Computing probabilities of theories where these probabilities vary over time with applications in macroeconomics. This project will present a method to produce empirically based policy advice that accounts for the changing economic environment and that allows for a range of assumptions about how the economy works. The research and training will place Australia at the forefront of empirical macroeconomic research and strengthen international research networks. Policy making will be improved as: i ....Computing probabilities of theories where these probabilities vary over time with applications in macroeconomics. This project will present a method to produce empirically based policy advice that accounts for the changing economic environment and that allows for a range of assumptions about how the economy works. The research and training will place Australia at the forefront of empirical macroeconomic research and strengthen international research networks. Policy making will be improved as: it will use information that is more robust to false assumptions; it will quickly incorporate new information; and we will understand better why certain policies did or did not work at different times in the past. The research will impact upon other sciences such as physics and engineering that use the same underlying tools far more than do economists.Read moreRead less
Estimation of the continuous piecewise linear model and macroeconomic applications. Relationships between economic variables are often characterised by non-linearities. This project develops a method to analyse a type of non-linearity that is frequently encountered in economics and uses this method to study four specific applications concerning the dynamics of inflation, growth, and the exchange rate.
Technological innovation, trade liberalization, unemployment, and policy design. Australia, like all economies, is heavily influenced by technological changes and shifting trade patterns. Understanding these influences, and the impact they have on the distribution of income, the unemployment rate, and the job mix, is very important for the design of appropriate policy initiatives. The proposed research aims to achieve exactly this by developing a mathematical model which incorporates technologic ....Technological innovation, trade liberalization, unemployment, and policy design. Australia, like all economies, is heavily influenced by technological changes and shifting trade patterns. Understanding these influences, and the impact they have on the distribution of income, the unemployment rate, and the job mix, is very important for the design of appropriate policy initiatives. The proposed research aims to achieve exactly this by developing a mathematical model which incorporates technological change, trade, and unemployment. The model will be used to analyse the effects of these changes and, thus, to design optimal policy. The results from this project should also stimulate policy discussions both within Australia and abroad - enriching academic relations between domestic and international universities.Read moreRead less
Nonlinear Econometric Modelling: A Complex Systems Perspective. It is becoming increasingly accepted that economic systems are both complex and adaptive. However, this introduces a range of problems in constructing, estimating and testing economic models using time series data. In this project, this problem will be addressed through the formulation and implementation of a new methodology and associated techniques. These techniques will allow a researcher to use information obtained from a set o ....Nonlinear Econometric Modelling: A Complex Systems Perspective. It is becoming increasingly accepted that economic systems are both complex and adaptive. However, this introduces a range of problems in constructing, estimating and testing economic models using time series data. In this project, this problem will be addressed through the formulation and implementation of a new methodology and associated techniques. These techniques will allow a researcher to use information obtained from a set of nonlinearity tests to determine which type of nonlinear model provides the best representation of a data generating mechanism. Selected high frequency financial and macroeconomic data (for the US and Australia) will be used in the study. This research is intended to change the direction and emphasis of econometric modelling and promises to have a fundamental impact on forecasting and policy evaluation methods.
