ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes. This Centre aims to transform understanding of past and present climate extremes and revolutionise Australia’s capability to predict them into the future. Climate extremes cost Australia up to $4 billion a year and will intensify over coming decades. This Centre’s blue-sky research will discover processes that explain the behaviour of present and future climate extremes. It will use its researchers, data, modelling, collaboration, graduate programme ....ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes. This Centre aims to transform understanding of past and present climate extremes and revolutionise Australia’s capability to predict them into the future. Climate extremes cost Australia up to $4 billion a year and will intensify over coming decades. This Centre’s blue-sky research will discover processes that explain the behaviour of present and future climate extremes. It will use its researchers, data, modelling, collaboration, graduate programme and early career researcher mentoring to transform Australia’s capacity to predict climate extremes. This research is expected to make Australia more resilient to climate extremes and minimise risks from climate extremes to the Australian environment, society and economy.Read moreRead less
Predictability of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. This project aims to improve understanding of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the world’s largest source of climate variability. ENSO’s effects are so large that knowledge of its current phase and forecasts of its future phase underpin seasonal rainfall, temperature and tropical cyclone forecasts worldwide. In Australia, ENSO cycles cause drought and floods. Using a suite of empirical observations and numerical models to analyse ENSO e ....Predictability of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. This project aims to improve understanding of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the world’s largest source of climate variability. ENSO’s effects are so large that knowledge of its current phase and forecasts of its future phase underpin seasonal rainfall, temperature and tropical cyclone forecasts worldwide. In Australia, ENSO cycles cause drought and floods. Using a suite of empirical observations and numerical models to analyse ENSO event precursors, initiation and predictability, this project intends to enhance skill in inter-seasonal climate forecasting and help those sectors reliant on accurate prediction.Read moreRead less
Quantifying vertical and lateral ocean transport due to fronts and eddies. This project aims to quantify the intensity and location of ocean currents at unprecedented fine spatial scales by using data from a new generation of high-resolution satellites. These fine scales dominate the lateral and vertical transport of ocean-borne material, including heat, larvae and pollutants like oil and plastics, yet are poorly understood. New algorithms for processing satellite data will be developed and test ....Quantifying vertical and lateral ocean transport due to fronts and eddies. This project aims to quantify the intensity and location of ocean currents at unprecedented fine spatial scales by using data from a new generation of high-resolution satellites. These fine scales dominate the lateral and vertical transport of ocean-borne material, including heat, larvae and pollutants like oil and plastics, yet are poorly understood. New algorithms for processing satellite data will be developed and tested using in situ data in the significant North West Shelf region. Expected outcomes will be novel methods to identify ocean currents and a paradigm shift in quantification of fine-scale ocean dynamics. This will benefit operational oceanography in the areas of maritime safety, defence, fisheries and the offshore industry.Read moreRead less
The fluid dynamics of intrusions. This project aims to investigate intrusions, the primarily horizontal flows of well-mixed fluid into density-stratified surroundings. Such flows are fundamental in the atmosphere and oceans, but they are little understood because they are controlled by strong feedback between the intrusion and internal waves generated in the stratified ambient. Existing studies rely on computationally intensive simulations, analogue experiments or ad-hoc models of limited appl ....The fluid dynamics of intrusions. This project aims to investigate intrusions, the primarily horizontal flows of well-mixed fluid into density-stratified surroundings. Such flows are fundamental in the atmosphere and oceans, but they are little understood because they are controlled by strong feedback between the intrusion and internal waves generated in the stratified ambient. Existing studies rely on computationally intensive simulations, analogue experiments or ad-hoc models of limited applicability. This project expects to develop and validate a new, broadly applicable and rigorous mathematical model for such flows. Expected benefits include improved volcanic ash dispersal modelling and improved understanding of climate-critical oceanic and atmospheric flows.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE210100749
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$434,030.00
Summary
Machine learning of subgrid ocean physics for global ocean models. Climate projections require simulations with ocean-climate models for hundreds of years. Computational resources limit the resolution of our models for such long runs, meaning that some key physical processes remain unresolved and must be parameterised. This project uses machine learning to find new parameterisations for unresolved ocean processes. These new parameterisations will be implemented into computationally cheaper coars ....Machine learning of subgrid ocean physics for global ocean models. Climate projections require simulations with ocean-climate models for hundreds of years. Computational resources limit the resolution of our models for such long runs, meaning that some key physical processes remain unresolved and must be parameterised. This project uses machine learning to find new parameterisations for unresolved ocean processes. These new parameterisations will be implemented into computationally cheaper coarse-resolution ocean models, thereby enhancing these models' representation of the ocean circulation. This project expects to reveal the dynamics of unresolved processes, to improve the accuracy of climate projections and to provide a proof-of-concept for how machine learning can be used in ocean and climate science.Read moreRead less
