Economic policy when interest rates are zero. This Project studies economic policy when interest rates are zero. Low interest rate environments constrain monetary policy because central banks cannot lower rates to raise demand. We exploit recent international experience with zero rates to understand why new policies have had mixed success. We argue different outcomes across countries arise because of different degrees of credibility and familiarity with new policy initiatives. We provide empiric ....Economic policy when interest rates are zero. This Project studies economic policy when interest rates are zero. Low interest rate environments constrain monetary policy because central banks cannot lower rates to raise demand. We exploit recent international experience with zero rates to understand why new policies have had mixed success. We argue different outcomes across countries arise because of different degrees of credibility and familiarity with new policy initiatives. We provide empirical support for this view and study the consequences of imperfectly credible policy. We characterize how monetary policy (conventional and unconventional) and fiscal policy can be used to greatest effect in low interest rate environments and quantify the welfare implications for Australia. Read moreRead less
Time-consistent macroeconomic policy in nonlinear models. Efforts to use fiscal policy for macro-stabilisation have led to elevated debt levels and possible default in many countries. This project examines the appropriate design of fiscal policy and its implications for debt over the business cycle.
Monetary and Fiscal Policy under Imperfect Knowledge. This project lays out an agenda exploring the consequences of imperfect knowledge for macroeconomic dynamics and stabilisation policy. Learning dynamics are central to understanding aggregate fluctuations in periods during which agents have limited information about their environment, as has been the case during and after the Global Financial Crisis. The agenda comprises two lines of inquiry. The first develops theoretical issues relating to ....Monetary and Fiscal Policy under Imperfect Knowledge. This project lays out an agenda exploring the consequences of imperfect knowledge for macroeconomic dynamics and stabilisation policy. Learning dynamics are central to understanding aggregate fluctuations in periods during which agents have limited information about their environment, as has been the case during and after the Global Financial Crisis. The agenda comprises two lines of inquiry. The first develops theoretical issues relating to the design and implementation of monetary and fiscal policy under imperfect knowledge. The second adduces empirical evidence on the classes of possible beliefs that any macroeconomic model should account for.Read moreRead less
Optimal policy in the global liquidity trap. The recent global financial crisis has led most central banks in developed economies to reduce their policy interest rates to unprecedentedly low levels. As a result, the liquidity trap has now become a serious concern internationally. This project will derive the optimal monetary and fiscal policy in the global liquidity trap. It will also show how a shock in one country affects other countries and propose tools for improving the empirical fit of the ....Optimal policy in the global liquidity trap. The recent global financial crisis has led most central banks in developed economies to reduce their policy interest rates to unprecedentedly low levels. As a result, the liquidity trap has now become a serious concern internationally. This project will derive the optimal monetary and fiscal policy in the global liquidity trap. It will also show how a shock in one country affects other countries and propose tools for improving the empirical fit of the models in a liquidity trap. This project will become the foundation for the discussion of policy options in the global liquidity trap.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE150100708
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$352,000.00
Summary
Understanding the Linkage of Public and Private Risk in the Global Economy. This project aims to develop a richly detailed model of the global financial system including both public and private institutions. By treating the system as a network of interconnected entities, this project aims to introduce new techniques to map and to trace the evolution of risk in the financial system, to forecast the spillover of risk between entities in the system, and to conduct counterfactual analysis of potenti ....Understanding the Linkage of Public and Private Risk in the Global Economy. This project aims to develop a richly detailed model of the global financial system including both public and private institutions. By treating the system as a network of interconnected entities, this project aims to introduce new techniques to map and to trace the evolution of risk in the financial system, to forecast the spillover of risk between entities in the system, and to conduct counterfactual analysis of potential policy measures. This project will investigate the link between spillover intensity and the existing research on extreme events in financial data. By studying how the recent crisis spread through the global financial system, this project aims to enhance our ability to foresee future crises and to mitigate their impact and costs.Read moreRead less
