Nowcasting and Interpreting the Australian Economy. This project aims to investigate methods for nowcasting and interpreting the Australian economy. This is determining the current state of the economy and the factors contributing to it.
This project expects to generate new knowledge on how unconventional, new, data sources and innovative methods can be used to in nowcasting and how the Australian economy can be modelled.
The expected outcomes include timely new indicators of the state of the ec ....Nowcasting and Interpreting the Australian Economy. This project aims to investigate methods for nowcasting and interpreting the Australian economy. This is determining the current state of the economy and the factors contributing to it.
This project expects to generate new knowledge on how unconventional, new, data sources and innovative methods can be used to in nowcasting and how the Australian economy can be modelled.
The expected outcomes include timely new indicators of the state of the economy, and the factors contributing to it. This should provide significant benefits through informing the conduct of Australian macroeconomic policy, as the appropriate policy response depends not only on knowing the current state of the economy but understanding the economic factors underlying it.
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Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE230100029
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$345,197.00
Summary
Variational Inference for Intractable and Misspecified State Space Models. State space models (SSMs) are popularly used to model economic variables such as inflation and financial volatility. Variational inference is a technique that allows for fast implementation of SSMs, but whose properties are yet to be understood. This project aims to study the properties of variational inference for SSMs used in economics.
This research will develop new variational inference techniques to improve inferent ....Variational Inference for Intractable and Misspecified State Space Models. State space models (SSMs) are popularly used to model economic variables such as inflation and financial volatility. Variational inference is a technique that allows for fast implementation of SSMs, but whose properties are yet to be understood. This project aims to study the properties of variational inference for SSMs used in economics.
This research will develop new variational inference techniques to improve inferential and predictive accuracy from SSMs. An expected implication of this project is that it will expand the ability of economic institutions to employ larger SSMs, which will allow for more accurate models for economic variables. This will provide significant social benefits by leading to better informed economic policy.
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Closing the Gap Between Theory and Data in Macroeconometrics. This project aims to bring econometric models (the empirical vehicle for inference) and economic models (the theory) closer together. A new model is intended to be proposed that will address a significant issue with the interpretation of the outputs of the econometric models. As a first contribution, the project is expected to develop the model and an inferential framework for this model using probability theory on manifolds. In a sec ....Closing the Gap Between Theory and Data in Macroeconometrics. This project aims to bring econometric models (the empirical vehicle for inference) and economic models (the theory) closer together. A new model is intended to be proposed that will address a significant issue with the interpretation of the outputs of the econometric models. As a first contribution, the project is expected to develop the model and an inferential framework for this model using probability theory on manifolds. In a second contribution, it is expected to construct an algorithm to permit inference leading to outputs useful to policy analysts. The model is intended to be parsimonious, which facilitates the development of a time-varying version to allow the model to evolve with the economy and provide better policy guidance.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE200100693
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$405,458.00
Summary
Financial Cycles and the Macroeconomy. The project aims to measure and understand the drivers of the financial cycle. As unsustainable financial conditions, such as excess credit, tend to precede financial cycle busts, which often eventuate into recessions, the project aims to also shed light on the interaction between the financial cycle and macroeconomy. These aims are expected to be achieved through the application of a new set of econometric tools to estimate and interpret financial cycles. ....Financial Cycles and the Macroeconomy. The project aims to measure and understand the drivers of the financial cycle. As unsustainable financial conditions, such as excess credit, tend to precede financial cycle busts, which often eventuate into recessions, the project aims to also shed light on the interaction between the financial cycle and macroeconomy. These aims are expected to be achieved through the application of a new set of econometric tools to estimate and interpret financial cycles. The expected outcomes of this project include new insights for institutions such as the Reserve Bank of Australia and should provide significant benefit through the appropriate design of macroeconomic policy.Read moreRead less