Investment Approaches and Applications in Financial Markets: Evolutionary Kernel Based Subset Time-Series Using Semi-Parametric Approaches. The project will develop new investment assessments based on subset time-series modeling. Innovative evolutionary kernel smoothing algorithms using semi-parametric approaches will be introduced. The project will make three important applications of this modeling in financial markets: a) benchmarking and evaluation of inflation-indexed bonds; b) evaluation of ....Investment Approaches and Applications in Financial Markets: Evolutionary Kernel Based Subset Time-Series Using Semi-Parametric Approaches. The project will develop new investment assessments based on subset time-series modeling. Innovative evolutionary kernel smoothing algorithms using semi-parametric approaches will be introduced. The project will make three important applications of this modeling in financial markets: a) benchmarking and evaluation of inflation-indexed bonds; b) evaluation of the performance of global diversified investment funds; and c) prediction to provide early warning of the emergence of destabilising deflation or inflation. These three applications will lead to improved risk management practices and investment performance. Recursive algorithms will provide new statistical methods to study investment asset price movements and market volatility.
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The improvement of climate change investigations by developing and applying innovative evolutionary subset time series modelling using semi-parametric sparse-patterned approaches. With an estimated US$6.98 trillion loss indicated in the Stern review, severe climate change will make world climate conditions harsher and more likely include large natural climate disasters. The health of the Australian economy is critically dependent on decisions of environmental managers. However, most problems of ....The improvement of climate change investigations by developing and applying innovative evolutionary subset time series modelling using semi-parametric sparse-patterned approaches. With an estimated US$6.98 trillion loss indicated in the Stern review, severe climate change will make world climate conditions harsher and more likely include large natural climate disasters. The health of the Australian economy is critically dependent on decisions of environmental managers. However, most problems of complexity arising in climate change involve issues on which we do not possess a deep understanding. This project draws upon a set of inter-disciplinary concepts and models centred in neural networks that enable us to advance our understanding of complexity, leading to superior quantitative tools and models to allow for improved environmental decision-making.
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Investment approaches and opportunities in renewable energy and financial resource markets, using semi-parametric approaches to evolutionary subset time-series lattice-ladder modelling. The project findings will help Australian exporters and importers understand and manage energy and resource price risks more effectively. The investment community will benefit through selecting optimal asset allocations and enhancing value to investors. It will also benefit many other agencies, particularly in th ....Investment approaches and opportunities in renewable energy and financial resource markets, using semi-parametric approaches to evolutionary subset time-series lattice-ladder modelling. The project findings will help Australian exporters and importers understand and manage energy and resource price risks more effectively. The investment community will benefit through selecting optimal asset allocations and enhancing value to investors. It will also benefit many other agencies, particularly in the service industries. It is not well recognised that in developed countries, including Australia, the financial service and related sectors account for more than 60 percent of economic activity and employment, so it is critical that more sophisticated statistical methods be established, and practical applications conducted, in order to advance the understanding of complexity management in the financial service and related sectors.Read moreRead less
The improvement of investment approaches by developing and applying bootstrap methods to innovative evolutionary kernel-based subset time-series modelling. With over $1 trillion of investors' monies in the hands of fund managers, the importance of efficient investment decisions across all industry sectors is self evident. Even if the modest target of systematically improving decision making by 1 or 2 % is set, the aggregate economic benefit achieved, given the compounding effects will be enormou ....The improvement of investment approaches by developing and applying bootstrap methods to innovative evolutionary kernel-based subset time-series modelling. With over $1 trillion of investors' monies in the hands of fund managers, the importance of efficient investment decisions across all industry sectors is self evident. Even if the modest target of systematically improving decision making by 1 or 2 % is set, the aggregate economic benefit achieved, given the compounding effects will be enormous. Any developed or developing country will profit from such advanced decision-making approaches. Therefore it is critical that more sophisticated statistical methods be established, and practical applications conducted, in order to advance the understanding of complexity management in the financial investment and other relevant sectors.Read moreRead less
Increasing internet energy and cost efficiency by improving higher-layer protocols. Australians rely heavily on our telecommunications infrastructure due to our geographic dispersion. We are also very susceptible to climate change, given our reliance on agriculture. Information technology is consuming a rapidly increasing fraction of our power and our budget. This research will help to reverse both those trends, by finding novel and practical ways to use our infrastructure more efficiently, and ....Increasing internet energy and cost efficiency by improving higher-layer protocols. Australians rely heavily on our telecommunications infrastructure due to our geographic dispersion. We are also very susceptible to climate change, given our reliance on agriculture. Information technology is consuming a rapidly increasing fraction of our power and our budget. This research will help to reverse both those trends, by finding novel and practical ways to use our infrastructure more efficiently, and to minimise its energy use. This will enable the Australian telecommunications industry to provide better service (including to Australian industries and rural communities) at lower economic and environmental cost. This project will put Australia on the international stage as a leading contributor to energy-efficient internet technology.Read moreRead less
