Improved Monte Carlo Methods for Estimation, Optimisation and Counting. The project will benefit the Australian society by building the theoretical and methodological foundations for the next generation of Monte Carlo techniques. The advancement of the knowledge in this area will provide important tools for solving complex estimation, optimisation and counting problems in engineering, statistics, computer science, mathematics and the physical and life sciences. As a result it will generate a com ....Improved Monte Carlo Methods for Estimation, Optimisation and Counting. The project will benefit the Australian society by building the theoretical and methodological foundations for the next generation of Monte Carlo techniques. The advancement of the knowledge in this area will provide important tools for solving complex estimation, optimisation and counting problems in engineering, statistics, computer science, mathematics and the physical and life sciences. As a result it will generate a competitive advantage for various sections of the Australian industry, including telecommunications, biotechnology and finance. The project will enable Australian researchers to continue to work at the forefront of this fast moving and exciting area of international research.Read moreRead less
Stochastic modelling of spatiotemporal nonlinear diffusion processes with multifractal characteristics. This research is relevant to solute transport and plume evolution in heterogeneous media. Detailed modelling of these processes is computer-intensive, while the diffusion models of this project offer a more economical alternative. Our study will also benefit the research on the salinity problem. Excessive demand for irrigation water to support agricultural production has stretched freshwater a ....Stochastic modelling of spatiotemporal nonlinear diffusion processes with multifractal characteristics. This research is relevant to solute transport and plume evolution in heterogeneous media. Detailed modelling of these processes is computer-intensive, while the diffusion models of this project offer a more economical alternative. Our study will also benefit the research on the salinity problem. Excessive demand for irrigation water to support agricultural production has stretched freshwater aquifers beyond their long-term yield. Large areas of land have been lost to saltwater intrusion. This proposal will provide suitable tools to predict the level and movement of saltwater in the aquifers. Application to the development of management strategies would bring direct benefit to coastal areas where salinity is a sustainability issue.Read moreRead less
Stochastic modelling and analysis of spatio-temporal processes with fractal characteristics. Interest has grown in recent years on the derivation of fractal models to represent certain physical phenomena such as diffusion and transport in porous media, oceanic and atmospheric turbulence, climatology, etc. This project focuses on the phenomenon of diffusion on domains with multifractal geometry. Recent advances in harmonic analysis on fractals and our own development of fractional generalized ran ....Stochastic modelling and analysis of spatio-temporal processes with fractal characteristics. Interest has grown in recent years on the derivation of fractal models to represent certain physical phenomena such as diffusion and transport in porous media, oceanic and atmospheric turbulence, climatology, etc. This project focuses on the phenomenon of diffusion on domains with multifractal geometry. Recent advances in harmonic analysis on fractals and our own development of fractional generalized random fields allow us to formulate a comprehensive program to tackle some key problems including modeling, processing and statistical estimation of fractional diffusion. Advances made in this program will in turn benefit the developments in related scientific fields.Read moreRead less
The improvement of climate change investigations by developing and applying innovative evolutionary subset time series modelling using semi-parametric sparse-patterned approaches. With an estimated US$6.98 trillion loss indicated in the Stern review, severe climate change will make world climate conditions harsher and more likely include large natural climate disasters. The health of the Australian economy is critically dependent on decisions of environmental managers. However, most problems of ....The improvement of climate change investigations by developing and applying innovative evolutionary subset time series modelling using semi-parametric sparse-patterned approaches. With an estimated US$6.98 trillion loss indicated in the Stern review, severe climate change will make world climate conditions harsher and more likely include large natural climate disasters. The health of the Australian economy is critically dependent on decisions of environmental managers. However, most problems of complexity arising in climate change involve issues on which we do not possess a deep understanding. This project draws upon a set of inter-disciplinary concepts and models centred in neural networks that enable us to advance our understanding of complexity, leading to superior quantitative tools and models to allow for improved environmental decision-making.
