This first comprehensive macroeconomic real time database for Australia recording the actual data available to policy makers at the time of making decisions will serve as a standard reference for accurate ex post macroeconomic policy evaluation and for accurate forecasts and decision making which are robust to data revisions. The free database will be of interest to Australian researchers, economists, forecasters and policy makers. Readily applicable and interpretable forecasts of the business cycle and the current state of the Australian (and US) economy (e.g. likelihood of recessions or inflation) will be of direct relevance to Australian policy-makers in Government, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and to the Australian decision-makers. Read moreRead less
The US Interest Rate Conundrum and its Implications for Australia. The project generalises existing factor models of interest rates. The project will result in several benefits nationally as well as internationally. As U.S. interest rates and U.S. monetary policy in general are important determinants of interest rates in Australia, the project will lead to an improved understanding of the international mechanism linking interest rates. This will also provide a better framework in which to unders ....The US Interest Rate Conundrum and its Implications for Australia. The project generalises existing factor models of interest rates. The project will result in several benefits nationally as well as internationally. As U.S. interest rates and U.S. monetary policy in general are important determinants of interest rates in Australia, the project will lead to an improved understanding of the international mechanism linking interest rates. This will also provide a better framework in which to understand and monitor monetary policy in Australia. An important aspect of the project is the development of new testing procedures that improve upon existing nonparametric methods.Read moreRead less
Modelling the Transmission of International Monetary Policy Shocks: Implications for Australian Asset Markets. Three main outcomes of the project are as follows. First, the relative strengths of the transmission mechanisms linking monetary policy and asset markets will be better identified. This will lead to a better understanding of monetary policy thereby enabling the Reserve Bank to achieve its policy goals of inflation operating at or near the target rate, and for currency markets to exhibit ....Modelling the Transmission of International Monetary Policy Shocks: Implications for Australian Asset Markets. Three main outcomes of the project are as follows. First, the relative strengths of the transmission mechanisms linking monetary policy and asset markets will be better identified. This will lead to a better understanding of monetary policy thereby enabling the Reserve Bank to achieve its policy goals of inflation operating at or near the target rate, and for currency markets to exhibit stability. Second, a number of empirical puzzles relating to monetary policy and asset markets in general, that exist in the empirical literature, will be solved. Third, the project will lead to a number of international papers which will add to the international reputation of Australia as a leading research nation.Read moreRead less
A Principled Approach to Computer Simulation of Dynamic General Equilibrium Macroeconomic Models. In the last two decades a new generation of computer-intensive
modeling techniques has risen to prominence in macroeconomics. These
methods have broad policy applications, from public finance and
reserve bank operation to analysis of long-run productivity growth,
taxation reform, unemployment, international trade policy and natural
resource conservation. The size and complexity of these model ....A Principled Approach to Computer Simulation of Dynamic General Equilibrium Macroeconomic Models. In the last two decades a new generation of computer-intensive
modeling techniques has risen to prominence in macroeconomics. These
methods have broad policy applications, from public finance and
reserve bank operation to analysis of long-run productivity growth,
taxation reform, unemployment, international trade policy and natural
resource conservation. The size and complexity of these models means
that even computer-based techniques will rely for the foreseeable
future on efficient program design to solve them. The project will
construct a comprehensive set of solution techniques and software for
this class of macroeconomic models, including detailed mathematical
analysis on accuracy of model output.Read moreRead less