Using Advances in Bayesian Statistics to Estimate Australian Rainfall Variations in a Climate Change World. Modelling changes to rainfall patterns answers many important questions about changes in Australia's climate. This is essential to protecting our biodiversity and ensuring Australia's environmental sustainability. The project will address such issues as the extent to which the entire distribution of daily rainfall has changed over time, which areas of Australia have been most affected by t ....Using Advances in Bayesian Statistics to Estimate Australian Rainfall Variations in a Climate Change World. Modelling changes to rainfall patterns answers many important questions about changes in Australia's climate. This is essential to protecting our biodiversity and ensuring Australia's environmental sustainability. The project will address such issues as the extent to which the entire distribution of daily rainfall has changed over time, which areas of Australia have been most affected by this change and to what extent are these changes related to global climate indices. The latest advances in Bayesian statistics will be used to introduce flexibility and complexity into the model.Read moreRead less
Australian Laureate Fellowships - Grant ID: FL150100035
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$2,765,281.00
Summary
Revisiting the physics of clouds. Revisiting the physics of clouds: This fellowship project aims to bring new rigour to climate modelling by improving our understanding of key phenomena like clouds and storms. Earth’s climate has taken a number of turns in the recent and geologic past that so far cannot be reproduced in models. Clouds and atmospheric turbulence are also a problem for weather and climate prediction, the conceptual understanding of which now has evident flaws. The hypothesis of th ....Revisiting the physics of clouds. Revisiting the physics of clouds: This fellowship project aims to bring new rigour to climate modelling by improving our understanding of key phenomena like clouds and storms. Earth’s climate has taken a number of turns in the recent and geologic past that so far cannot be reproduced in models. Clouds and atmospheric turbulence are also a problem for weather and climate prediction, the conceptual understanding of which now has evident flaws. The hypothesis of this project is that these two problems are strongly linked, and that this link may be exploited to solve problems across disciplines. This project aims to systematically re-evaluate our conceptual understanding of cloud physics, and investigate how this affects our understanding of climate phenomena in Earth’s past and future.Read moreRead less
WAKE FLOWS WITH UPSTREAM TURBULENCE IN MARINE, ATMOSPHERIC AND BUILT ENVIRONMENTS. Through improved understanding of turbulent wakes the project will have applications across aeronautics and hydrodynamics, leading to more efficient engineering designs to reduce flow drag. In marine environments our findings will improve coastal ocean models and the prediction of pollutant dispersal, nutrient fluxes and sediment transport, and contribute to the management of biological productivity (NRP 1.5). In ....WAKE FLOWS WITH UPSTREAM TURBULENCE IN MARINE, ATMOSPHERIC AND BUILT ENVIRONMENTS. Through improved understanding of turbulent wakes the project will have applications across aeronautics and hydrodynamics, leading to more efficient engineering designs to reduce flow drag. In marine environments our findings will improve coastal ocean models and the prediction of pollutant dispersal, nutrient fluxes and sediment transport, and contribute to the management of biological productivity (NRP 1.5). In the atmospheric boundary layer, the results will assist planners to improve wind environments near large buildings or clusters of buildings, benefiting the safety of aircraft at takeoff and landing. The project will develop collaboration and help maintain the strength of Australian research in environmental flows.Read moreRead less
Western Australia severe weather prediction: optimising forecasts using new data sources and improved high-resolution models. WA suffers unusually high exposure to severe tropical and extra-tropical weather, from its size and geographical location. This project will develop enhanced data assimilation and modelling techniques, using emerging high-resolution satellite and other data to improve the timeliness, accuracy and reliability of weather forecasts for WA. Outcomes include: improved forecas ....Western Australia severe weather prediction: optimising forecasts using new data sources and improved high-resolution models. WA suffers unusually high exposure to severe tropical and extra-tropical weather, from its size and geographical location. This project will develop enhanced data assimilation and modelling techniques, using emerging high-resolution satellite and other data to improve the timeliness, accuracy and reliability of weather forecasts for WA. Outcomes include: improved forecast systems for predicting severe weather affecting WA (and consequently Australia), and ensemble forecast systems that provide valuable probabilistic information, such as confidence limits in the forecasts. Better forecasts issued earlier for severe weather events will allow appropriate planning and management measures, thereby reducing their present high social and economic cost.Read moreRead less
Understanding extreme wind gusts and associated risks in NSW. Wind gusts are rare bursts of high wind, often associated with thunderstorm outflows. They can do significant structural damage, and their rarity and small scale make prediction and risk assessment difficult. This proposal seeks to better understand and predict wind gusts and their impacts to aid in planning. The project aims to use past observations, modelling, and basic theory to show what conditions lead to wind gusts and how like ....Understanding extreme wind gusts and associated risks in NSW. Wind gusts are rare bursts of high wind, often associated with thunderstorm outflows. They can do significant structural damage, and their rarity and small scale make prediction and risk assessment difficult. This proposal seeks to better understand and predict wind gusts and their impacts to aid in planning. The project aims to use past observations, modelling, and basic theory to show what conditions lead to wind gusts and how likely they are to exceed key thresholds. It targets important scientific and practical issues such as the joint occurrence of gusts and high rainfall, role of gusts in contributing to dust and other airborne pollutants, impacts of gusts on subsequent storm activity, and gusts in a warming climate.Read moreRead less