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From Periphery to Central: the Politics of China's Central Banking Reform and the Building of a Financial Infrastructure in an Age of Transition. China's rapid economic growth and gradual integration with the international system, in particular the increasingly strong economic links between Australia and China, means Australia now has a big stake in China's financial and economic stability. By explaining the dynamics of China's central banking reform, monetary policy and banking reform since 197 ....From Periphery to Central: the Politics of China's Central Banking Reform and the Building of a Financial Infrastructure in an Age of Transition. China's rapid economic growth and gradual integration with the international system, in particular the increasingly strong economic links between Australia and China, means Australia now has a big stake in China's financial and economic stability. By explaining the dynamics of China's central banking reform, monetary policy and banking reform since 1979, this project will significantly enhance our capacity to interpret monetary policy management and financial development in China, to support our commitment to states in the Asia Pacific region that are dealing with economic reforms and transition, and more importantly, to exert influence on the desired direction of change in China through engagement with the Chinese monetary authority.Read moreRead less
An Improved Framework for Analysing the Fiscal Implications of Population Ageing. The Commonwealth Government's 'National Strategy for an Ageing Australia' explicitly acknowledged the potential for intergenerational conflict in Australia as relatively fewer young people must provide for the consumption of a growing proportion of retired people. The Intergenerational Report (IGR) in 2002 was an important step in national planning to avoid such a conflict. The proposed project seeks to address maj ....An Improved Framework for Analysing the Fiscal Implications of Population Ageing. The Commonwealth Government's 'National Strategy for an Ageing Australia' explicitly acknowledged the potential for intergenerational conflict in Australia as relatively fewer young people must provide for the consumption of a growing proportion of retired people. The Intergenerational Report (IGR) in 2002 was an important step in national planning to avoid such a conflict. The proposed project seeks to address major shortcomings in the IGR and provide an improved framework for future IGRs. The project addresses two Priority Goals within the Designated National Research Priority 2. These are: 'Ageing well, ageing productively' and 'strengthening Australia's social and economic fabric'.Read moreRead less
How does the Structure of Government, in Particular the Extent of Fiscal Decentralisation, Affect Long Term Economic Performance in Australia? The research analyses how Australia should best structure its government to maximise long-term economic performance in terms of economic growth and the optimal provision of public goods such as health, education and other public infrastructure. The optimal division of revenue raising and spending responsibilities between the federal government, State gove ....How does the Structure of Government, in Particular the Extent of Fiscal Decentralisation, Affect Long Term Economic Performance in Australia? The research analyses how Australia should best structure its government to maximise long-term economic performance in terms of economic growth and the optimal provision of public goods such as health, education and other public infrastructure. The optimal division of revenue raising and spending responsibilities between the federal government, State governments and other sub-national bodies like city and regional councils will be rigorously assessed from an economic perspective. The research will lead to recommendations regarding improvements in the structure of Australia's government sector, particularly the extent and nature of fiscal decentralisation, capable of improving productivity and future living standards.Read moreRead less
How does alcohol sponsorship of sport affect drinking behaviour and attitudes in at risk youth? Implications for public policy and the sport industry. This project responds to national and international research priorities by examining the controversial association between sponsorship of sport by alcohol brands and consumption behaviour in target youth and sportspeople. The research is large scale and multidisciplinary, and will impact policy development and the business of sport in Australia.
The impact of small business policy systems on small firm innovation and competitiveness in critical industry sectors. This research will examine the proposition that small business policy systems affect the structure and strategy of SMEs and in turn the sectors within which SMEs innovate and specialise. It will involve an analysis of SME policy systems; sectors of SME specialisation based on patent data, annual reports and firm web sites; and a longitudinal study of the strategy and structure o ....The impact of small business policy systems on small firm innovation and competitiveness in critical industry sectors. This research will examine the proposition that small business policy systems affect the structure and strategy of SMEs and in turn the sectors within which SMEs innovate and specialise. It will involve an analysis of SME policy systems; sectors of SME specialisation based on patent data, annual reports and firm web sites; and a longitudinal study of the strategy and structure of 29 case study firms in 3 sectors in 3 countries based on in-depth interviews and focus groups. Findings will provide a basis for improved policy advice concerning the mechanisms for encouraging small firm innovation and competitiveness in critical sectors.Read moreRead less
The role of the front line in welfare to work. This project aims to examine the front-line in Australia's primary site of welfare reform - the Job Network. Developed within the genre of street-level policy research, the project intends to examine that point of the policy process where actual outcomes are generated - a site which is largely overlooked in policy research, but which is integral to a comprehensive understanding of how policy works. From the perspective of the long-term unemployed, t ....The role of the front line in welfare to work. This project aims to examine the front-line in Australia's primary site of welfare reform - the Job Network. Developed within the genre of street-level policy research, the project intends to examine that point of the policy process where actual outcomes are generated - a site which is largely overlooked in policy research, but which is integral to a comprehensive understanding of how policy works. From the perspective of the long-term unemployed, the research will explore what works in the relationship between clients and their case managers. It will also explore the experiences of engagement and re-engagement with employment as a consequence of Job Network assistance.Read moreRead less