Large dynamic time-varying models for structural macroeconomic inference. This project aims to broaden the range of macroeconomic models that have an integrated capacity for both greater realism and efficiency in analysis. This approach will be applied to two contexts at the forefront of current macroeconomic research, the effects of noisy productivity signals on business cycles and the effects of fiscal policy shocks. Flexible macro-econometric models underpin accurate inference by economists ....Large dynamic time-varying models for structural macroeconomic inference. This project aims to broaden the range of macroeconomic models that have an integrated capacity for both greater realism and efficiency in analysis. This approach will be applied to two contexts at the forefront of current macroeconomic research, the effects of noisy productivity signals on business cycles and the effects of fiscal policy shocks. Flexible macro-econometric models underpin accurate inference by economists and policymakers and the project outputs should provide widespread and significant benefits by improving policy and boosting Australia’s comparative advantage.Read moreRead less
The Role of a Central Bank’s Balance Sheet in Shaping the Economy. In response to the global financial crisis, the world’s major central banks cut their rates to near zero and implemented untested unconventional monetary policies, significantly expanding the size and composition of their balance sheets. More than a decade later, the Reserve Bank of Australia is considering similar balance sheet policies. This proposal aims to develop various frameworks that can be used to simulate and evaluate w ....The Role of a Central Bank’s Balance Sheet in Shaping the Economy. In response to the global financial crisis, the world’s major central banks cut their rates to near zero and implemented untested unconventional monetary policies, significantly expanding the size and composition of their balance sheets. More than a decade later, the Reserve Bank of Australia is considering similar balance sheet policies. This proposal aims to develop various frameworks that can be used to simulate and evaluate when and how to eventually undo unconventional monetary policies in order to prevent a prolonged recession. Thus this research proposal will contribute to the current Australian monetary policy debate while providing some insights on how best to implement such policies, improving the living standards of Australians.Read moreRead less
Productivity, growth and unemployment in economies with frictions. This project aims to examine decisions driving productivity, growth, and unemployment in macroeconomies with frictions. It examines how government (fiscal, monetary, and education) policies determine these decisions, and identifies the best configurations of these policies. It will construct dynamic general equilibrium models of economies to analyse the causal structure behind productivity changes, growth and unemployment. It wil ....Productivity, growth and unemployment in economies with frictions. This project aims to examine decisions driving productivity, growth, and unemployment in macroeconomies with frictions. It examines how government (fiscal, monetary, and education) policies determine these decisions, and identifies the best configurations of these policies. It will construct dynamic general equilibrium models of economies to analyse the causal structure behind productivity changes, growth and unemployment. It will conduct quantitative experiments using simulations, to estimate optimal government policy design settings. This project expects to identify policies that promote productivity, growth and employment.Read moreRead less
Closing the Gap Between Theory and Data in Macroeconometrics. This project aims to bring econometric models (the empirical vehicle for inference) and economic models (the theory) closer together. A new model is intended to be proposed that will address a significant issue with the interpretation of the outputs of the econometric models. As a first contribution, the project is expected to develop the model and an inferential framework for this model using probability theory on manifolds. In a sec ....Closing the Gap Between Theory and Data in Macroeconometrics. This project aims to bring econometric models (the empirical vehicle for inference) and economic models (the theory) closer together. A new model is intended to be proposed that will address a significant issue with the interpretation of the outputs of the econometric models. As a first contribution, the project is expected to develop the model and an inferential framework for this model using probability theory on manifolds. In a second contribution, it is expected to construct an algorithm to permit inference leading to outputs useful to policy analysts. The model is intended to be parsimonious, which facilitates the development of a time-varying version to allow the model to evolve with the economy and provide better policy guidance.Read moreRead less
Supporting Entry and Growth of Australian Businesses via Tax and Transfers. This project aims to characterise the optimal tax treatment of business income for insurance and efficiency purposes. Using new data for Australia, the project expects to first identify key determinants of businesses creation, growth and exit, before and after COVID-19. In light of those determinants, the project expects to develop original macroeconomic models integrating firm dynamics into optimal taxation frameworks. ....Supporting Entry and Growth of Australian Businesses via Tax and Transfers. This project aims to characterise the optimal tax treatment of business income for insurance and efficiency purposes. Using new data for Australia, the project expects to first identify key determinants of businesses creation, growth and exit, before and after COVID-19. In light of those determinants, the project expects to develop original macroeconomic models integrating firm dynamics into optimal taxation frameworks. Expected outcomes include formulating fiscal policies that provide adequate stimulus to businesses, by balancing public insurance and income inequality. This should deliver evidence-based inputs to promote Australia's post-pandemic recovery, through the design of a fairer and more efficient business tax and transfer system.Read moreRead less
