Helping Central Banks Measure Unobserved Variables Using Real-time Forecasts. The project addresses structural measurement problems confronted routinely by central bankers. The techniques developed, and the estimates provided, will aid directly the Partner Organisations (the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank) and other central banks in formulating monetary policy. The analysis will allow interest rates in Australia and elsewhere to be set with greater pre ....Helping Central Banks Measure Unobserved Variables Using Real-time Forecasts. The project addresses structural measurement problems confronted routinely by central bankers. The techniques developed, and the estimates provided, will aid directly the Partner Organisations (the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank) and other central banks in formulating monetary policy. The analysis will allow interest rates in Australia and elsewhere to be set with greater precision. The techniques developed in this project will facilitate the understanding and communication of monetary policy within the central banks concerned, and enhance communication of monetary policy strategy to the public.Read moreRead less
Australian Real Time Data: Construction, Analysis and Implications for Real Time Policy Making. This first comprehensive macroeconomic real time database for Australia recording the actual data available to policy makers at the time of making decisions will serve as a standard reference for accurate ex post macroeconomic policy evaluation and for accurate forecasts and decision making which are robust to data revisions. The free database will be of interest to Australian researchers, economists, ....Australian Real Time Data: Construction, Analysis and Implications for Real Time Policy Making. This first comprehensive macroeconomic real time database for Australia recording the actual data available to policy makers at the time of making decisions will serve as a standard reference for accurate ex post macroeconomic policy evaluation and for accurate forecasts and decision making which are robust to data revisions. The free database will be of interest to Australian researchers, economists, forecasters and policy makers. Readily applicable and interpretable forecasts of the business cycle and the current state of the Australian (and US) economy (e.g. likelihood of recessions or inflation) will be of direct relevance to Australian policy-makers in Government, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and to the Australian decision-makers. Read moreRead less
FINANCIAL (IN)SECURITY IN LATER LIFE: WOMEN, WORK , SUPERANNUATION AND AUSTRALIA'S RETIREMENT INCOME SYSTEM. An ageing population is expected to contribute to significant demographic, social and labour market shifts, which, together with fiscal stresses, will affect the future mix of state and private retirement income provisions. However, gender-based issues associated with these changes remain under-researched. Using a life-course approach qualitative methodologies will be used to explore inte ....FINANCIAL (IN)SECURITY IN LATER LIFE: WOMEN, WORK , SUPERANNUATION AND AUSTRALIA'S RETIREMENT INCOME SYSTEM. An ageing population is expected to contribute to significant demographic, social and labour market shifts, which, together with fiscal stresses, will affect the future mix of state and private retirement income provisions. However, gender-based issues associated with these changes remain under-researched. Using a life-course approach qualitative methodologies will be used to explore inter-relationships between: women's workforce participation, education, marital status, fertility, financial literacy; retirement incomes;concessions, benefits; and women's economic security in later years. The research will make a significant contribution to the development and implementation of retirement income policy and the debate on gender equity in the labour market. Read moreRead less
Evaluation of targeting rules for implementing monetary policy. Monetary policy plays a primary role in stabilising business cycle fluctuations and in mitigating the effects of large economic shocks. This research deals with key issues in the operation of monetary policy. Our econometric analysis will provide new evidence on the short term goals pursed by central banks and improve our understanding their trade-offs. One application of our results will be an improvement in the ability to measure ....Evaluation of targeting rules for implementing monetary policy. Monetary policy plays a primary role in stabilising business cycle fluctuations and in mitigating the effects of large economic shocks. This research deals with key issues in the operation of monetary policy. Our econometric analysis will provide new evidence on the short term goals pursed by central banks and improve our understanding their trade-offs. One application of our results will be an improvement in the ability to measure and evaluate the performance of central banks. Greater evidence on the objectives and constraints of central banks will increase public knowledge and understanding of monetary policy, leading to more effective policy. Read moreRead less
ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement and Its Impact on Australia-Vietnam Trade. The ASEAN+3 (China, Japan and Korea) free trade agreement endorsed by ASEAN Leaders in 2001 poses a serious trade diversion threat to Australia's goods and services trade to ASEAN and North Asia (reaching $33.9b and $85.0b respectively in 2001, see DFAT 2003). No research on this has been done or reported. The project, with Vietnam Institute for Trade collaboration, uses new analytical and empirical approaches to investigate ....ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement and Its Impact on Australia-Vietnam Trade. The ASEAN+3 (China, Japan and Korea) free trade agreement endorsed by ASEAN Leaders in 2001 poses a serious trade diversion threat to Australia's goods and services trade to ASEAN and North Asia (reaching $33.9b and $85.0b respectively in 2001, see DFAT 2003). No research on this has been done or reported. The project, with Vietnam Institute for Trade collaboration, uses new analytical and empirical approaches to investigate this FTA and its implications to Australia's trade to a major ASEAN country, namely Vietnam, where 2002 trade reached $2.8b and Australia's global companies (eg. ANZ, Telstra, RMIT) currently have large operation.Read moreRead less
