Nobody knows anything? Applying pari-mutuel prediction markets to the motion picture industry. This project will explore the predictability of unreleased motion pictures' theatrical box office revenues using incentive rich pari-mutuel prediction markets. The mechanism will promote price discovery and associated probability estimates that will benefit those already investing in the industry as well as encouraging new investment.
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE140101014
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$349,785.00
Summary
Extending economic design to non-market settings: An experimental study of mechanism design with intention-based preferences. Mechanism design is the engineering side of economic theory, which starts with assumptions regarding human nature and builds economic systems to best maximise efficiency according to these assumptions. This project studies mechanism design in experimental settings where individuals exhibit a desire to be kind to those who have been kind to them and unkind to those who ha ....Extending economic design to non-market settings: An experimental study of mechanism design with intention-based preferences. Mechanism design is the engineering side of economic theory, which starts with assumptions regarding human nature and builds economic systems to best maximise efficiency according to these assumptions. This project studies mechanism design in experimental settings where individuals exhibit a desire to be kind to those who have been kind to them and unkind to those who have not. Such preferences are common in many non-market settings and can have dramatic effects on the efficiency of potential mechanisms. The ultimate goal of this project is to develop applied mechanisms that are robust to heterogeneity in such intention-based preferences and which can be used in bilateral exchange, contract design and many other non-market settings.Read moreRead less
The analysis of social networks. This project aims to explore the role of social networks in training policies, education, banks, and political beliefs. Networks are central to many activities and can help address adequate policies such as targeting key players in networks. The project will develop theoretical issues about the design and implementation of network models and policies, present empirical evidence on the importance of network effects in these activities, and determine the key player ....The analysis of social networks. This project aims to explore the role of social networks in training policies, education, banks, and political beliefs. Networks are central to many activities and can help address adequate policies such as targeting key players in networks. The project will develop theoretical issues about the design and implementation of network models and policies, present empirical evidence on the importance of network effects in these activities, and determine the key players in real-world networks. This project could increase education and help the police and financial authorities.Read moreRead less
Bayesian analysis of individual decisions in health and labour economics. This project aims to exploit emerging Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to develop new approaches to modelling economic decision making. These methods will generate insights into two current and important policy debates. This includes (i) marijuana, alcohol and tobacco use and legalisation of marijuana use; and (ii) parental leave policies, maternity leave decisions and mothers' labour market dynamics. Although p ....Bayesian analysis of individual decisions in health and labour economics. This project aims to exploit emerging Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to develop new approaches to modelling economic decision making. These methods will generate insights into two current and important policy debates. This includes (i) marijuana, alcohol and tobacco use and legalisation of marijuana use; and (ii) parental leave policies, maternity leave decisions and mothers' labour market dynamics. Although policies play an important role in observed health and labour market behaviours, their exact effects on individuals' decisions and outcomes are often difficult to quantify due to the complex nature of the decision process. Outcomes from the project will include new evidence of changes in substance uses under different legal scenarios and provide benefits such as yielding vital evidence on labour market and health behaviour impacts to support policy makers and strengthen Australia's research capacity in Bayesian analysis.Read moreRead less