Assessment Of Interventions For Controlling Pandemic Influenza And Determining Data Needs To Inform These Assessments
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$183,040.00
Summary
The aim of this study is to help us prepare for a pandemic of influenza by comparing how effective the various available control strategies are at reducing transmission of the disease. The available control interventions include: reducing the number of close contacts we make with others, isolating cases after they are diagnosed, closing schools, quarantining households, quarantining individuals who are known to have been exposed to a case, and using antiviral drugs treat and protect people at ri ....The aim of this study is to help us prepare for a pandemic of influenza by comparing how effective the various available control strategies are at reducing transmission of the disease. The available control interventions include: reducing the number of close contacts we make with others, isolating cases after they are diagnosed, closing schools, quarantining households, quarantining individuals who are known to have been exposed to a case, and using antiviral drugs treat and protect people at risk of being infected. We will compare these control measures by taking due account of the ability and resources available for these interventions, and with regard to the need to maintain essential services. The comparisons will be made using mathematical models that describe the transmission of the infection. All available data and advice from experts will be used to ensure that realistic models are used for the comparisons. We will also use the models to determine the best use of the limited antiviral drugs available, until a vaccine becomes available. We will consider how the control strategy should be changed if a strain develops that is resistant to the antiviral drugs. In addition, we will determine what data need to be collected during the early stages of a pandemic to help us to determine the best use of the antiviral drugs, the best use of a new vaccine and to check on the development of resistance to the antiviral drugs.Read moreRead less
Biofocussed Prostate Cancer RadioTherapy (BiRT): A Personalised Approach To Delivering The Right Dose To The Right Place
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$753,565.00
Summary
We propose a new approach to treating prostate cancer with radiotherapy to move from the standard whole prostate treatment to a personalised treatment that varies radiation intensity throughout the prostate. We will mathematically combine features that influence radiotherapy effect from advanced imaging, clinical and biopsy information. This model will map out the radiotherapy dose required at each part of the prostate, to maximise killing of the cancer whilst minimising harm to normal tissue
Centre Of Research Excellence In Infectious Diseases Modelling To Inform Public Health Policy
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$2,600,064.00
Summary
Infectious diseases pose a global challenge, with substantial human and economic costs. Mathematical models provide valuable frameworks to assess likely benefits of interventions to control infection spread and burden. Leveraging existing NHMRC support, we will expand modeling capability to inform infectious disease control policy in Australia and our region. Focus areas include vaccine preventable disease, respiratory viruses and emerging pathogens, supported by innovative methods development.
ARC Centre in Bioinformatics. The Australian Centre for Genome-Phenome Bioinformatics will examine how the genome comes to life in the mammalian cell during differentiation and development. We will model, visualise and experimentally validate the complex cellular systems and regulatory networks that control the transformation of genomic information into biological structure and function. We will develop novel approaches and tools to improve health, optimise agricultural production and exploit ne ....ARC Centre in Bioinformatics. The Australian Centre for Genome-Phenome Bioinformatics will examine how the genome comes to life in the mammalian cell during differentiation and development. We will model, visualise and experimentally validate the complex cellular systems and regulatory networks that control the transformation of genomic information into biological structure and function. We will develop novel approaches and tools to improve health, optimise agricultural production and exploit new cell technologies. The Centre will build critical mass and national focus in bioinformatics to generate the human capital and intellectual property that Australia needs to compete in advanced bioscience and biotechnology.Read moreRead less
Investment Approaches and Applications in Financial Markets: Evolutionary Kernel Based Subset Time-Series Using Semi-Parametric Approaches. The project will develop new investment assessments based on subset time-series modeling. Innovative evolutionary kernel smoothing algorithms using semi-parametric approaches will be introduced. The project will make three important applications of this modeling in financial markets: a) benchmarking and evaluation of inflation-indexed bonds; b) evaluation of ....Investment Approaches and Applications in Financial Markets: Evolutionary Kernel Based Subset Time-Series Using Semi-Parametric Approaches. The project will develop new investment assessments based on subset time-series modeling. Innovative evolutionary kernel smoothing algorithms using semi-parametric approaches will be introduced. The project will make three important applications of this modeling in financial markets: a) benchmarking and evaluation of inflation-indexed bonds; b) evaluation of the performance of global diversified investment funds; and c) prediction to provide early warning of the emergence of destabilising deflation or inflation. These three applications will lead to improved risk management practices and investment performance. Recursive algorithms will provide new statistical methods to study investment asset price movements and market volatility.