Talent Mismatch: Evidence from Australian Administrative Tax Records. The project aims to study the skill composition of the Australian workforce. Changes in the macroeconomic and technology environments make it hard to predict skill shortage. The project expects to develop macroeconomic models quantifying skill-mismatch of university graduates, identify sources of mismatch, highlight gender and generational differences, and estimate associated costs to Australia. The expected outcomes are to he ....Talent Mismatch: Evidence from Australian Administrative Tax Records. The project aims to study the skill composition of the Australian workforce. Changes in the macroeconomic and technology environments make it hard to predict skill shortage. The project expects to develop macroeconomic models quantifying skill-mismatch of university graduates, identify sources of mismatch, highlight gender and generational differences, and estimate associated costs to Australia. The expected outcomes are to help shape policy recommendations on the funding of tertiary education in a changing economic climate. This should provide significant benefits to Australians, as policies shaping the tertiary education system affect individual income and the aggregate economy by determining labour supply and taxpayers' financial burden.Read moreRead less
Assessing the national productivity impacts of chronic ill health. The project aims to address one of the biggest gaps in health and productivity research by designing a novel composite national metric that will rank lost productivity due to chronic illness The project brings together tax/transfer modelling, health modelling and epidemiological modelling specialists to develop a highly innovative microsimulation model: Health&WorkMOD to then quantify the costs of health-related productivity loss ....Assessing the national productivity impacts of chronic ill health. The project aims to address one of the biggest gaps in health and productivity research by designing a novel composite national metric that will rank lost productivity due to chronic illness The project brings together tax/transfer modelling, health modelling and epidemiological modelling specialists to develop a highly innovative microsimulation model: Health&WorkMOD to then quantify the costs of health-related productivity loss. The proposed model, an international first, will be a powerful tool to comprehensively model the cost impacts of illness and simulate policy options related to health and productivity. This will provide answers to critical policy questions for government with potential significant economic benefits.Read moreRead less
Transforming tobacco policy to deliver societal benefits. This project aims to develop new regulatory options for tobacco to minimise the legal market while avoiding the adverse societal and economic impacts of transferring consumer demand to illegal tobacco products. It addresses a significant current concern about a growing illegal tobacco market and seeks to improve understanding of the impact of tobacco control policies on the illegal market, and the societal impacts. The project also seeks ....Transforming tobacco policy to deliver societal benefits. This project aims to develop new regulatory options for tobacco to minimise the legal market while avoiding the adverse societal and economic impacts of transferring consumer demand to illegal tobacco products. It addresses a significant current concern about a growing illegal tobacco market and seeks to improve understanding of the impact of tobacco control policies on the illegal market, and the societal impacts. The project also seeks to draw insights from illicit drug policy to understand potential consequences of greater restrictions on the legal tobacco market. The expected outcomes include an enhanced monitoring system for illicit tobacco and policy recommendations to achieve government goals of reducing smoking rates.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE230101131
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$458,039.00
Summary
Understanding drivers and deterrents of Australia's illicit tobacco market. As Australia implements policies that reduce the availability and affordability of tobacco, demand for illicit tobacco is likely to grow. This research aims to generate new knowledge about the drivers and deterrents of demand for illicit tobacco through three inter-related projects. Expected outcomes include a comprehensive understanding of factors influencing Australians’ demand for illicit tobacco, and expert-informed ....Understanding drivers and deterrents of Australia's illicit tobacco market. As Australia implements policies that reduce the availability and affordability of tobacco, demand for illicit tobacco is likely to grow. This research aims to generate new knowledge about the drivers and deterrents of demand for illicit tobacco through three inter-related projects. Expected outcomes include a comprehensive understanding of factors influencing Australians’ demand for illicit tobacco, and expert-informed policy recommendations to reduce demand for and deter use of illicit tobacco. With no substantive Australian research on this topic for more than 15 years, this research will be essential to reduce the impacts of the illicit tobacco market, including substantial losses in tax revenue and the funding of organised crime.Read moreRead less
Understanding macroeconomic fluctuations with unobserved networks. Whilst empirical evidence suggests that firm-level shocks can have large aggregate effects, via network connections, macroeconomic policies have mostly an aggregate nature. This project aims to build a new framework to disentangle aggregate shocks from shocks to individual units. The major innovations are i) to infer the network from the data and ii) to jointly estimate aggregate factors and network effects. Expected outcomes are ....Understanding macroeconomic fluctuations with unobserved networks. Whilst empirical evidence suggests that firm-level shocks can have large aggregate effects, via network connections, macroeconomic policies have mostly an aggregate nature. This project aims to build a new framework to disentangle aggregate shocks from shocks to individual units. The major innovations are i) to infer the network from the data and ii) to jointly estimate aggregate factors and network effects. Expected outcomes are i) measures of systemic risk and ii) a theoretical framework to study the optimality of aggregate versus sectoral stabilization policies. Benefits include a better understanding of macroeconomic fluctuations in Australia and proposed economic policies to mitigate large and persistent declines in employment and GDP.Read moreRead less