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Economic policy when interest rates are zero. This Project studies economic policy when interest rates are zero. Low interest rate environments constrain monetary policy because central banks cannot lower rates to raise demand. We exploit recent international experience with zero rates to understand why new policies have had mixed success. We argue different outcomes across countries arise because of different degrees of credibility and familiarity with new policy initiatives. We provide empiric ....Economic policy when interest rates are zero. This Project studies economic policy when interest rates are zero. Low interest rate environments constrain monetary policy because central banks cannot lower rates to raise demand. We exploit recent international experience with zero rates to understand why new policies have had mixed success. We argue different outcomes across countries arise because of different degrees of credibility and familiarity with new policy initiatives. We provide empirical support for this view and study the consequences of imperfectly credible policy. We characterize how monetary policy (conventional and unconventional) and fiscal policy can be used to greatest effect in low interest rate environments and quantify the welfare implications for Australia. Read moreRead less
Supporting Entry and Growth of Australian Businesses via Tax and Transfers. This project aims to characterise the optimal tax treatment of business income for insurance and efficiency purposes. Using new data for Australia, the project expects to first identify key determinants of businesses creation, growth and exit, before and after COVID-19. In light of those determinants, the project expects to develop original macroeconomic models integrating firm dynamics into optimal taxation frameworks. ....Supporting Entry and Growth of Australian Businesses via Tax and Transfers. This project aims to characterise the optimal tax treatment of business income for insurance and efficiency purposes. Using new data for Australia, the project expects to first identify key determinants of businesses creation, growth and exit, before and after COVID-19. In light of those determinants, the project expects to develop original macroeconomic models integrating firm dynamics into optimal taxation frameworks. Expected outcomes include formulating fiscal policies that provide adequate stimulus to businesses, by balancing public insurance and income inequality. This should deliver evidence-based inputs to promote Australia's post-pandemic recovery, through the design of a fairer and more efficient business tax and transfer system.Read moreRead less
Distorted Beliefs and Asset Price Disconnect Puzzles. Asset price booms and busts have broad ranging implications for households. Despite this, models used for policy analysis struggle to explain asset prices and their implications for the macroeconomy. This project will deliver frontier macro-finance research to inform academics and policymakers on how to model asset price booms and busts, to explain why equity and house price falls appear to have small versus large effects, and how to design e ....Distorted Beliefs and Asset Price Disconnect Puzzles. Asset price booms and busts have broad ranging implications for households. Despite this, models used for policy analysis struggle to explain asset prices and their implications for the macroeconomy. This project will deliver frontier macro-finance research to inform academics and policymakers on how to model asset price booms and busts, to explain why equity and house price falls appear to have small versus large effects, and how to design effective policy responses. Led by internationally recognized experts in macroeconomics, this research proposal is perfectly positioned to deliver scientific peer-reviewed research and embed outcomes through evidenced partnerships with the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Federal Department of Treasury.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE210100137
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$347,889.00
Summary
Global Economic Uncertainty, Liquidity and Monetary Policy in Australia. This project aims to analyse the impact of global trade and financial uncertainty on the Australian economy and provide quantifiable policy prescriptions. This project expects to generate new knowledge in the area of monetary and macroeconomic policy using an innovative approach with search and matching frictions, to formalise how investors respond to higher uncertainty given their liquidity requirements. The intended outco ....Global Economic Uncertainty, Liquidity and Monetary Policy in Australia. This project aims to analyse the impact of global trade and financial uncertainty on the Australian economy and provide quantifiable policy prescriptions. This project expects to generate new knowledge in the area of monetary and macroeconomic policy using an innovative approach with search and matching frictions, to formalise how investors respond to higher uncertainty given their liquidity requirements. The intended outcomes of the project include offering a new theory with the potential to guide future research and novel quantitative application to Australian macroeconomic data. This should provide significant insights for institutions such as the Reserve Bank of Australia and benefits through the design of policy.Read moreRead less
Productivity, growth and unemployment in economies with frictions. This project aims to examine decisions driving productivity, growth, and unemployment in macroeconomies with frictions. It examines how government (fiscal, monetary, and education) policies determine these decisions, and identifies the best configurations of these policies. It will construct dynamic general equilibrium models of economies to analyse the causal structure behind productivity changes, growth and unemployment. It wil ....Productivity, growth and unemployment in economies with frictions. This project aims to examine decisions driving productivity, growth, and unemployment in macroeconomies with frictions. It examines how government (fiscal, monetary, and education) policies determine these decisions, and identifies the best configurations of these policies. It will construct dynamic general equilibrium models of economies to analyse the causal structure behind productivity changes, growth and unemployment. It will conduct quantitative experiments using simulations, to estimate optimal government policy design settings. This project expects to identify policies that promote productivity, growth and employment.Read moreRead less