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The improvement of climate change investigations by developing and applying innovative evolutionary subset time series modelling using semi-parametric sparse-patterned approaches. With an estimated US$6.98 trillion loss indicated in the Stern review, severe climate change will make world climate conditions harsher and more likely include large natural climate disasters. The health of the Australian economy is critically dependent on decisions of environmental managers. However, most problems of ....The improvement of climate change investigations by developing and applying innovative evolutionary subset time series modelling using semi-parametric sparse-patterned approaches. With an estimated US$6.98 trillion loss indicated in the Stern review, severe climate change will make world climate conditions harsher and more likely include large natural climate disasters. The health of the Australian economy is critically dependent on decisions of environmental managers. However, most problems of complexity arising in climate change involve issues on which we do not possess a deep understanding. This project draws upon a set of inter-disciplinary concepts and models centred in neural networks that enable us to advance our understanding of complexity, leading to superior quantitative tools and models to allow for improved environmental decision-making.
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Investment approaches and opportunities in renewable energy and financial resource markets, using semi-parametric approaches to evolutionary subset time-series lattice-ladder modelling. The project findings will help Australian exporters and importers understand and manage energy and resource price risks more effectively. The investment community will benefit through selecting optimal asset allocations and enhancing value to investors. It will also benefit many other agencies, particularly in th ....Investment approaches and opportunities in renewable energy and financial resource markets, using semi-parametric approaches to evolutionary subset time-series lattice-ladder modelling. The project findings will help Australian exporters and importers understand and manage energy and resource price risks more effectively. The investment community will benefit through selecting optimal asset allocations and enhancing value to investors. It will also benefit many other agencies, particularly in the service industries. It is not well recognised that in developed countries, including Australia, the financial service and related sectors account for more than 60 percent of economic activity and employment, so it is critical that more sophisticated statistical methods be established, and practical applications conducted, in order to advance the understanding of complexity management in the financial service and related sectors.Read moreRead less
The improvement of investment approaches by developing and applying bootstrap methods to innovative evolutionary kernel-based subset time-series modelling. With over $1 trillion of investors' monies in the hands of fund managers, the importance of efficient investment decisions across all industry sectors is self evident. Even if the modest target of systematically improving decision making by 1 or 2 % is set, the aggregate economic benefit achieved, given the compounding effects will be enormou ....The improvement of investment approaches by developing and applying bootstrap methods to innovative evolutionary kernel-based subset time-series modelling. With over $1 trillion of investors' monies in the hands of fund managers, the importance of efficient investment decisions across all industry sectors is self evident. Even if the modest target of systematically improving decision making by 1 or 2 % is set, the aggregate economic benefit achieved, given the compounding effects will be enormous. Any developed or developing country will profit from such advanced decision-making approaches. Therefore it is critical that more sophisticated statistical methods be established, and practical applications conducted, in order to advance the understanding of complexity management in the financial investment and other relevant sectors.Read moreRead less
NONPARAMETRIC STATISTICS. Nonparametric statistical methods are techniques that implicitly choose statistical models from exceptionally large and highly adaptive classes. The project aims to develop innovative and practicable nonparametric methods in four areas: Statistical Smoothing, Data Mining, Mixture Methods and Robust Inference. The significance of the work lies in its novelty, the breadth of its practical motivation, and its position at the leading edge of contemporary work in statisti ....NONPARAMETRIC STATISTICS. Nonparametric statistical methods are techniques that implicitly choose statistical models from exceptionally large and highly adaptive classes. The project aims to develop innovative and practicable nonparametric methods in four areas: Statistical Smoothing, Data Mining, Mixture Methods and Robust Inference. The significance of the work lies in its novelty, the breadth of its practical motivation, and its position at the leading edge of contemporary work in statistics. Expected outcomes include new technologies for data analysis.Read moreRead less
Large-scale three dimensional deformation of the lithosphere by subduction and mantle flow. We will be modelling of the dynamics of the Earth's crust and shallow lithosphere in response to the huge stresses created by plate motions. For Australia these stresses are transmitted from the distant plate boundaries, but they have a direct controlling influence on the evolution of the petroleum rich basins of Australia. These basins have reached maturity; further exploration will be in deep water wher ....Large-scale three dimensional deformation of the lithosphere by subduction and mantle flow. We will be modelling of the dynamics of the Earth's crust and shallow lithosphere in response to the huge stresses created by plate motions. For Australia these stresses are transmitted from the distant plate boundaries, but they have a direct controlling influence on the evolution of the petroleum rich basins of Australia. These basins have reached maturity; further exploration will be in deep water where geophysical prospecting methods are unreliable. Model-driven "exploration geodynamics" methods such as those we are developing will be needed to support traditional exploration techniques in these areas.Read moreRead less