Quantifying and parameterising ocean mixing. This project aims to advance our ability to describe the efficiency and intensity of ocean mixing. The project will develop and apply innovative techniques to estimate ocean mixing from both traditional ship-based, vertical-profiling turbulence measurements and from autonomous moorings. The project will undertake a re-analysis of historic measurements and obtain new measurements using autonomous systems. The results will be used to develop both a uni ....Quantifying and parameterising ocean mixing. This project aims to advance our ability to describe the efficiency and intensity of ocean mixing. The project will develop and apply innovative techniques to estimate ocean mixing from both traditional ship-based, vertical-profiling turbulence measurements and from autonomous moorings. The project will undertake a re-analysis of historic measurements and obtain new measurements using autonomous systems. The results will be used to develop both a universal relationship describing the efficiency of ocean mixing, and to quantify the underlying length scale controlling mixing intensity. This will enable the development of the next generation of turbulence closure models needed to describe ocean circulation and stirring.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE210100004
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$440,185.00
Summary
Mixing and air-sea coupling in the Pacific: Toward better El Nino forecasts. The Tropical Pacific drives significant year-to-year variability in Australian rainfall and climate extremes. However, tropical climate predictions are severely limited due to systematic biases in numerical climate models. Using new techniques and leveraging international collaborations, this project aims to transform our ability to simulate tropical Pacific climate through a new understanding of key air-sea interaction ....Mixing and air-sea coupling in the Pacific: Toward better El Nino forecasts. The Tropical Pacific drives significant year-to-year variability in Australian rainfall and climate extremes. However, tropical climate predictions are severely limited due to systematic biases in numerical climate models. Using new techniques and leveraging international collaborations, this project aims to transform our ability to simulate tropical Pacific climate through a new understanding of key air-sea interaction and ocean mixing processes. Expected outcomes include a better representation of tropical climate in the Australian climate model and improved seasonal to interannual predictive capability. These improved predictions will give communities more time to prepare for extreme events such as droughts, heatwaves and bushfires.Read moreRead less
Improving the credibility of regional sea level rise projections. Anthropogenic sea level rise is expected to inundate low-lying islands and coastlines around the world, with multiple model projections suggesting that changes in wind patterns will lead to larger than average sea level rise along Australia’s east coast and in neighbouring small island nations. Confidence in projections of this spatial sea level rise variability is low, however, due to a strong mismatch between patterns of observe ....Improving the credibility of regional sea level rise projections. Anthropogenic sea level rise is expected to inundate low-lying islands and coastlines around the world, with multiple model projections suggesting that changes in wind patterns will lead to larger than average sea level rise along Australia’s east coast and in neighbouring small island nations. Confidence in projections of this spatial sea level rise variability is low, however, due to a strong mismatch between patterns of observed and model-projected sea level rise in recent decades. This work will use a newly developed climate model hierarchy and innovative experimental design to determine the cause of this discrepancy and will produce more credible regional sea level rise projections by clarifying and reducing projection uncertainty.
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Remote sensing techniques to infer fine-scale ocean surface currents. This project aims to develop new technology for measuring ocean surface currents at unprecedented fine resolution using aerial imagery and theory that describes how surface waves are refracted by currents. The project will generate new knowledge on ocean surface current processes and variability across a range of scales, and critically, improve our understanding of surface current uncertainty through application of advanced st ....Remote sensing techniques to infer fine-scale ocean surface currents. This project aims to develop new technology for measuring ocean surface currents at unprecedented fine resolution using aerial imagery and theory that describes how surface waves are refracted by currents. The project will generate new knowledge on ocean surface current processes and variability across a range of scales, and critically, improve our understanding of surface current uncertainty through application of advanced statistical analysis techniques. The outcomes of this project will deliver Australian capability to leverage the enhanced spatial and temporal resolution of next generation Earth observations to directly benefit search and rescue, offshore industry operations, defence, and pollution response in Australian waters.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE220101027
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$455,906.00
Summary
Resolving ocean convection: new knowledge for a changing Antarctica. This project aims to improve our understanding of the role of convection on the Antarctic margins using a high-resolution, cutting-edge numerical approach. Convection is an important, but poorly understood oceanic process, which diverts heat away from the melting Antarctic ice shelves by transporting cold and salty water from the ocean surface to depth. The project outcomes will be new knowledge of the physics from novel numeri ....Resolving ocean convection: new knowledge for a changing Antarctica. This project aims to improve our understanding of the role of convection on the Antarctic margins using a high-resolution, cutting-edge numerical approach. Convection is an important, but poorly understood oceanic process, which diverts heat away from the melting Antarctic ice shelves by transporting cold and salty water from the ocean surface to depth. The project outcomes will be new knowledge of the physics from novel numerical models and theory, supported by insights from observations and model parameterisations. This timely research will improve prediction of sea level rise due to a changing Antarctica and enhance our ability to adapt to future climate scenarios, providing significant environmental and health benefits to Australians.Read moreRead less