The Language of Knowledge. Knowledge is central to our lives. The way we attribute knowledge to others governs whom we trust, how we reason, what we do, and whether we succeed. The significance of this project consists in a deeper understanding of our attributions of knowledge, situated within the context of questions. This project offers the benefits of quality foundational research in an interdisciplinary venue. It connects to a range of areas of National Research Priority including An Environ ....The Language of Knowledge. Knowledge is central to our lives. The way we attribute knowledge to others governs whom we trust, how we reason, what we do, and whether we succeed. The significance of this project consists in a deeper understanding of our attributions of knowledge, situated within the context of questions. This project offers the benefits of quality foundational research in an interdisciplinary venue. It connects to a range of areas of National Research Priority including An Environmentally Sustainable Australia, Promoting and Managing Good Health, and Frontier Technologies for Building and Transforming Australian Industries, insofar as all of these areas of National Research Priority are concerned with the acquisition and transfer of knowledge.Read moreRead less
Perception, interpretation, and the explanation of delusional beliefs. The occurrence of bizarrely false beliefs, called delusions, presents challenges, not only for clinical psychiatric practice, but also for psychology, neuroscience, and philosophy. The aim of this project is to make a distinctively philosophical contribution to our understanding of delusional beliefs by addressing three philosophical questions raised by the study of delusions, questions about perception, interpretation, and e ....Perception, interpretation, and the explanation of delusional beliefs. The occurrence of bizarrely false beliefs, called delusions, presents challenges, not only for clinical psychiatric practice, but also for psychology, neuroscience, and philosophy. The aim of this project is to make a distinctively philosophical contribution to our understanding of delusional beliefs by addressing three philosophical questions raised by the study of delusions, questions about perception, interpretation, and explanation. Answers to these questions will constitute substantial contributions to three central areas of philosophy, but their significance also extends beyond philosophy. They will impact on the scientific investigation of delusions and will contribute indirectly to the treatment and rehabilitation of sufferers.
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Epistemic Warrant: Transmission Failure, Basic Knowledge, and Entitlement. This Project will bring substantial intellectual, cultural, and economic benefits to the nation - not only by increasing research strength, contributing to research output and establishing an international research partnership, but also by deepening the relationship between the study of the mind and theory of knowledge as a traditional area within philosophy and thus helping to maintain the pivotal position of philosophy ....Epistemic Warrant: Transmission Failure, Basic Knowledge, and Entitlement. This Project will bring substantial intellectual, cultural, and economic benefits to the nation - not only by increasing research strength, contributing to research output and establishing an international research partnership, but also by deepening the relationship between the study of the mind and theory of knowledge as a traditional area within philosophy and thus helping to maintain the pivotal position of philosophy in our intellectual life. Students, early-career researchers and established philosophers will benefit from access to the intellectual and institutional resources of international partner universities and there will be substantial and quantifiable financial contributions by international universities and research agencies.Read moreRead less
Evolvability and the Evolution of Complexity. Anyone engaging in a moment's reflection on the striking richness, diversity, and complexity of the biological world is faced with the question: how did it get here? Though natural selection is central to answering this question, important new work has identified various conditions that make some lineages of organisms "evolvable": capable of changing in ways that radically expand the range of further possible changes. This project will clarify and in ....Evolvability and the Evolution of Complexity. Anyone engaging in a moment's reflection on the striking richness, diversity, and complexity of the biological world is faced with the question: how did it get here? Though natural selection is central to answering this question, important new work has identified various conditions that make some lineages of organisms "evolvable": capable of changing in ways that radically expand the range of further possible changes. This project will clarify and integrate these various conditions using empirical examples and simple models. The resulting work from this project will provide a clearer general understanding of what biological complexity is, and how science has compelling candidates for understanding how it evolves.Read moreRead less
Reasons and Rationality. The project explains how we assess the truth and falsehood of everyday claims about what people have reason to do. It also explains what legitimizes our practice of praising and blaming people for their success and failure at doing what we think they have reason to do. In so doing it provides a foundation for both our ordinary practice of holding people responsible, and for the more institutionalised counterpart of this ordinary practice in the law.