Modelling Hidden Processes which Drive Economic and Financial Systems. The ability to forecast complex economic systems is crucial to benefit from peak performance, and to prepare for and safeguard against downturn. This project aims to make significant discoveries concerning hidden processes which drive such systems, using rigorous, cutting-edge, flexible econometric methods. Resulting outcomes will be improved understanding of - and ability to forecast - important economic phenomena such as vo ....Modelling Hidden Processes which Drive Economic and Financial Systems. The ability to forecast complex economic systems is crucial to benefit from peak performance, and to prepare for and safeguard against downturn. This project aims to make significant discoveries concerning hidden processes which drive such systems, using rigorous, cutting-edge, flexible econometric methods. Resulting outcomes will be improved understanding of - and ability to forecast - important economic phenomena such as volatility in price series, extremal (risky) behaviour of financial systems, and turning points of the business cycle. Discoveries will be disseminated through published papers and presentations at a major international conference. Ongoing e-research links with France will also be established.Read moreRead less
Increasing Globalisation and its Economic Implications. This project will focus on globalisation and its economic implications. We will: (a) propose definitions and measure of the ?degree of globalization", (b) examine its relationship with the degree of uncertainty facing an economy, (c) study the effects of globalisation and uncertainty on productivity growth, (d) examine the effects of uncertainty on the economy and (f) provide empirical applications for the Australian economy. Our project wi ....Increasing Globalisation and its Economic Implications. This project will focus on globalisation and its economic implications. We will: (a) propose definitions and measure of the ?degree of globalization", (b) examine its relationship with the degree of uncertainty facing an economy, (c) study the effects of globalisation and uncertainty on productivity growth, (d) examine the effects of uncertainty on the economy and (f) provide empirical applications for the Australian economy. Our project will provide an important, innovative and comprehensive examination of globalization and its economic effects. In addition to making novel theoretical and empirical contributions, it will also facilitate meaningful analyses of policy issues in Australia.Read moreRead less
Metal injection moulding of aluminium. The aim of this project is to develop a metal injection moulding (MIM) system for aluminium by employing point defect engineering to enhance the solid state sintering of aluminium. This study will also incorporate an econometric analysis of the potential for specific aluminium MIM parts. Using this novel, multidisciplinary approach, the market definition and the technology development will occur concurrently. The outcome will be an aluminium MIM system and ....Metal injection moulding of aluminium. The aim of this project is to develop a metal injection moulding (MIM) system for aluminium by employing point defect engineering to enhance the solid state sintering of aluminium. This study will also incorporate an econometric analysis of the potential for specific aluminium MIM parts. Using this novel, multidisciplinary approach, the market definition and the technology development will occur concurrently. The outcome will be an aluminium MIM system and a new business opportunity for a Queensland manufacturing company in a market that is growing at 10-25% per year and is expected to exceed $US1 billion in 2003.Read moreRead less
International linkages between financial and real economy cycles. This project will develop empirical multivariate models of business cycles for different countries, and will study how they are linked via international financial markets. The significance of the project is that the models will integrate previous work done on financial-real economy links in single country settings, and it will explicitly study the effects of disequilibrium in international financial markets (such as overvaluation ....International linkages between financial and real economy cycles. This project will develop empirical multivariate models of business cycles for different countries, and will study how they are linked via international financial markets. The significance of the project is that the models will integrate previous work done on financial-real economy links in single country settings, and it will explicitly study the effects of disequilibrium in international financial markets (such as overvaluation of foreign currency) on individual economies. The project will determine the appropriate domestic monetary policy response to such shocks, and the potential for forecasting both the advent of such shocks and their impact on individual economies.Read moreRead less
Theoretically-motivated Long-term Internet Network Adoption Based on Short Time-series: Understanding the Diffusion of an Enabling Network Technology. A recent Government policy concerns innovation as a driver of long-term industry growth and a major determinant of global competitiveness. In particular, the Internet is a ?backbone? infrastructure for the conduct e-commerce, and enables efficiency benefits and product innovations to be realized in other sectors, e.g., banking, finance, health and ....Theoretically-motivated Long-term Internet Network Adoption Based on Short Time-series: Understanding the Diffusion of an Enabling Network Technology. A recent Government policy concerns innovation as a driver of long-term industry growth and a major determinant of global competitiveness. In particular, the Internet is a ?backbone? infrastructure for the conduct e-commerce, and enables efficiency benefits and product innovations to be realized in other sectors, e.g., banking, finance, health and tourism. This study estimates the network effect critical to forecasting Internet growth. Moreover, a structural model enhances understanding of underlying Internet dynamics and impacts on general economic conditions. Importantly, methods developed here apply to any network industry, and many non-network industries characterised by strong complementarity relations.Read moreRead less