The carbon cycle and climate: new approaches to atmospheric measurements and modelling. Earth's climate is intimately connected to the carbon cycle, which controls atmospheric CO2 through processes such as photosynthesis, respiration and ocean uptake. A thorough understanding of the carbon cycle, and potential feedbacks with climate change, is prerequisite knowledge for informed assessments of future climate, impacts, adaptation and mitigation. This proposal improves that understanding through ....The carbon cycle and climate: new approaches to atmospheric measurements and modelling. Earth's climate is intimately connected to the carbon cycle, which controls atmospheric CO2 through processes such as photosynthesis, respiration and ocean uptake. A thorough understanding of the carbon cycle, and potential feedbacks with climate change, is prerequisite knowledge for informed assessments of future climate, impacts, adaptation and mitigation. This proposal improves that understanding through measurements of CO2 and other key Kyoto-protocol greenhouse gases, links to global networks and satellite measurements, and advanced modelling. Australian science has a very important role to play in international networks due to our unique combination of southern hemisphere location and scientific standing. Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE200101435
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$364,932.00
Summary
Rainfall Enhancement Following Landfalling Tropical Cyclone over Australia. Australia has one of the highest incidents of tropical cyclone-related rainfall in the world. Although these events have considerable socio-economic impacts on population centres and industries, the rainfall processes following the landfalling tropical cyclones have received limited attention from the research community. This project aims to improve fundamental understanding of the high-risk locations, spatial-temporal c ....Rainfall Enhancement Following Landfalling Tropical Cyclone over Australia. Australia has one of the highest incidents of tropical cyclone-related rainfall in the world. Although these events have considerable socio-economic impacts on population centres and industries, the rainfall processes following the landfalling tropical cyclones have received limited attention from the research community. This project aims to improve fundamental understanding of the high-risk locations, spatial-temporal characteristics, thermodynamic-dynamic mechanism on enhanced rainfall following the landfall of tropical cyclones over Australia. Expected outcomes include: (a) scientific support for weather forecasting; and (b) improved knowledge of extreme rainfall following tropical cyclone landfall in the context of warming climate.Read moreRead less
Satellite-Based Radio Occultation for Atmospheric Sounding, Weather Forecasting and Climate Monitoring in the Australian Region. Global climate change and its associated risks are serious issues because the resultant storms, fires, floods, droughts and cyclones are weather events affecting Australia. However, the predictability of such phenomena is seriously limited due to sparse atmospheric sensor distribution. This project will investigate new space-borne and ground-based radio occultation tec ....Satellite-Based Radio Occultation for Atmospheric Sounding, Weather Forecasting and Climate Monitoring in the Australian Region. Global climate change and its associated risks are serious issues because the resultant storms, fires, floods, droughts and cyclones are weather events affecting Australia. However, the predictability of such phenomena is seriously limited due to sparse atmospheric sensor distribution. This project will investigate new space-borne and ground-based radio occultation techniques, atmospheric sounding technologies and their fusion to overcome such constraints. This project is dedicated to developing superior national capabilities in anticipating, analysing and investigating critical meteorological threats to Australia. This research will significantly upgrade Australia's meteorological services and contribute to the global community.Read moreRead less
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes. This Centre aims to transform understanding of past and present climate extremes and revolutionise Australia’s capability to predict them into the future. Climate extremes cost Australia up to $4 billion a year and will intensify over coming decades. This Centre’s blue-sky research will discover processes that explain the behaviour of present and future climate extremes. It will use its researchers, data, modelling, collaboration, graduate programme ....ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes. This Centre aims to transform understanding of past and present climate extremes and revolutionise Australia’s capability to predict them into the future. Climate extremes cost Australia up to $4 billion a year and will intensify over coming decades. This Centre’s blue-sky research will discover processes that explain the behaviour of present and future climate extremes. It will use its researchers, data, modelling, collaboration, graduate programme and early career researcher mentoring to transform Australia’s capacity to predict climate extremes. This research is expected to make Australia more resilient to climate extremes and minimise risks from climate extremes to the Australian environment, society and economy.Read moreRead less
How does orography enhance precipitation in Australian wintertime storms? This project aims to employ targeted field observations, numerical simulations and new satellite capabilities to identify the dynamical and microphysical mechanisms that enhance and redistribute precipitation across the alpine regions of south eastern Australia and Tasmania. These observations will be used to evaluate operational numerical weather simulations specifically focusing on quantitative precipitation forecasts an ....How does orography enhance precipitation in Australian wintertime storms? This project aims to employ targeted field observations, numerical simulations and new satellite capabilities to identify the dynamical and microphysical mechanisms that enhance and redistribute precipitation across the alpine regions of south eastern Australia and Tasmania. These observations will be used to evaluate operational numerical weather simulations specifically focusing on quantitative precipitation forecasts and estimates. The observations will also be used to extend known biases in the national gridded precipitation analysis that are a result of the complex mountain terrain. This identification of the physical processes that enhance and redistribute precipitation over the alpine regions across south east Australia and Tasmania will lead to better precipitation estimates and forecasts and better water management.Read moreRead less