Models for Australian Electricity Derivatives. Electricity derivatives, such as electricity futures and options are used to manage the risk associated with volatility in prices of electricity. This project aims to develop models for pricing electricity derivatives specifically suited for Australia. Because of the non-storable nature of electricity the standard option pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" does not apply to electricity options, such as caps and floors, but applies to options on elec ....Models for Australian Electricity Derivatives. Electricity derivatives, such as electricity futures and options are used to manage the risk associated with volatility in prices of electricity. This project aims to develop models for pricing electricity derivatives specifically suited for Australia. Because of the non-storable nature of electricity the standard option pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" does not apply to electricity options, such as caps and floors, but applies to options on electricity futures. Therefore a specific model is needed that takes into account the pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" and combines it with other factors that drive electricity prices. The novel element in this proposal is incorporation of the weather forecasts into the models for electricity options. As a result of this study appropriate models for electricity derivatives for various geographical regions in Australia will be developed.Read moreRead less
The Time-Varying Eigenvalue Problem with Application to Signal Processing and Control. Linear models are ubiquitous in representing physical processes. Decomposing a linear model into its fundamental components is known as the eigenvalue problem. In applications as wide ranging as astronomy, aircraft control systems, Internet search engines and communication systems, it is necessary to perform this decomposition of a pertinent time varying linear model on the fly. This project aims to develop si ....The Time-Varying Eigenvalue Problem with Application to Signal Processing and Control. Linear models are ubiquitous in representing physical processes. Decomposing a linear model into its fundamental components is known as the eigenvalue problem. In applications as wide ranging as astronomy, aircraft control systems, Internet search engines and communication systems, it is necessary to perform this decomposition of a pertinent time varying linear model on the fly. This project aims to develop significantly faster and more accurate algorithms for this time varying eigenvalue problem than currently exist. Very modern techniques will be employed to achieve this aim, and the potential benefits to Australian hi-tech industries are great.
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The estimation of genotype-phenotype relationships from family data and of animal abundance from capture-recapture data with frequent capture occasions: A semiparametric approach. Semiparametric statistical methods allow researchers to only model those features of their data that are of interest, but still allow standard statistical inferences to be made about these features. The aim here is to develop non standard applications of semiparametric statistical methods in the estimation of genotype ....The estimation of genotype-phenotype relationships from family data and of animal abundance from capture-recapture data with frequent capture occasions: A semiparametric approach. Semiparametric statistical methods allow researchers to only model those features of their data that are of interest, but still allow standard statistical inferences to be made about these features. The aim here is to develop non standard applications of semiparametric statistical methods in the estimation of genotype-phenotype relationships from family data and the estimation of animal abundance from capture-recapture data. The methods will be applied to real data and their theoretical properties developed. The practical significance of the project is the flexible new statistical methods that will become available to researchers. The theoretical significance will be the insights into semiparametric methods gained by developing these nonstandard applications. The expected outcomes are the new statistical procedures and the resulting theoretical insights into semiparametric statistics.Read moreRead less
Special Research Initiatives - Grant ID: SR0354466
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$20,000.00
Summary
Mathematics in Contemporary Science. The Mathematics in Contemporary Science Research Network brings contemporary methods of non-linear analysis and differential equations, geometric reasoning and relevant algebraic and topological ideas to enrich six application areas in modern science: Complex Systems, Computer Vision, Optimal Transportation, Nanotechnology, Physics and Shortest Networks. MiCS will develop both the mathematics and the application areas in parallel. It will focus on postgradu ....Mathematics in Contemporary Science. The Mathematics in Contemporary Science Research Network brings contemporary methods of non-linear analysis and differential equations, geometric reasoning and relevant algebraic and topological ideas to enrich six application areas in modern science: Complex Systems, Computer Vision, Optimal Transportation, Nanotechnology, Physics and Shortest Networks. MiCS will develop both the mathematics and the application areas in parallel. It will focus on postgraduate training through workshops, summer schools and web based resources and build long-term international collaborations with EU networks and NSERC, NSF and EPSRC institutes as well as bringing together academic and industry leaders.Read moreRead less
Stein's method for probability approximation. Data of counts in time, such as incoming calls in telecommunications and the clusters of palindromes in a family of herpes-virus genomes, arise in an extraordinarily diverse range of fields from science to business. These problems can be modelled by sums of random variables taking values 0 and 1 in probability theory, thus permitting approximate calculations which are often good enough in practice. This project will obtain such approximate solutions ....Stein's method for probability approximation. Data of counts in time, such as incoming calls in telecommunications and the clusters of palindromes in a family of herpes-virus genomes, arise in an extraordinarily diverse range of fields from science to business. These problems can be modelled by sums of random variables taking values 0 and 1 in probability theory, thus permitting approximate calculations which are often good enough in practice. This project will obtain such approximate solutions and estimate the errors involved. Applications include analysis of data in insurance, finance, flood prediction in hydrology.Read moreRead less
The role of magnetic fields in star formation. Recently we have performed the world's first calculations of star cluster formation that incorporate the effects of magnetic fields and radiation. This research has recently been brought back to Australia and the goal of this proposal is to extend our competitive edge in this area.