Banking System Competition and the Macro-economy. Australia has one of the most concentrated banking sectors in the world, generating concerns regarding its efficiency. This project aims to develop unified frameworks to understand and evaluate quantitatively how the structure of the banking industry affects the macro-economy and provide policy recommendations for establishing a healthy and efficient banking industry. This project expects to improve understanding of the welfare trade-off between ....Banking System Competition and the Macro-economy. Australia has one of the most concentrated banking sectors in the world, generating concerns regarding its efficiency. This project aims to develop unified frameworks to understand and evaluate quantitatively how the structure of the banking industry affects the macro-economy and provide policy recommendations for establishing a healthy and efficient banking industry. This project expects to improve understanding of the welfare trade-off between bank competition and economic well-being to enable policymakers to better determine the optimal concentration of banking sector in Australia. This will enhance the productivity and international competitiveness of Australia’s financial system and the broader economy.Read moreRead less
Large dynamic time-varying models for structural macroeconomic inference. This project aims to broaden the range of macroeconomic models that have an integrated capacity for both greater realism and efficiency in analysis. This approach will be applied to two contexts at the forefront of current macroeconomic research, the effects of noisy productivity signals on business cycles and the effects of fiscal policy shocks. Flexible macro-econometric models underpin accurate inference by economists ....Large dynamic time-varying models for structural macroeconomic inference. This project aims to broaden the range of macroeconomic models that have an integrated capacity for both greater realism and efficiency in analysis. This approach will be applied to two contexts at the forefront of current macroeconomic research, the effects of noisy productivity signals on business cycles and the effects of fiscal policy shocks. Flexible macro-econometric models underpin accurate inference by economists and policymakers and the project outputs should provide widespread and significant benefits by improving policy and boosting Australia’s comparative advantage.Read moreRead less
Nowcasting and Interpreting the Australian Economy. This project aims to investigate methods for nowcasting and interpreting the Australian economy. This is determining the current state of the economy and the factors contributing to it.
This project expects to generate new knowledge on how unconventional, new, data sources and innovative methods can be used to in nowcasting and how the Australian economy can be modelled.
The expected outcomes include timely new indicators of the state of the ec ....Nowcasting and Interpreting the Australian Economy. This project aims to investigate methods for nowcasting and interpreting the Australian economy. This is determining the current state of the economy and the factors contributing to it.
This project expects to generate new knowledge on how unconventional, new, data sources and innovative methods can be used to in nowcasting and how the Australian economy can be modelled.
The expected outcomes include timely new indicators of the state of the economy, and the factors contributing to it. This should provide significant benefits through informing the conduct of Australian macroeconomic policy, as the appropriate policy response depends not only on knowing the current state of the economy but understanding the economic factors underlying it.
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The Role of a Central Bank’s Balance Sheet in Shaping the Economy. In response to the global financial crisis, the world’s major central banks cut their rates to near zero and implemented untested unconventional monetary policies, significantly expanding the size and composition of their balance sheets. More than a decade later, the Reserve Bank of Australia is considering similar balance sheet policies. This proposal aims to develop various frameworks that can be used to simulate and evaluate w ....The Role of a Central Bank’s Balance Sheet in Shaping the Economy. In response to the global financial crisis, the world’s major central banks cut their rates to near zero and implemented untested unconventional monetary policies, significantly expanding the size and composition of their balance sheets. More than a decade later, the Reserve Bank of Australia is considering similar balance sheet policies. This proposal aims to develop various frameworks that can be used to simulate and evaluate when and how to eventually undo unconventional monetary policies in order to prevent a prolonged recession. Thus this research proposal will contribute to the current Australian monetary policy debate while providing some insights on how best to implement such policies, improving the living standards of Australians.Read moreRead less
Gross credit flows, credit reallocation, and the macroeconomy. This project aims to construct measures of credit reallocation from regulatory bank-level data for Australia and other countries. The project intends to develop empirical models able to evaluate the role of credit reallocation on aggregate output and a theoretical model with search and match frictions to evaluate quantitatively the role of bank credit in explaining macroeconomic outcomes. The project expects to provide significant be ....Gross credit flows, credit reallocation, and the macroeconomy. This project aims to construct measures of credit reallocation from regulatory bank-level data for Australia and other countries. The project intends to develop empirical models able to evaluate the role of credit reallocation on aggregate output and a theoretical model with search and match frictions to evaluate quantitatively the role of bank credit in explaining macroeconomic outcomes. The project expects to provide significant benefits for policymakers for assessing the interplay between monetary and credit policy, formulating macroeconomic and macro prudential policies, and shedding light on the causes of productivity dynamics in Australia, boosting its comparative advantage.Read moreRead less