Inductive game theory: experiential knowledge, interactions, and limited inferences in social contexts. This research project stresses the importance of limited experiences and limited inferential abilities for explaining differences observed across individuals and groups in society. The project will use inductive game theory to attack problems and conflicts between individuals and groups based on such limitations.
Identification Power and Instrument Strength in Discrete Outcome Models. This project aims to develop new econometric and statistical techniques to quantify causal effects in treatment models with discrete outcomes. Expected outcomes include a much-needed weak instrument test, a measure for identification strength in partial identification setting, and an instrument-covariate selection procedure for high dimensional discrete models based identification power. The benefits include advanced knowle ....Identification Power and Instrument Strength in Discrete Outcome Models. This project aims to develop new econometric and statistical techniques to quantify causal effects in treatment models with discrete outcomes. Expected outcomes include a much-needed weak instrument test, a measure for identification strength in partial identification setting, and an instrument-covariate selection procedure for high dimensional discrete models based identification power. The benefits include advanced knowledge in econometrics and statistics, and enhanced tools for program evaluation and policy assessment in empirical causal analysis using observational data. The project falls into the category of smarter information use and is relevant to any national priority areas where policy interventions require assessment.Read moreRead less
Selection of mixed strength moment restrictions and optimal inference . This project aims to develop consistent model selection criteria even if the target model only provides a weak signal about the parameter of interest. This project expects to generate new knowledge on model selection using new and innovative techniques. Expected outcomes include the quantification of the maximum information on parameter from weak-signal models; new entropy-based model selection criteria; and a robust investi ....Selection of mixed strength moment restrictions and optimal inference . This project aims to develop consistent model selection criteria even if the target model only provides a weak signal about the parameter of interest. This project expects to generate new knowledge on model selection using new and innovative techniques. Expected outcomes include the quantification of the maximum information on parameter from weak-signal models; new entropy-based model selection criteria; and a robust investigation of the still debated hypothesis in environmental economics that with open and liberalized trade, developing countries would become pollution havens for dirty industries of advanced countries. Success in this undertaking will dramatically enlarge the pool of applied work involving economic models with weak signals.Read moreRead less
Bayesian copula modelling of multivariate dependence: getting to grips with data that is far from normal. Copula models are very popular tools that are changing the way analysts deal with information rich data in fields as diverse as marketing, finance and transport studies. This project aims to improve and extend these tools, so that more accurate and reliable models can be employed, resulting in improved evidence-based decision-making.
Fair pricing of superannuation guaranteed benefits with downturn risk. Australians have more than $2.7 trillion in superannuation assets, meaning that Australia is the fourth largest holder of pension fund assets worldwide. Hence the impact of market fluctuations on financial well-being of retirees can be detrimental, especially during market downturns associated with economic crises. The finance industry addresses this issue by complementing variable annuities with riders designed to protect th ....Fair pricing of superannuation guaranteed benefits with downturn risk. Australians have more than $2.7 trillion in superannuation assets, meaning that Australia is the fourth largest holder of pension fund assets worldwide. Hence the impact of market fluctuations on financial well-being of retirees can be detrimental, especially during market downturns associated with economic crises. The finance industry addresses this issue by complementing variable annuities with riders designed to protect the income stream of retirees. This project aims to develop a novel approach to fair pricing and optimal withdrawals and surrender policies for superannuation guaranteed benefit products through a comprehensive analysis of complex optimisation problems in stochastic models of financial markets with downturn risk.Read moreRead less
A robust approach to designing mechanisms for budget constrained agents. This project aims to study the design of robust implementable allocation mechanisms for agents who face financial constraints. Financial constraints are important for housing markets, big business auctions and government procurement. Yet their effect on the performance of allocation policies is not well understood. The project intends to develop a general and tractable framework of allocation mechanisms that are implementab ....A robust approach to designing mechanisms for budget constrained agents. This project aims to study the design of robust implementable allocation mechanisms for agents who face financial constraints. Financial constraints are important for housing markets, big business auctions and government procurement. Yet their effect on the performance of allocation policies is not well understood. The project intends to develop a general and tractable framework of allocation mechanisms that are implementable without deficits. The project will adapt this framework to the study of revenue-maximising multi-object auctions with complementarities, and to house allocation problems and related situations where efficiency and priority assignments are important considerations. The project expects to provide policy insights and implications relevant to the Australian housing market.Read moreRead less
An economic analysis of multi-period reform programs. This project aims to use a mechanism design approach to study multi-period reform programs and their use in the transition from status quo institutions. The project intends to shed light on the difficulties of introducing efficiency enhancing long-term policies. Expected outcomes include theoretical models that incorporate adjustment costs, common values, and complicated status quo institutions into models of economic reform from a mechanism ....An economic analysis of multi-period reform programs. This project aims to use a mechanism design approach to study multi-period reform programs and their use in the transition from status quo institutions. The project intends to shed light on the difficulties of introducing efficiency enhancing long-term policies. Expected outcomes include theoretical models that incorporate adjustment costs, common values, and complicated status quo institutions into models of economic reform from a mechanism design perspective as well as optimal dynamic reform policies in the presence of these frictions, focusing attention in the trade-off between static efficiency and dynamic welfare gains. Intended benefits include insights that are wildly applicable to the provision of public infrastructure and management of public resources.Read moreRead less
A new approach to stability analysis for economic systems. This project will provide a new methodology for analysing stability in economic systems. By enhancing our understanding of stability and instability in markets for assets, credit, commodities and natural resources, this project will help economists forecast likely outcomes and improve the formulation of related economic policy.
Multi-person stochastic games with idiosyncratic information flows. The project will develop rigorous mathematical techniques aiming to quantify the impact of different information flows on solutions to decision making problems under uncertainty that are frequently encountered in Financial Economics, Mathematical Finance and Social Sciences.
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE180101452
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$357,996.00
Summary
Strategic interaction with limited memory: A theoretical approach. This project aims to propose a theoretical framework that would allow economists to explore and uncover the behavioural and welfare effects of memory constraints. By integrating cognitive constraints into existing economic theory, this project is expected to enhance economists’ future capacity to inform a diverse range of economic policies. Incorporating cognitive constraints into economic research can reduce unintended conseque ....Strategic interaction with limited memory: A theoretical approach. This project aims to propose a theoretical framework that would allow economists to explore and uncover the behavioural and welfare effects of memory constraints. By integrating cognitive constraints into existing economic theory, this project is expected to enhance economists’ future capacity to inform a diverse range of economic policies. Incorporating cognitive constraints into economic research can reduce unintended consequences of policy recommendations and is especially important in in complex markets such as health or household finance.Read moreRead less