Distorted Beliefs and Asset Price Disconnect Puzzles. Asset price booms and busts have broad ranging implications for households. Despite this, models used for policy analysis struggle to explain asset prices and their implications for the macroeconomy. This project will deliver frontier macro-finance research to inform academics and policymakers on how to model asset price booms and busts, to explain why equity and house price falls appear to have small versus large effects, and how to design e ....Distorted Beliefs and Asset Price Disconnect Puzzles. Asset price booms and busts have broad ranging implications for households. Despite this, models used for policy analysis struggle to explain asset prices and their implications for the macroeconomy. This project will deliver frontier macro-finance research to inform academics and policymakers on how to model asset price booms and busts, to explain why equity and house price falls appear to have small versus large effects, and how to design effective policy responses. Led by internationally recognized experts in macroeconomics, this research proposal is perfectly positioned to deliver scientific peer-reviewed research and embed outcomes through evidenced partnerships with the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Federal Department of Treasury.Read moreRead less
Large dynamic time-varying models for structural macroeconomic inference. This project aims to broaden the range of macroeconomic models that have an integrated capacity for both greater realism and efficiency in analysis. This approach will be applied to two contexts at the forefront of current macroeconomic research, the effects of noisy productivity signals on business cycles and the effects of fiscal policy shocks. Flexible macro-econometric models underpin accurate inference by economists ....Large dynamic time-varying models for structural macroeconomic inference. This project aims to broaden the range of macroeconomic models that have an integrated capacity for both greater realism and efficiency in analysis. This approach will be applied to two contexts at the forefront of current macroeconomic research, the effects of noisy productivity signals on business cycles and the effects of fiscal policy shocks. Flexible macro-econometric models underpin accurate inference by economists and policymakers and the project outputs should provide widespread and significant benefits by improving policy and boosting Australia’s comparative advantage.Read moreRead less
Nowcasting and Interpreting the Australian Economy. This project aims to investigate methods for nowcasting and interpreting the Australian economy. This is determining the current state of the economy and the factors contributing to it.
This project expects to generate new knowledge on how unconventional, new, data sources and innovative methods can be used to in nowcasting and how the Australian economy can be modelled.
The expected outcomes include timely new indicators of the state of the ec ....Nowcasting and Interpreting the Australian Economy. This project aims to investigate methods for nowcasting and interpreting the Australian economy. This is determining the current state of the economy and the factors contributing to it.
This project expects to generate new knowledge on how unconventional, new, data sources and innovative methods can be used to in nowcasting and how the Australian economy can be modelled.
The expected outcomes include timely new indicators of the state of the economy, and the factors contributing to it. This should provide significant benefits through informing the conduct of Australian macroeconomic policy, as the appropriate policy response depends not only on knowing the current state of the economy but understanding the economic factors underlying it.
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The Role of a Central Bank’s Balance Sheet in Shaping the Economy. In response to the global financial crisis, the world’s major central banks cut their rates to near zero and implemented untested unconventional monetary policies, significantly expanding the size and composition of their balance sheets. More than a decade later, the Reserve Bank of Australia is considering similar balance sheet policies. This proposal aims to develop various frameworks that can be used to simulate and evaluate w ....The Role of a Central Bank’s Balance Sheet in Shaping the Economy. In response to the global financial crisis, the world’s major central banks cut their rates to near zero and implemented untested unconventional monetary policies, significantly expanding the size and composition of their balance sheets. More than a decade later, the Reserve Bank of Australia is considering similar balance sheet policies. This proposal aims to develop various frameworks that can be used to simulate and evaluate when and how to eventually undo unconventional monetary policies in order to prevent a prolonged recession. Thus this research proposal will contribute to the current Australian monetary policy debate while providing some insights on how best to implement such policies, improving the living standards of Australians.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE210100137
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$347,889.00
Summary
Global Economic Uncertainty, Liquidity and Monetary Policy in Australia. This project aims to analyse the impact of global trade and financial uncertainty on the Australian economy and provide quantifiable policy prescriptions. This project expects to generate new knowledge in the area of monetary and macroeconomic policy using an innovative approach with search and matching frictions, to formalise how investors respond to higher uncertainty given their liquidity requirements. The intended outco ....Global Economic Uncertainty, Liquidity and Monetary Policy in Australia. This project aims to analyse the impact of global trade and financial uncertainty on the Australian economy and provide quantifiable policy prescriptions. This project expects to generate new knowledge in the area of monetary and macroeconomic policy using an innovative approach with search and matching frictions, to formalise how investors respond to higher uncertainty given their liquidity requirements. The intended outcomes of the project include offering a new theory with the potential to guide future research and novel quantitative application to Australian macroeconomic data. This should provide significant insights for institutions such as the Reserve Bank of Australia and benefits through the design of policy.Read moreRead less