Read moreRead less
Assessing Oceanic and Tidal Forecast Data For Search and Rescue Purposes. Locating people lost and adrift at sea requires costly resources (aircraft, ships and rescuers) and accurate planning. Rescuers also require estimates of where currents will take them. Australian marine Search and Rescue (SAR) planning uses infrequent (typically once a week) satellite measurements of ocean currents to estimate drift patterns of people at sea. Recently developed ocean forecast models will potentially help ....Assessing Oceanic and Tidal Forecast Data For Search and Rescue Purposes. Locating people lost and adrift at sea requires costly resources (aircraft, ships and rescuers) and accurate planning. Rescuers also require estimates of where currents will take them. Australian marine Search and Rescue (SAR) planning uses infrequent (typically once a week) satellite measurements of ocean currents to estimate drift patterns of people at sea. Recently developed ocean forecast models will potentially help forecast currents between the satellite observations, but are unproven for SAR use at this time and do not include tidal influences. This research project will develop measures of reliability and accuracy of using Ocean Forecasts that include tide forecasts for improving SAR planning outcomes in Australian waters.Read moreRead less
Statistical estimation and approximation of anomalous diffusion. This project investigates diffusion processes with long memory, heavy-tailed distributions and higher-order information. Each of these characteristics has been a subject of extensive current research. These processes arise in important applications with significant social/economic benefits such as heat conduction and fluid flow in porous media, propagation of seismic waves, transport of drug molecules in living tissues. Built on ou ....Statistical estimation and approximation of anomalous diffusion. This project investigates diffusion processes with long memory, heavy-tailed distributions and higher-order information. Each of these characteristics has been a subject of extensive current research. These processes arise in important applications with significant social/economic benefits such as heat conduction and fluid flow in porous media, propagation of seismic waves, transport of drug molecules in living tissues. Built on our recent fundamental developments of fractional generalised random fields and fractional diffusion equations, this project tackles the key problems of statistical estimation, approximation and prediction of diffusion processes with all the above characteristics in a unified framework not provided by other approaches.Read moreRead less
Bayesian Statistical Inference for Implicitly defined Probability Models. Bayesian statistics has recently been used to provide solutions for a large number of hitherto intractable problems in science and technology. The success of Bayesian statistics has mainly been due to the application of so-called Markov chain Monte Carlo computational techniques. We aim to improve these algorithms, by providing fast, simple and efficient computational implementations. We will use the results to give ins ....Bayesian Statistical Inference for Implicitly defined Probability Models. Bayesian statistics has recently been used to provide solutions for a large number of hitherto intractable problems in science and technology. The success of Bayesian statistics has mainly been due to the application of so-called Markov chain Monte Carlo computational techniques. We aim to improve these algorithms, by providing fast, simple and efficient computational implementations. We will use the results to give insight by carefully quantifying and modelling uncertainty for such topics as the transmission rate of infectious diseases, the spatial distribution of plant and animal species, investigating biological theory for the genome of a virus, and changes in human fertility.Read moreRead less
New approach to turbulent combustion modelling based on Multiple Mapping Conditioning. The project ensures that Australia remains at the front line of international development of new tools and approaches designed to model turbulent combustion. Improvements in modelling techniques will have a direct effect on optimisation of the industrial energy production from conventional sources and will assist in resolving the associated ecological issues. The project will also train several researches to b ....New approach to turbulent combustion modelling based on Multiple Mapping Conditioning. The project ensures that Australia remains at the front line of international development of new tools and approaches designed to model turbulent combustion. Improvements in modelling techniques will have a direct effect on optimisation of the industrial energy production from conventional sources and will assist in resolving the associated ecological issues. The project will also train several researches to be qualified to work at the frontiers of modern combustion modelling in gaseous flows.Read moreRead less
Motor Unit Numbers Estimation (MUNE) using Bayesian statistical methodology for monitoring of progression of neuromuscular diseases. A means of objectively measuring the pathology of a neuromuscular disease involving motor unit loss, such as motor neuron disease, is much needed. This will be achieved by using newly developed electrophysiological techniques and developing new Bayesian statistical methodology to determine the number of motor units that supply a muscle. Our innovations will reliabl ....Motor Unit Numbers Estimation (MUNE) using Bayesian statistical methodology for monitoring of progression of neuromuscular diseases. A means of objectively measuring the pathology of a neuromuscular disease involving motor unit loss, such as motor neuron disease, is much needed. This will be achieved by using newly developed electrophysiological techniques and developing new Bayesian statistical methodology to determine the number of motor units that supply a muscle. Our innovations will reliably determine the number of motor units that supply a muscle in both normal subjects and in diseased patients with loss of motor nerves. This will enable the monitoring of disease progression. An outcome will be a software package that can be used with standard electrophysiology machines.Read moreRead less
New approaches to the statistical modelling of financial risk: combining structural information with flexible, computationally-intensive non-parametric methods. The aims of this project are to provide a range of novel, rigorous, flexible, statistical methods to assess portfolio risk, with due attention to behaviour of its constituent components; to obtain greater understanding of the complexities of risk; and to give students research training in the nexus of statistics and finance. The anticip ....New approaches to the statistical modelling of financial risk: combining structural information with flexible, computationally-intensive non-parametric methods. The aims of this project are to provide a range of novel, rigorous, flexible, statistical methods to assess portfolio risk, with due attention to behaviour of its constituent components; to obtain greater understanding of the complexities of risk; and to give students research training in the nexus of statistics and finance. The anticipated outcomes of this project will be detailed knowledge of extremal behaviour in portfolios, improved methods for calibrating risk, advances in non-parametric methods in finance, a prototype practitioner toolkit for assessing risk, and high-calibre graduates to contribute to Australia's research capacity.Read moreRead less