Whilst calculations of the formation of stars gives us fundamental understanding about a very basic physical process in the universe (namely, the conversion of gas into s ....The role of magnetic fields in star formation. Recently we have performed the world's first calculations of star cluster formation that incorporate the effects of magnetic fields and radiation. This research has recently been brought back to Australia and the goal of this proposal is to extend our competitive edge in this area.
Whilst calculations of the formation of stars gives us fundamental understanding about a very basic physical process in the universe (namely, the conversion of gas into stars), the equations we solve and the methods used to solve them, are the same as those used to describe many gases and fluids on earth. Solving these equations in difficult astrophysical regimes develops new methodology which translates readily to earth-bound problems.Read moreRead less
Censored Regression Techniques for Credit Scoring. This project will apply censored regression techniques to a loans database from the industry partner, the ANZ bank. We will accurately estimate the actual time to loan repayment, rather than simply the risk of default. In a novel approach for credit scoring we will build a model using current, right-censored, rather than historic data, incorporating loans that are not yet repaid but are underway and clearly have a length of loan longer than obse ....Censored Regression Techniques for Credit Scoring. This project will apply censored regression techniques to a loans database from the industry partner, the ANZ bank. We will accurately estimate the actual time to loan repayment, rather than simply the risk of default. In a novel approach for credit scoring we will build a model using current, right-censored, rather than historic data, incorporating loans that are not yet repaid but are underway and clearly have a length of loan longer than observed. This approach has the immense advantage of being able to reflect contemporary borrowing patterns in the model, rather than relying on historic trends.
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Modelling patient flows through hospitals: optimizing effective use of resources. Hospitals are complex, dynamic systems confronted by increased demand in the face of shrinking real capacity. Managing such systems is currently undertaken with sub-optimal analytical support, particularly when demand and capacity are changing and resources must be manipulated to respond to such changes. In this project, the investigators will apply a mathematical modelling approach to the analysis of hospital pati ....Modelling patient flows through hospitals: optimizing effective use of resources. Hospitals are complex, dynamic systems confronted by increased demand in the face of shrinking real capacity. Managing such systems is currently undertaken with sub-optimal analytical support, particularly when demand and capacity are changing and resources must be manipulated to respond to such changes. In this project, the investigators will apply a mathematical modelling approach to the analysis of hospital patient flows. Furthermore, they will employ statistical process control methodologies to the problem of recognising and responding to changes in the flows, so that performance objectives are met. In doing this, they will give health service managers and clinicians a significant advantage in deciding how best to manage a constrained resource to maximize access, throughput and patient outcomes.Read moreRead less
Multifractal models in finance via the crossing tree. High level mathematical modelling is an established part of the modern finance industry, in particular the Black-Scholes option pricing formula is now an indispensable financial tool.
To remain competitive the Australian financial sector needs to keep up with developments in mathematical finance, which is only possible if the Australian academic community remains active in the field.
The work on multifractal modelling proposed here is innov ....Multifractal models in finance via the crossing tree. High level mathematical modelling is an established part of the modern finance industry, in particular the Black-Scholes option pricing formula is now an indispensable financial tool.
To remain competitive the Australian financial sector needs to keep up with developments in mathematical finance, which is only possible if the Australian academic community remains active in the field.
The work on multifractal modelling proposed here is innovative both in its theoretical aspects and its applied methodology, and will ensure that Australian research remains at the cutting edge of this highly competitive and fast moving field.Read moreRead less
Quantum decoherence: A game-theoretic perspective. Algorithms based on quantum computation have the ability to significantly speed up information processing compared to standard computers. The increase in computational power can have enormous impact on humankind and this project will help maintain Australia's position in the global forefront of this effort.This project focuses on the thoeretical foundations of quantum computation and complements the efforts of several groups in Australia collabo ....Quantum decoherence: A game-theoretic perspective. Algorithms based on quantum computation have the ability to significantly speed up information processing compared to standard computers. The increase in computational power can have enormous impact on humankind and this project will help maintain Australia's position in the global forefront of this effort.This project focuses on the thoeretical foundations of quantum computation and complements the efforts of several groups in Australia collaborating on the experimental design of quantum computers. The project will increase the fundamental understanding of how quantum information is processed in the presence of noise, which is necessary for the successful operation of quantum computers. Read moreRead less